This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Odds: Futures Market Update This Week
It's on to our third "Future Wednesday" play of the season wherein each week I bring you a different future to take a look at for the rest of the College Baseball season. The name has also really grown on me, so that's here to stay.
Week 1 it was the UNC 25/1 College World Series add, and big surprise, you're lucky to get bigger than 15/1 anywhere. In fact, it's basically 10/1 or less almost everywhere. Last week, was a Golden Spikes updates headlined by a few players.
I've mentioned I would like to mix it up each week when possible. The Golden Spikes is at a bit of a standstill at the moment with very few of the realistic candidates out to a blazing start, but I will mention one name that has not been covered. Additionally, I'm going back to a team that should be added to your CWS portfolio. See, it's the best of both worlds.
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College Baseball Future Wednesday: College World Series Pick
Texas Longhorns +4000 (FD)
Next up in the CWS market is the Texas Longhorns, one of the two newcomers to the SEC. Preseason there was a 25/1 price on them to go all the way. And despite a 9-1 start where they've beaten some good/competitive teams, the price has drifted basically everywhere. Though it's head-scratching, we can make uninformed books pay for this mistake. This is the best price currently available.
As you know, this was a team I had in my "to make Omaha" predictions from the preseason. They brought over skipper Jim Schlossnagle from Texas A&M after their tough loss in the College World Series final last year. One of the top pitching coaches in the country, Max Weiner, joined him. Instantly, the pair has instilled a new culture for Texas baseball in an effort to return the blue blood to its former glory.
A ferocious lineup headlined by my Golden Spikes cornerstone candidate, Max Belyeu, has mostly thrived thus far in the early season. It's a deep offense with a lot of contributors after Belyeu (.477 average, 1.290 OPS) like Ethan Mendoza (.424 average, 1.306 OPS), Adrian Rodriguez (.395 average, 1.156 OPS), Jalin Flores (.306 average, 1.005 OPS), and a cavalcade of other studs that will produce big time throughout the year. It's an offense that is legitimately six or seven bats deep with the bottom of the lineup providing capability to keep the machine moving along.
They scored 35 runs out in the Las Vegas Classic this past weekend en route to a three-game sweep of the tournament. A slow second weekend against Dartmouth tanked their overall stats, but this team can flat out rake for average and power.
For now, the one issue with this offense, like almost every other lineup in the sport, is the swing and miss. The 91 strikeouts provide an opportunity for them to continue their improvement. For reference, the Horns have a 22.25 K% at the moment, and the Tennessee Volunteers won the whole thing last year with a 21.90 K%. Just saying.
The pitching has improved immeasurably as well. Weiner has transformed a staff that was a disaster last season to a threat. Thus far, the 1-2 Friday-Saturday punch of Jared Spencer (1.13 ERA/.196 OBA) and Luke Harrison (1.23 ERA/.204 OBA) has proven to be incredible and reliable. In the SEC, you need two legit weekend arms to consistently compete and have a shot at the conference.
The time to iron out these issues starts with the Sunday role. For now, JUCO transfer Kade Bing has assumed that spot, though he's off to a tough go of it with six earned runs allowed in 8.2 innings. His stuff is legit and as he gets more innings, he can definitely turn it around. Otherwise, the bullpen has been a bit of a struggle early on. Don't get me wrong, there are some horses there like Max Grubbs, Andre Duplantier, Dylan Volantis, Grayson Saunier, Ruger Riojas, and Thomas Burns etc. However, the big weakness of this team at the moment seems to be in the pen, but with the arm talent they have and Weiner running the show, I expect them to figure it out during the season.
You can point at any team and say they have a weakness. The Vols could potentially be an exception at the moment, but that's why they're a top program every year. Every CWS winner I've seen the last three years had something I thought could bite them in the behind. But once you get into the tournament, teams sometimes fix it and find a way to survive and advance.
Would I say the Horns are the best team in the country right now? No. That being said, I think they are loaded with monster potential and a great coaching staff. Even with the move to the best conference in the sport, this team should end up being at least a regional host (top 16 team) with an outside shot of hosting a super regional as a national seed (top 8 team). Moreover, the fact you can grab a team like this at 40/1 is nothing short of insane.
I expect this group to be a part of the Omaha 8 in June, and if that happens, you're almost never going to find this kind of value on the board. Teams like Oregon and Wake Forest having better odds just doesn't make much sense.
Moving up to number 12 on D1 Baseball's Top 25 power rankings this week, I think it's a disrespectful rank. This team is definitely top 10 right now. Come and take a piece of the Horns before it's too late.
#Hook'em
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Pick: Texas CWS 40/1
Golden Spikes Award Update
Gavin Kilen, Tennessee +2000 (Caesars)
Transferring in from Louisville, Kilen was a big pick up for the Vols in their quest to run it back to back. It was a nice year for the then-sophomore compiling nine taters, 41 RBI's, 23 doubles, a .330 average, and .952 OPS. He had some late first-round draft juice for 2025 coming into the season, but not many people expected him to jump out to the monster start he's had.
Kilen's already racked up seven Jimmy Jacks, 17 RBI's, 20 runs, a .487 average, and 1.886 OPS in the team's first 11 games. Not to mention, he went full supernova over the weekend down at the Astros Classic on a national stage, going 9-15 with six extra base hits, including back-to-back two-homer games on Friday and Saturday. With likely a dozen scouts present, you can bet Kilen's name has a gigantic star next to it as he climbs up draft boards.
In all fairness, a lot of his early production has come against layups in Tennessee's gimmie part of their schedule in their bandbox of a home field. But I'll tell you this. The Vols have another dangerous lineup in 2025, and while I expect Kilen to naturally regress, he can have a monster season on this team. You can't really pitch around him with the level of depth and production this offense has. Granted, it's not the offense from last season, but it's still pretty damn good.
Kilen was nowhere near my preseason list or even a thought in my head because to jump from his 2024 numbers to a Golden Spikes level candidacy featuring a freak stat line almost never happens. But this is what betting is: adjusting to the market, and securing yourself a position when an opportunity presents itself. Plus, I felt if any Vol would/could win, it would be Dean Curley, another potential 2025 first-rounder.
He opened the season at 60/1 on Caesars (off the board on Bet Rivers), and came back at 25/1 to start the week. I maxed that out, and when he dropped to 20/1, I bet him again. I requested Bet Rivers to open the market to him, so we'll see where he's at over there.
In all likelihood, Kilen won't come close to keeping this pace up, and his candidacy will fizzle out during the grueling SEC schedule Tennessee has on the card. Plus, I expect some of the big time bats to really heat up and make this an interesting race. However, you can't deny the start Kilen's on and if he keeps the pace to the point where he's able to maintain a legitimate case for the award, then who knows. He checks every box of my betting formula if the stats are right.
Therefore, as a portfolio builder and insurance on a leader in the market, I would be grabbing a position at 20/1 for the Vols second basemen. We're likely not going to see another Charlie Condon type of year, where somebody puts together one of the most all-time impressive season in college history. In terms of the power rankings for the award, it's hard to dispute Gavin Kilen being number one right now.
Note: Take a piece on Caesars and wait to see where Bet Rivers puts him at.
Pick: Gavin Kilen to win the Golden Spikes +2000
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