This article is part of our Game Previews series.
Aston Villa and West Ham United meet Sunday at Villa Park for the 123rd all-time matchup between the clubs from the Midlands and East London, respectively.
Aston Villa will be aiming to return to the win column after a 1-0 midweek Champions League defeat at the hands of Monaco. Newly appointed West Ham manager Graham Potter will face the Villains for the second time in his four games in charge, as West Ham fell 2-1 in an FA Cup Third Round tilt in Potter's debut match.
Aston Villa sit eighth in place on 36 points, just two points back of fifth place in a crowded Premier League table as they challenge for European qualification. The Hammers sit in 14th place on 26 points with a comfortable 10-point cushion between themselves and the drop zone.
Premier League Predicted & Confirmed Lineups
Premier League Schedule and Fixture Difficulty Ranker
HEAD TO HEAD
Aston Villa and West Ham have met on 122 occasions, dating back to 1913 when West Ham defeated the Villans 5-0 in a FA Cup Second Round matchup at Villa Park. The clubs have each maintained their Premier League status since the 2019/2020 season. Since that time, West Ham have won five meetings, drawn four and lost just three. However, Aston Villa has defeated the Hammers in three of their last four meetings.
West Ham lead the all-time series over the Villans narrowly, having won 45 times, drawn on 36 occasions and having suffered 41 losses.
ODDS
Moneyline
DraftKings: AVL -190 Draw +350, WHU +475 (PROMO CODE)
FanDuel: AVL -190 Draw +330, WHU +500 (PROMO CODE)
BetMGM: AVL -185 Draw +333, WHU +450 (BONUS CODE)
Bet365: AVL -188 Draw +333, WHU +500 (BONUS CODE)
RECENT FORM
Aston Villa (LDWWW) are unbeaten over their last five league fixtures, dating back to a 2-2 draw versus Brighton & Hove Albion in December. Over the unbeaten stretch, the Villans are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per fixture.
West Ham United (LWLLL) have been under the tutelage of new manager Potter for three fixtures, with losses to Crystal Palace in the league and Aston Villa in the FA Cup flanking a 3-2 victory over Fulham.
FORMATIONS
Aston Villa are likely to line up in their familiar and well-drilled 4-2-3-1 under Emery. The experienced manager will look for his midfield double-pivot to provide an element of pragmatism to the Villains' buildup, as in their FA Cup victory over the Hammers when Villa earned 59% of the possession.
West Ham lined up in a 4-2-3-1 for Potter's first two fixtures before the Englishman experimented, much to the team's detriment, with a 3-4-2-1 in their most recent fixture that resulted in the team going down a man in a 2-0 loss to Crystal Palace. I would expect Potter to revert to his roots and match the opponent's 4-2-3-1 shape.
LINEUP NOTES & INJURY NEWS
Aston Villa
Manager Unai Emery will face key decisions in the midfield as he determines how to most effectively deploy the Aston Villa starting XI. John McGinn (hamstring), Amadou Onana (hamstring) and Ross Barkley (calf) will be unavailable for the fixture as they continue to ramp up their fitness levels ahead of their respective returns. Key defender Pau Torres (foot) remains weeks away from a return.
With Torres unavailable, Emery has opted for a central defensive pairing of Ezri Konsa and Tyrone Mings. Lucas Digne and Ian Maatsen have alternated starts at left full-back over Villa's last five fixtures, though Digne has been the preferred option for Premier League fixtures this season. Matty Cash is the most apparent selection for Emery on the right side of the defensive unit, having started and played the full 90 minutes in each of Villa's last five fixtures.
In the midfield, Emery's most trusted name on the team sheet is Boubacar Kamara, who has made 14 successive starts across all competitions in the holding midfield role. In weathering the aforementioned midfield injuries, Kamara was partnered in the midfield double-pivot with Youri Tielemans, who dropped back a line, in Villa's most recent fixture, a 1-0 midweek loss to Monaco in the Champions League. Given the lack of options at Emery's disposal, I expect to see this partnership versus West Ham.
Ollie Watkins is likely to lead the line for the Villa attack, having started in each of their last six fixtures, scoring three goals and assisting twice. Arguably the best back-up striker in England, Jhon Duran will be chomping at the bit to impress himself on the match when Watkins tires.
With Tielemans having been dropped from the No. 10 role into the No. 6 role in Onana's absence, Emery opted for Morgan Rogers to play in the attacking midfielder role beneath Watkins during the midweek. In support on the flanks, I anticipate seeing Jacob Ramsey and and Leon Bailey who have combined for two goals and four assists across all competitions this season. Alternatively, less frequently deployed attackers Donyell Malen and Emiliano Buendia are auxiliary options, with Buendia having been handed his first start of the season in Villa's midweek UCL tilt.
West Ham United
West Ham will look to plug the holes in the defensive ranks as they hope to improve on their average of two goals conceded per match over their first three fixtures under Potter.
Konstantinos Mavropanos (suspension) and Jean-Clair Todibo (undisclosed) will be unavailable for selection Sunday, leaving the new manager in a bind with regard to his selection in central defense. Max Kilman has been chosen as a member of the starting XI in each of West Ham's 22 league fixtures this season and is the lone central defender available for selection. Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Emerson have been the most common options in the full-back roles this season with Aaron Cresswell and Vladimir Coufal deputizing at times. If Potter insists on deploying a back-four, one of the aforementioned full-back options will be called upon to serve in central defense.
During their FA Cup loss to Villa in Graham Potter's debut fixture, Potter opted for a defensive midfield pairing of Edson Alvarez and Tomas Soucek. However, with Soucek's characteristics likely to be deployed further up the pitch to plug holes in the attack, I expect Alvarez to join forces with Guido Rodriguez in the middle of the park in an effort to protect the back four.
Perhaps Potter's biggest challenge will be to kick-start a West Ham attack with the sixth-worst scoring record in the Premier League without the help of strikers Michail Antonio (leg) and Niclas Fullkrug (hamstring). In the absence of a typical No. 9, Potter has deployed both Lucas Paqueta and Mohammed Kudus as a false-nine in their last two matches.
With Jarrod Bowen (foot) and Crysencio Summerville (hamstring) each having returned to training with the team and facing fitness tests ahead of the fixture, Potter's options in attack are likely to be more plentiful than when he first arrived in East London. In anticipation of the deployment of a false-nine, I expect the Hammers' attacking quartet to include Soucek, Kudus and Paqueta with Carlos Soler also an option if Bowen and Summerville are unable to pass their fitness tests.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Youri Tielemans: With Aston Villa expected to be short handed in the midfield, look for Tielamans to be the man on the ball at Villa Park. The experienced midfielder has scored once and created five chances while attempting at least one cross and one corner over each of his last five appearances. Presumably being slotted into a deeper position, I expect the Tielemans to play a match-determining, box-to-box role.
Lucas Paqueta: Necessity being the mother of invention, Paqueta has played at all levels of the West Ham formation this season with the exception of the backline. Having been deployed as a false-nine and an attacking midfielder over his last three appearances (three starts), Paqueta has managed to find the back of the net twice. If West Ham are able to pull off the upset away from home, it would be in large part due to Paqueta's ability to link play between the lines and control the tempo of the fixture.
BETTING PICKS & PREDICTION
Premier League Odds Comparisons
Man of the Match: Ollie Watkins
When Villa are able to create fluid attacking opportunities on the counter attack or through sustained possession, the ball inevitably rolls downhill to their star striker. Expect Emery to focus upon a build-up through his midfield to compress the West Ham shape before springing the ball wide to his talented attackers. I back Watkins, who has scored three goals and assisted twice over a six appearance (six start) stretch, to be the weight that tilts the scales in this matchup in the Midlands.
Result: Aston Villa 2-0 West Ham United
UPCOMING EPL FIXTURES
Aston Villa: Feb. 1 at Wolverhampton Wanderers
West Ham United: Feb. 3 at Chelsea
