This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells begins Sunday, providing the first opportunities for seeded opponents to face each other. Stadium 1 at Indian Wells is the second-largest tennis stadium in the world after the US Open's Arthur Ashe Stadium, and the entire 16,100-person crowd should be rocking as a popular American looks to upset a higher-ranked opponent against whom he has found success before. On the women's side, a couple of big names may be past their primes but can still generate high-level tennis, while a seeded American could be facing an early exit unless she shows significant improvement compared to her previous match. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Frances Tiafoe (+230) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tiafoe's best tennis comes in front of partisan American crowds, so the 2022 US Open semifinalist and 2023 Indian Wells semifinalist could be gearing up for another deep run here. It's surprising that Tiafoe's such a substantial underdog given the environment and his 3-2 career head-to-head edge over Tsitsipas, including a straight-sets upset at Wimbledon in 2021. Neither player has produced his best tennis so far in 2024; the 11th-ranked Tsitsipas is 10-4 overall but 0-4 against top-30 opponents, while the 18th-ranked Tiafoe is just 7-5.
Angelique Kerber (+170) vs. Veronika Kudermetova
Kerber finally seems to be finding her form after a lengthy layoff while she was pregnant. The 36-year-old German came into this tournament with a single win on her ledger since Wimbledon in 2022, but she has looked like vintage Kerber here with a 6-3, 6-4 first-round victory over Petra Martic followed by a 5-7, 6-3, 6-3 upset of No. 10 seed Jelena Ostapenko. Kerber is one of the smartest and most competitive players on the WTA Tour, so she matches up well stylistically against the erratic Kudermetova. Kerber doesn't beat herself, while the same can't be said of the No. 17 seed, who has struggled to a 5-9 record in her last 14 matches. Seven of those nine losses have come in straight sets for Kudermetova, who goes through extensive periods during which she can't seem to find the court whatsoever.
Honorable Mention
Alexander Bublik (+295) vs. Alex de Minaur
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Andrey Rublev (-320) vs. Jiri Lehecka
Rublev has been the male counterpart to Jessica Pegula in recent years, rarely losing to players he should beat but struggling to make a dent against the few players ranked ahead of him. The No. 5 seed shouldn't have too much trouble against Lehecka, who is 0-9 versus top-10 opponents with just three sets won in those matches over the past calendar year. Rublev has a rock-solid 15-4 record in 2024, and he beat Lehecka 6-4, 6-2 at Indian Wells last year to take a 2-1 edge in their career head-to-head.
Anastasia Potapova (-330) vs. Nadia Podoroska
Potapova came into her own during the Sunshine Double (Indian Wells and Miami) last year, and she has the opportunity to put together another nice run this time of year after Elena Rybakina's (illness) withdrawal cleared this section of the draw for the No. 28 seed. Potapova has a pedestrian 8-5 record to begin 2024, but only two of those losses came to players ranked behind her, and one of those two losses was against Karolina Pliskova, who is arguably still a top-20 player when healthy. The 84th-ranked Podoroska lost in qualifying and got into the draw as a lucky loser, then got lucky again by advancing over Rybakina via default in the second round. The Argentine came into this tournament on a four-match losing streak, and she's most comfortable on clay, with a career hard-court record well under .500.
Honorable Mention
Alexander Zverev (-320) vs. Tallon Griekspoor
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Yulia Putintseva (+135) vs. Madison Keys
Keys' play left a lot to be desired in her season debut, as the No. 18 seed hit two aces compared to eight double faults and faced 16 break points while ultimately needing a third-set tiebreak to survive against 105th-ranked Hailey Baptiste. Keys' serve is normally a weapon, but she's still looking for rhythm in her return from a shoulder injury, and the American will need to raise her level substantially to avoid losing to Putintseva, who took out Tamara Korpatsch and then No. 15 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova without dropping a set. The 79th-ranked Putintseva had been struggling heading into this tournament, but she's a steady veteran who can take advantage of Keys' poor form.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-175) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
The 24th-ranked Pavlyuchenkova is the obvious favorite in this match despite being ranked 11 spots behind her opponent. The veteran Russian's 15-6 record in 2023 includes a 6-3, 6-4 win over Haddad Maia in Adelaide, and Pavlyuchenkova's recent form is reminiscent of the tennis she produced en route to the 2021 French Open final and seven other Grand Slam quarterfinals. Haddad Maia's best tennis has come on surfaces other than hard courts, which helps explain why she came into this tournament on a four-match losing streak and is just 7-7 in 2024. On hard-court play alone, the Brazilian would be well outside the top 25.
Honorable Mention
Thiago Seyboth Wild (-150) vs. Fabian Marozsan
