This article is part of our Football Predictions series.
Bournemouth look to turn their bad form around when they host Fulham on the south coast Monday night.
The Cherries drew with West Ham over the weekend and have only picked up two points over their last six matches. However, the underlying metrics for Andoni Iraola's side are still positive considering they have 8.9 expected points during that time. They're battling for a chance at European football and three points would be massive.
Fulham pulled off a big upset Sunday, handing Liverpool their second Premier League loss of the season. The Cottagers are also battling for a chance at European football, sitting eighth place in the table. They drew Bournemouth 2-2 in the previous meeting, but it's going to be difficult on the road against one of the most aggressive teams in the Premier League.
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Premier League Best Bets for Bournemouth vs. Fulham
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Evanilson has been on fire since returning from injury in late February. The Brazilian scored twice against West Ham on Saturday, which makes it six goals in his last six starts.
His ability to make runs behind a defense, which he did against Fulham, while also being a big aerial threat is what makes him a dangerous striker.
That's important in this meeting because Fulham tend to play in a low, defensive block, which means Bournemouth will likely send in crosses to the center of the box. Evanilson's averaging a little under three shots per 90 in his last six matches, and he should have his chances Monday.
I like the value on him to score at +120.
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Betting on Anytime Assist
If Evanilson is going to put the ball in the back of the net from a cross, then there's a high likelihood that Milos Kerkez is going to be supplying him.
The Hungarian has been important to Bournemouth's attack, bombing down the left side of the pitch to make overlapping runs to combine with Antoine Semenyo. He's made the most off-ball overlapping runs of anyone in the Premier League and has completed 20 crosses into the box.
He's delivered five assists on the season, and at the long price of +900, I like the value on him to have an assist in this match.
Betting on Goal Props
The previous meeting ended 2-2 between these teams and I wouldn't be shocked if that was the scoreline again.
Bournemouth are the best pressing team in the Premier League leading in PPDA (passes per defensive action), danger zone losses forced, ball recoveries, and opponent build-up completion percentage. They use their press to generate a high number of turnovers high up the pitch, which often leads to easy transition opportunities.
The downside of being so aggressive out of possession is that it leaves you exposed when teams are either able to play through that pressure or able to win one-on-one duels when they play the ball long.
Fulham have a couple big strikers who can hold up play and allow them to win second balls and hit Bournemouth in transition. This is one of the reasons Bournemouth are near the bottom of the Premier League in xThreat allowed.
In turn, Bournemouth are good at breaking down low, defensive blocks because they're aggressive and make risky passes to open teams up. They created over two expected goals against Fulham in the previous meeting and I wouldn't be surprised to see them do it again.
I like the value on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at +100
Bournemouth vs. Fulham Betting Picks
- Evanilson Anytime Goalscorer (+120)
- Milos Kerkez Anytime Assist (+900)
- Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 goals (+100)
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