This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Betting Picks Today
The first weekend of the College Baseball season was an overall profitable one for yours truly. My entire slate's bottom line is a little misleading thanks to Sunday's tank job. Usually, I'm not a big Sunday MLB guy with my plays, which is something I have picked up over the years. It could end up being that way in College as well, but we'll wait and see. The Week 2 schedule has some real heavyweight fights, so let's see what the baseball Gods have blessed us with!
As usual, run lines and totals are not out at the time this was written, just the money lines.
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Oregon State Beavers (+100) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-130)
Now THIS is what I've been waiting for. Unfortunately, this matchup is part of another tournament (Kubota College Baseball Series) at Globe Life Field, home of the World Series champion Texas Rangers, so it will be a one-off contest instead of a weekend series. This is a matchup I absolutely expect to see come late June in Omaha.
The Beavers looked every bit the part of a national champ in their first five contests. Although the competition wasn't good, it still confirmed my belief I mentioned in the preseason that this may be the best and deepest lineup in America. Through the young season, this Oregon State team has been lighting up the scoreboards with a team total .331 average, 1.127 OPS, 14 homers, and 52 runs. The production has been coming from basically everywhere, but led by Golden Spikes candidate and potential top five draft pick Travis Bazzana (.450 average, 3 homers, 7 RBI's).
Despite facing LHP Hagen Smith, likely one of the first arms off the board this July, it's absolutely a winnable matchup against an inconsistent Smith, who has had troubles finding the strike zone. Regardless of the destructive fastball that reaches triple-digits and is accompanied by a wipeout slider, the lefty was less than efficient last season. In all 11 starts in 2023, he failed to notch six innings once. Six of those outings went exactly five innings with his deepest being 5.2 IP. With the exception of three starts, Smith had at least 84 pitches by the time he was yanked. A lot of that is due to the 42 walks in 71.2 innings, but you see the point. If Hagen is inconsistent like he was against a much weaker JMU offense - pulled after the first inning - then Oregon State could feast.
The Hogs haven't looked nearly as impressive as their opponent has. The pitching was hit or miss, and the offense followed suit. Long term I'm not worried about this group, but in the short term they definitely have some issues to fix. The lineup lost six legit producers, but replaced them with some notable transfers and freshmen. Arkansas will likely battle Arizona transfer, Aiden May.
May's first start as a Beaver was impressive. He went 5.1 innings, allowed only four hits, two walks, and one earned run, while punching out four. While I wouldn't consider him a shutdown arm by any stretch, he's capable. Because this game is being played in a big ballpark, it's going to be difficult to launch a lot of taters. The best way for Arkansas' lineup to score is to work the counts, draw walks, and combine base hits. May's 2023 saw 97 hits and 33 walks allowed in 75.1 IP, so being patient is probably their best approach.
Before the lines were released, I thought Arkansas might be the favorite here, which was what I was hoping would happen. It gives me confidence to back the hotter team with the better offense with no vig. There's a real chance Oregon State will be throwing up a lot of 10 run games in 2024, and with the way this lineup is mashing, there's no way I can fade them, even against a pitcher as good as Hagen Smith. Give me the Beavers. By the time the game kicks off tomorrow, I'm expecting some big line movement in favor of OSU.
Pick: Oregon State ML +100
ECU Pirates (+105) @ UNC Tarheels (-135)
While ECU-UNC isn't as big as the aforementioned showdown, this is probably one of the best contests on the Friday night schedule. It's another pair of Top 25 squads vying for a monster RPI series win on the young season. Again, we may be seeing the wrong team favored.
The Pirates have the luxury of possessing one of the best arms in the nation in RHP Trey Yesavage, a potential top 20 pick in the 2024 draft. He dazzled in 2023 as the ace of this staff by compiling a 7-1 mark with a 2.61 ERA and 105 K/23 BB ratio across 76 innings of work. His heater consistently hits 97-98 MPH, which sets the tone for his low 80's curveball to keep hitters off balance. A team USA member over the summer, Yesavage has a bright future ahead of him.
The righty will face a potent Tarheel lineup led by one of my favorite players in the sport, CF Vance Honeycutt, another top 10 projected pick. In addition to the next Trea Turner (Honeycutt), UNC rolls out a competent barrage of bats in Parks Harbor (Georgia transfer), Alberto Ozuna, and Casey Cook. This offense had a tough go in last year's showdown when Yesavage carved them up for a 6 IP, 3-hit, 1-ER, 8-K gem.
It's the first big test for freshman lefty, Folger Boaz, who was sharp in his debut last weekend against Wagner. After losing projected ace, Jake Knapp, in the preseason to Tommy John, it's important for the Tarheels to have some stability in the rotation. Facing a solid ECU lineup, it's a must for the rookie to be able to hang with Yesavage. The main guys he needs to subdue will be Jacob Starling and Jacob Jenkins-Cowart, both of whom are capable of leaving the yard. This Pirate lineup is a terrorizer, but it's an all-around solid offense that can take advantage of mistakes and do the little things right.
The contest last season was a pitching duel through six innings. I'd expect Yesavage to repeat that performance. The fact that we're getting plus-money on a talent like him is too hard for me to ignore. I've been of the belief the last two seasons that UNC is extremely overrated and lacks pitching depth. This is an ECU spot.
Pick: ECU ML +105
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