Best MLB Bets Today: Free Expert MLB Picks for Friday, July 28

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Published on July 28, 2023

Best MLB Bets Today: Free Expert MLB Picks for Friday, July 28

Season: 68-79-1 -34.99 units

Prior Article: 3-2 -0.07 units

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Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates

I have been looking into this type of betting play lately with pretty good success. It looks like the OVER in the first 3, 5, and total game in a situation where the starting pitcher is having a bad run.

This is the case with Mitch Keller for the Pirates and his history against this Phillies lineup. Everything lines up nicely tonight for the Phillies to score a lot of runs and early.

Over his last 7 starts, Keller has a 5.27 ERA over 41 innings with a 36:14 K:BB, and 7 home runs allowed. He has gotten rocked in his last two starts for 6 and 8 earned runs. This Phillies lineup has a 27 for 61 H/AB history against Keller.

MLB Best Bets for Phillies at Pirates

Phillies OVER 1.5 runs F3 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +110)
Phillies OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +100)
Phillies OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)

Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants

The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball with a 15-5 record over their last 20 while the Giants are just 10-10 last 20, and 15-15 last 30. There is a big park shift and facing Logan Webb tonight is a tall task, but we are getting PLUS money on the Sox here with Kutter Crawford on the bump. I expect a lower-scoring close game with Boston continuing their strong play.

MLB Best Bets for Red Sox at Giants

Red Sox ML for 1 unit (PointsBet +125)

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Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

I love picking on the worst teams in baseball and the Royals qualify as that. They are 2-8 last 10 and 4-16 last 20. Sonny Gray has owned the Royals in two starts this season for 11 innings and 1 earned run. The Twins lead the season series 9-1 and 58-25 (5.8-2.5 runs per game) for a 3.3-run differential.

Brady Singer got rocked in his only start this year against the Twins for 8 earned runs in just 2.2 innings. The Twins are averaging 5.9 runs per game over their last 13.

MLB Best Bets for Twins at Royals

Twins -1.5 for 1 unit (FanDuel -104)
Twins OVER 5.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

Phillies OVER 1.5 runs F3 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +110)
Phillies OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +100)
Phillies OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
Red Sox ML for 1 unit (PointsBet +125)
Twins -1.5 for 1 unit (FanDuel -104)
Twins OVER 5.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)