This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
There won't be a video on our Youtube page for Monday's Showdown, but there is RotoWire content. If you haven't checked out Kits & Wagers, there are a couple bets in the most recent show for this match (about 24 minutes in) and while it's been a cold week for me, I feel confident about my pick for this match. And since there's a $25 King of the Pitch qualifier, I decided to write some ideas to the DFS void.
3:00 pm: Nottingham Forest vs. Southampton
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
DraftKings Showdown of the Week Fantasy Soccer: Monday EPL Cheat Sheet
Forest have a ton of injuries, but they've had more than 10 since the last international break and it's not a surprise at this point. They are a decent-sized favorite against Southampton with close to a 50-percent chance to win according to the odds, which has to be one of their better numbers of the season.
Southampton have been... spunky at times, but they've still lost five of their last six and look all but headed for relegation unless they can get a couple wins. Prior to oddly being competitive in recent away matches at Newcastle and Arsenal, they failed to score in trips to West Ham, Manchester United and Leeds.
Forest are six points above Southampton and fighting with three more teams for the other two relegation spots. They cannot afford to drop points in this match with Chelsea, Arsenal and Crystal Palace their final three remaining matchups. Given that final run-in, you could consider this a must-win spot for them.
CASH-GAME STRATEGY
Morgan Gibbs-White ($12,000) is at almost max pricing and may not be as popular of a captain because of that. Still, it'll be hard to avoid him and James Ward-Prowse ($9,000) as your cash captains (this is the hyphenated-name slate). I think Forest will come out swinging and Gibbs-White will be in range for a 10-to-15 point floor with upside.
Ward-Prowse has struggled to get there in the second half of the season and while the matchup looks good on paper, he's struggled in similar spots. Then again, he had 14 crosses in the last meeting and managed 14.9 floor points, one of his better outings of the season when these teams met Jan. 4. While the upside may not be there, if you can fit him in, it's still a decent idea to plug in Ward-Prowse for cash games, as he should be in that eight-to-10 point range.
No one else is a must and this is probably a perfect slate to go double goalkeeper in cash games, as these are two of the worst teams in the league and the implied goal total is under 2.5. In that prior matchup, Forest bagged a 27th-minute goal and nothing else happened. Southampton managed eight shots and .49 expected goals compared to 11 and 1.40 for Forest.
If you're on the Forest side, Renan Lodi ($6,400) and Serge Aurier ($6,000) may have the next-best floors with clean-sheet upside. If they're both on the wing, they're my next favorite plays behind the goalkeepers. If you don't know the formation or don't trust OPTA, hit up our discord (rotowire.com/chat) to get the inside scoop.
Anyone is in range for your final spot if you have to punt. Romeo Lavia ($3,800) caught my eye because he's most likely to go a full 90, while cheap center-backs have the clean-sheet upside. Lyanco ($3,200) has been playing as somewhat of a right-back and Moussa Djenepo ($3,000) can be considered, but both are probably in play to go 45 minutes and pick up a yellow card.
TOURNAMENT STRATEGY
Gibbs-White will be the most popular player on the slate, it just depends how you fit him in. While fading him in tournaments could be viable, he'd either have to be injured or Forest would have to score early and then not press the rest of the way. Even when that happened last meeting, he still managed eight floor points.
Brennan Johnson ($9,400) and Taiwo Awoniyi ($8,600) are both solid captain options and if you think it's a 2-0/1 win in which both of them make the score-sheet and Gibbs-White doesn't, maybe you could make it work. You could technically captain anyone from Southampton because no one is guaranteed for 90 minutes outside of maybe Ward-Prowse and Lavia, and anyone could score.
If you're on the Forest clean sheet and win, Keylor Navas ($6,800) captain shouldn't be too hard to build. Plug in two of the attacking players, both wing-backs and then whoever you want for Southampton. Easy, right?
