World Cup: Bracket Breakdown

The World Cup bracket challenge is always fun to do with friends (or everyone in the world), whether that's at the official FIFA site or any major outlet. While it's difficult to get a perfect bracket, it's not impossible to predict every team to make it out of group stage. At the official FIFA game, more points are awarded if you predict a perfect group (15 points) than getting the World Cup winner correct (10 points). The best place to start your bracket is to look at the odds, conveniently available in each group preview provided by RotoWire. I'll use the odds but also take risks in certain groups where the favorite is less defined. The World Cup is a tournament where underdogs rarely make runs to the final, which means it's usually not a good idea to go against one of the favorites.

For me, there are only six teams that have a chance to win it all (odds from bet365): Brazil (+400), Germany (+450), Spain (+600), France (+650), Argentina (+900) and Belgium (+1100). After the top six, in terms of odds, are England (+1600), Portugal (+2500) and Uruguay (+2800), and I don't think any of them have enough to win it. Portugal most recently won Euro 2016, but that kind of run doesn't usually happen in the World Cup. They finished third in their group and then won three of their four knockout matches in extra time or penalties.

The following are my projections for each group with odds.

GROUP A

1. Uruguay (-125)
2. Egypt (+550)
3. Russia (+180)
4. Saudi Arabia (+4000)

I'm not sold on Egypt without a healthy Mohamed Salah, but this is a good group to take a gamble on because it's hard to see any of them advancing in knockouts outside of Uruguay. Egypt will try and win low-scoring matches, which won't work as well if Salah isn't himself. However, Russia's depleted and struggling roster is a good side to bet against, even at home. In another group, Uruguay would be hard to trust, but the duo of Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani is too hard to pass up against these back lines.

GROUP B

1. Spain (-200)
2. Portugal (+200)
3. Morocco (+1600)
4. Iran (+3300)

Andres Iniesta is still in the squad, but there are plenty of younger players on the roster, mostly from Real Madrid, that will help the team advance. Morocco would be a good underdog to overtake Portugal in this group, but even though they haven't lost since June 2017, none of those matches were against high-caliber teams. Portugal's defense is no longer a strength due to age, yet the attacking force has improved with Bernardo Silva and Andre Silva helping out Cristiano Ronaldo.

GROUP C

1. France (-350)
2. Peru (+1000)
3. Denmark (+450)
4. Australia (+2000)

Wait, Tim Cahill is still playing? Yeah, pick the Aussies to finish last. Peru aren't getting much respect, but are playing well under Ricardo Gareca. It helps that Paolo Guerrero is back and scored twice in a recent friendly. Denmark have a few playmakers, namely Christian Eriksen, but they have struggled to score in recent friendlies. If France play to their talent level, they'll will all three matches.

GROUP D

1. Argentina (-165)
2. Croatia (+225)
3. Nigeria (+1000)
4. Iceland (+1200)

Once again, Argentina are weaker in the back and in midfield, and that could cost Lionel Messi his shot at glory. The attacking options are plentiful, but that may not be enough in knockouts or even in this group considering the lack of game time against good competition. Croatia are old, but worth a shot if Mario Mandzukic can get going in front of Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic. Nigeria would be a nice sleeper pick, but their top goalie is Ikechukwu Ezenwa, who plays locally. Gylfi Sigurdsson hasn't been healthy since March and without him 100 percent, Iceland are in trouble.

GROUP E

1. Brazil (-350)
2. Switzerland (+600)
3. Costa Rica (+1800)
4. Serbia (+800)

It's Brazil and everyone else in this group, as no one has the talent to compete. Costa Rica were a surprise team four years ago, but those days are gone and they'll have trouble against experienced European squads. The Swiss needed a tiebreaker to get here, yet it can't be overlooked that they tied Portugal in their Euro qualification group. Switzerland's odds are fairly low considering their form compared to both Serbia and Costa Rica, and the hope is that Xherdan Shaqiri can do a little more than he did for Stoke City.

GROUP F

1. Germany (-300)
2. Sweden (+650)
3. Mexico (+500)
4. South Korea (+1600)

The Germans should run through this group with ease. The question is which team will finish second. South Korea could be a worthy gamble only because Mexico and Sweden are led by players who have failed to perform with top European clubs (Carlos Vela/Giovani Dos Santos and John Guidetti, among others). Then again, South Korea recently fell to Bosnia-Herzegovina in a friendly. I'd rather bank on the Swedes with hopes that Emil Forsberg returns to his form from two seasons ago. It also can't be forgotten that Sweden are the main reason both Netherlands and Italy aren't in this tournament.

GROUP G

1. Belgium (-120)
2. England (+120)
3. Tunisia (+1200)
4. Panama (+4000)

Belgium and England should easily get out of this group only because Panama are lucky to be here and Tunisia's top attacking threat is Wahbi Khazri. England remain a difficult team to trust on an international stage and will need some magic from Harry Kane or Raheem Sterling to take down the Belgiums for this group.

GROUP H

1. Poland (+175)
2. Colombia (+135)
3. Senegal (+450)
4. Japan (+750)

This group is up for grabs more than any, as seen in the odds, but I'm not sure I want to go against Colombia or Poland. Even with viable attacking options, led by Sadio Mane, there are worries about Senegal's coach. The same goes for Japan, who replaced their coach in April and most of their top players are past their primes. Colombia advanced to the quarters four years ago and may be better this year with the help of Radamel Falcao up front. For the Polish, Piotr Zielinski is a future star while Robert Lewandowski is their current one.

KNOCKOUT STAGES

Instead of going match-by-match, I'll focus on the three teams that I think can win it all, as well as one dark horse.

BRAZIL

The Brazilians finally have a reliable keeper in Alisson to go with talent at every position. Danilo may be the biggest question at right-back, but that's a minor issue. Neymar, Gabriel Jesus and Philippe Coutinho will be hard to stop, while Casemiro and Fernandinho hold down in the middle. They shouldn't have a problem with either Mexico or Sweden in the Round of 16, and I'm not sure Belgium have the cohesion to win a quarter-final matchup. I also can't back Roberto Martinez (Belgium coach) to reach the next round. All signs point to a Brazil-France meeting in the semis, which could be the match of the tournament. I still think the talent of the Brazilians will shine through in this World Cup, with a much different squad than four years ago.

FRANCE

The only reason not to back the French is their lack of consistency shown in qualification when they managed 18 goals from 10 matches (Sweden scored 26 goals in the same group). I'd have Spain in this spot if it weren't for France's options up front between Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud. Those weapons, along with Paul Pogba, will be enough to get through to the semis, with Portugal or Uruguay possibly being their quarter-final matchup.

GERMANY

A lot of people will pick Germany since not much has changed since the last World Cup. They were rarely challenged in qualification, scoring 43 goals while allowing only four, though the level of competition lacked in their group. The reason for worry has been lackluster performances in recent friendlies against top teams. Still, it's most of the usual suspects for the Germans between Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng in the back to Toni Kroos and Thomas Muller in the attack. This team simply knows how to play under Joachim Low and it's hard to see them going down to a team like Colombia or England (or Poland/Belgium) in the quarters. A matchup with Spain or Argentina would be interesting in the semis, but the balance for the Germans will be overpowering. Spain are relying on Diego Costa up front, while Argentina's midfield will struggle against both of these sides.

PORTUGAL

I had Colombia as my dark horse, but no matter what, their path will likely involve Germany or Brazil in the quarter-final. As for Portugal, a potential matchup with France or Argentina is likely in the quarters. They won Euros two years ago and had no problem in qualification with 32 goals scored and four allowed. The only issue for the Portuguese is that they're counting on some old guys like Pepe and Bruno Alves in the back and Joao Moutinho in the midfield. But due to that experience and some younger talent like the Silvas and Goncalo Guedes, they'll contend with stronger teams. Due to France's inconsistency and Argentina's non-attacking questions, Portugal are worth a shot to make the semis.

Brazil made it to the semi-final four years ago with an arguably weaker squad. Their talent from top-to-bottom will be hard to deal with even for teams like Belgium and England, making another trip to the semis close to a lock. The back line will prove formidable, with Marcelo wreaking havoc on the left side. Throw in some of the most talented and lethal goal scorers in the world and this team will be hard to stop.

World Cup champion: Brazil

World Cup runners-up: Germany