This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Soccer series.
For detailed stats and odds, check out the Fantasy Premier League: Saturday DFS Cheat Sheet.
MATCHES (EST)
10:00 a.m: Crystal Palace v. West Ham
10:00 a.m: Huddersfield v. Arsenal
10:00 a.m: Liverpool v. Bournemouth
10:00 a.m: Southampton v. Cardiff
10:00 a.m: Watford v. Everton
12:30 p.m: Brighton v. Burnley
FORWARDS
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, ARS at HUD ($12,000): It's not logical to spend on Roberto Firmino ($12,500) when Mohamed Salah is almost the same price. Aubameyang has the best odds of any forward to score, and while on the road, it's hard not to pick at least one player against Huddersfield after they gave up five to Chelsea last weekend. Not many of Aubameyang's recent road numbers support his selection, but Huddersfield have lost 11 of their last 12 in league play and their last six at home. Alexandre Lacazette ($11,500) has shown a similar floor and is cheaper, but Aubameyang is averaging 0.67 goals per 90 minutes compared to Lacazette's 0.50, and that's a big difference when you need goals from a top forward. Wilfried Zaha ($10,500) is next in price, but there are few reasons to use him with worse odds to score than the likes of Glenn Murray ($8,000) and Shane Long ($7,500).
Troy Deeney, WAT v. EVE ($7,500): It wasn't long ago that Deeney was closer to $9,000, but without a goal in his last four starts against beatable competition, he's now a value play. The good news is that four of his last five starts came on the road, and the last time he was at home he managed two shots and four chances created. If he can reach a floor of 15 fantasy points, that's worth the price, but there will be opportunities to make the score sheet. Outside of recent wins over Bournemouth and Huddersfield, the Everton back line has been sketchy and is coming off a busy week. When these teams met in December, four goals were scored, and while Deeney wasn't involved in any of them, that could easily change. If you want someone with better odds to score, Murray is in the same range, though that match is expected to be extremely defensive. That's also why I can't bring myself to back Ashley Barnes ($9,000) this week.
Dwight McNeil, BRN at BHA ($7,000): McNeil has quietly provided solid value with at least 11 fantasy points in his last six starts. He doesn't have a ton of upside, but he continues to whip in crosses, which has resulted in almost two chances created per 90 minutes to go with 2.55 shots. Helping his floor is his willingness to get back defensively, as he's averaging 2.55 tackles and 1.20 clearances per 90 minutes. He may not score a brace, but his floor isn't that different from Firmino's. Brighton have also allowed the second-most chances this season, and that's where McNeil will benefit from the wing. I considered Shane Long, but he feels like the ultimate trap since he's already failed to produce in favorable spots this season.
MIDFIELDERS
Mohamed Salah, LIV v. BOU ($13,000): Salah will probably be the highest-owned player on the slate, but it'll hard to fade him even after some recent struggles. All signs point to Liverpool scoring close to three goals, and if that happens it'd be surprising if Salah wasn't involved in at least one of them. And while Sadio Mane ($11,500) has scored in each of the last three matches to go with a slightly better floor, I can't bring myself to go that route. Mane has had his moments, but Salah still has five more goals and six more assists which is not evident in their prices. Meanwhile, Bournemouth have lost their last seven on the road, giving up multiple goals in each, including last weekend to Cardiff.
Luka Milivojevic, CRY v. WHU ($8,000): Milivojevic made the cut last week and he makes the cut again, which is often the case when he's at home and a reasonable price. He has at least 14.9 fantasy points in his last five starts, and he has four goals and 15 chances created in his last eight home matches. Combine his upside from corners and penalties with defensive stats, and that usually pushes his floor to around 10 fantasy points, which is good value. West Ham just drew with Liverpool, but they've lost their last four road trips in all competitions by a combined 11-2 score line. If you want to spend a little more, James Ward-Prowse ($9,000) is home against Cardiff and had a 17-point floor last match.
Tom Cleverley, WAT v. EVE ($6,000): If you need to save money because you spent big on Salah and a forward, Cleverley has been fairly reliable. He won't reach 20 fantasy points, but his floor has been at least 10 points as long as he plays a full 90. More intriguing is that Everton have forced the third-most tackles and sixth-most clearances per match this season. That lines up perfectly for Cleverley, as most of his fantasy stats have come from clearances (six) and tackles (10) in his last three starts. For a little more money, Robert Snodgrass ($7,500) is starting again and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg ($7,500) gets a great matchup in his return from a concussion. Any cheaper and you're looking at guys with similar or worse floors compared to Cleverley.
DEFENDERS
Aaron Wan-Bissaka, CRY v. WHU ($5,000): While some of my usual favorites have moved up in price, Wan-Bissaka has oddly dropped. While he doesn't have the same upside as some of the expensive guys, he's had at least 14 fantasy points in his last four starts, and that's often where his floor is since he accrues a variety of defensive stats. For this match, he'll also have clean sheet potential and that's another reason to trust him. Jannik Vestergaard is the same price, though he relies a little more on clearances as a center-back. There aren't many I'd spend up on, including Andrew Robertson ($6,500), who could easily grab an assist but also has a five-point floor.
Adrian Mariappa, WAT v. EVE ($4,500): I feel like I write about Mariappa every week and he's yet to disappoint. The center-back had at least 14.3 fantasy points in his last five starts and has shown a floor that can get up to 20. That consistency makes him a steal against an Everton team that forces a lot of action, forcing the third-most clearances and sixth-most tackles per game to defenders. I'm not sure there's a better value on the slate.
Steve Cook, BOU at LIV ($5,000): Cook had only 9.1 fantasy points in the first meeting against Liverpool, but all signs point to a much better effort and a floor closer to 15. At least that's where it's been, with 25 clearances and four interceptions in his last three starts. It'd be disappointing if he had another down effort against the Reds since they've forced the second-most clearances and interceptions to defenders this season. If you want a better chance for a clean sheet, Joel Matip and Laurent Koscielny are the same price.
GOALKEEPER
Alex McCarthy, SOU v. CAR ($4,500): I'm a big fan of Vicente Guaita at the same price, but McCarthy has better odds to win and to get a clean sheet. That's mostly because of Cardiff, who have scored just two goals in their last four away games, and seven all season on the road. The odds don't show this, but Guaita has allowed two goals in his last five starts he's finished, while West Ham haven't scored in three of their last four on the road in all competitions. If you prefer backing the odds over prior numbers, McCarthy is the play. Mat Ryan is also at the same price in a match with the lowest-expected goal total.
