This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Australian Open women's singles final will be played Saturday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting at 3:30 a.m. EST in the United States. The pre-tournament favorite is one match away from a third consecutive title, but an American underdog has other plans and is looking for another marquee win after notching one in the semifinals.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Saturday's women's final.
Australian Open Odds: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys
Aryna Sabalenka (-330) vs. Madison Keys (+250)
Sabalenka has won 20 consecutive Australian Open matches, putting her on the verge of a third consecutive title here. She's also 33-1 in hard-court Grand Slam matches since the start of 2023, with the lone loss coming when nerves got to her against Coco Gauff in the final of the 2023 U.S. Open. Sabalenka has grown much more comfortable playing in the latter stages of majors since then, so the world No. 1 is unlikely to beat herself. Nerves could be a bigger factor for Keys, who turns 30 next month and knows that such opportunities don't come around often. This is only the second Grand Slam final for the American, with the other coming back at the 2017 U.S. Open, which Keys lost to Sloane Stephens. Keys is one of the few players capable of matching Sabalenka's power from the baseline, so don't expect either player to cede much ground, looking instead to launch counteroffensives rather than back up and defend.
Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 4-1, most recently beating Keys 6-4, 6-3 on the hard courts of Beijing in October. The American's lone win came in 2021, but Keys also came tantalizingly close to winning their most important previous meeting, a 0-6, 7-6 (1), 7-6 (5) Sabalenka escape in the semifinals of the 2023 U.S. Open. As mentioned earlier, the 2025 version of Sabalenka should be much more comfortable with her status as the favorite late in a Grand Slam compared to that 2023 encounter. Sabalenka won't give this match away, and while Keys has the skill set to take it anyway -- as the world No. 14 showed in her 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 (8) semifinal upset of No. 2 Iga Swiatek -- Keys has much less margin for error compared to Sabalenka in this battle of big hitters. Keys has made at least 69 percent of first serves in all but one match this tournament. Reaching that mark again will be key for her so the American can get on the front foot early in rallies. Swiatek won 62 percent of Keys' second-serve points, and Sabalenka will likely punish it to a similar extent.
