This article is part of our DFS Soccer 101 series.
In the two weeks since my debut column here on RotoWire, we've seen exciting soccer that resulted in several of my predictions in the last column being tested. Some of my predictions proved accurate, such as Harry Kane and Philippe Coutinho having some breakout games, while others went against my predictions.I pointed out that Kane had an unsustainable conversion rate that was at 3 percent (goals/shots) while taking 32 shots at that point. Kane hasn't played this week yet, but last weekend he converted his first hat-trick of the season and made me look very smart. However, upon further examination, it appears that the reason that Kane scored these goals is because his team finally managed to supply him the ball in favorable positions on the pitch (inside the 18-yard box), including a season-high five passes in the box. Whether this signifies a new commitment to supplying Kane or not remains to be seen, and his performance Monday will surely have us leaning one way or the other.
The other prediction I made pertained to Coutinho, and this one truly surprised me to see him score two goals against Chelsea this weekend as he is generally a low conversion rate player and does not take many shots close to the goal. This week, however, Coutinho's shot selection was very good, as he took two shots inside the box and scored on both of them. If Jurgen Klopp can manage to keep Coutinho in check in terms of his shot selection I expect that he's going to score more goals as the season moves on.
I wasn't all that great however, as I predicted that the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy would slow down as they surely couldn't sustain a high conversion rate. Both of them managed to score this weekend, and while the matchups were very favorable for the Leicester front men, they took 11 shots against a weak Sunderland squad. So while it is predictable that they will eventually tail off, it probably was a bad week to expect that from either of them. Going forward, you can expect a dip if the matchup proves it a bit more difficult than the 19th place team in the table.
So, lets take a look at where things stand currently. Table 1 below shows the top-15 players in terms of touches in the final third. As a reminder, touches in the final third is one of the top predictors for fantasy output, including shots and goals.
| Name | Club | Assists | Chances Created | Goals | Shots | Touches | Touches In Final Third |
| Alexis Sanchez |  | 0 | 19 | 6 | 52 | 821 | 469 |
| Mesut Ozil | | 9 | 47 | 1 | 15 | 827 | 455 |
| Eden Hazard |  | 2 | 29 | 1 | 12 | 747 | 406 |
| Jesus Navas |  | 3 | 21 | 0 | 15 | 646 | 402 |
| Dimitri Payet |  | 3 | 43 | 5 | 24 | 782 | 388 |
| Santi Cazorla | | 3 | 34 | 0 | 20 | 1239 | 382 |
| Ross Barkley |  | 3 | 20 | 3 | 32 | 852 | 359 |
| Phillip Coutinho |  | 2 | 10 | 3 | 47 | 684 | 350 |
| Graziano Pellè |  | 3 | 11 | 6 | 44 | 643 | 341 |
| James Milner | | 3 | 27 | 1 | 17 | 819 | 337 |
| Jamie Vardy |  | 1 | 15 | 11 | 45 | 498 | 329 |
| Robbie Brady |  | 0 | 21 | 1 | 18 | 857 | 328 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | | 4 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 539 | 326 |
| Aaron Ramsey | | 0 | 14 | 1 | 27 | 779 | 323 |
A few notes on the table above:
- As pointed out previously, Eden Hazard remains a high-touch, low-impact player, and with Chelsea's struggles so pronounced lately, the statistical blame seems to fall squarely on Hazard's shoulders. His shot/touch of 2.9 percent is by far the lowest of his career. In fact, of the 104 players who have at least 150 touches in the final third this season, Hazard is ranked 92nd among them in terms of shots per touch.
- Arsenal still has four players represented in the top 15, and chief among them is still Alexis Sanchez. And now with Arsenal relying more on Mesut Ozil and Alexis, you can expect them both to maintain a high involvement rate which they should even create more opportunities as the season progresses.
- Cesc Fabregas, Memphis Depay and Raheem Sterling have all dropped in favor of James Milner, Robbie Brady and Kevin De Bruyne, and if you've followed the performances in recent weeks you won't be surprised. All three of these players have been dropped from the lineup at least once in the last two weeks. Milner and De Bruyne have both been excellent for their squads, while Brady has continued to lead Norwich's attack from the midfield and currently leads the league with 102 crosses.
| Name | Club | Goals | Shots | Touches | Touches In Final Third | Goals/Shots % | Shots/Touches in Final Third % |
| Alexis Sánchez | | 6 | 52 | 821 | 469 | 11.54 | 11.09 |
| Phillip Coutinho | | 3 | 47 | 684 | 350 | 6.38 | 13.43 |
| Jamie Vardy | | 11 | 45 | 498 | 329 | 24.44 | 13.68 |
| Graziano Pellè | | 6 | 44 | 643 | 341 | 13.64 | 12.90 |
| Harry Kane |  | 4 | 37 | 494 | 260 | 10.81 | 14.23 |
| Odion Ighalo |  | 7 | 35 | 433 | 238 | 20.00 | 14.71 |
| Yaya Toure | | 2 | 34 | 807 | 269 | 5.88 | 12.64 |
| Sergio Aguero | | 6 | 33 | 267 | 191 | 18.18 | 17.28 |
| Ross Barkley | | 3 | 32 | 852 | 359 | 9.38 | 8.91 |
| Riyadh Mahrez | | 7 | 32 | 573 | 297 | 21.88 | 10.77 |
| Romelu Lukaku | | 6 | 32 | 555 | 313 | 18.75 | 10.22 |
| Troy Deeney | | 1 | 31 | 701 | 307 | 3.23 | 10.10 |
| Olivier Giroud | | 6 | 31 | 289 | 171 | 19.35 | 18.13 |
| Jonjo Shelvey |  | 0 | 30 | 953 | 210 | 0.00 | 14.29 |
| Sadio Mane | | 3 | 30 | 589 | 295 | 10.00 | 10.17 |
This list includes players from all over the spectrum:
- Scoring Leader:Jamie Vardy is currently leading the Premier League in scoring with 11 goals on 45 shots. He has a very high number of shots from inside the box, which gives him a higher than usual conversion rate (24.4 percent is high even for world class strikers). He is in incredible form, however, and the next matchup against Watford at home shouldn't prove too difficult. Both he and his teammate Riyad Mahrez are due for a slip, however, it shouldn't happen this coming weekend.
- World Class Strikers: One of our world class scorers is injured (Sergio Aguero, so the only one on this list is Alexis Sanchez, who has just an 11 percent conversion rate. I expect he will finish the season around 15-20 percent, so as he continues to take more shots, expect him to score more goals. With injuries to teammates Theo Walcott (thigh), Aaron Ramsey (hamstring) and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (hamstring), Alexis and Olivier Giroud should take on more of the goal-scoring responsibility.
- Middle Tier Strikers: This list includes the likes of Graziano Pelle, Kane, Odion Ighalo, Romelu Lukaku and Giroud. All of them are very capable scorers who should end the season with double-digit goals. They all share a very specific trait: they take lots of shots relative to their touches. At the moment, Kane appears to still be on the low end of goals/shot while Lukaku appears to be scoring more than he should based on his shot rate. Others, such as Giroud and Ighalo, are currently in very good form, scored plenty of goals in recent weeks. Of this entire group, I believe the players I would recommend sticking with are Giroud and Kane, as they both should have more goals in them before they slow down.
- Shot-Happy Non-Strikers: Of course, the final grouping in our table is the shot happy midfielders. Coutinho, Yaya Toure, Ross Barkley, Troy Deeney, Jonjo Shelvey and Sadio Mane. While not all of these players are exactly the same, you'll find that their shots are usually from outside the box generally to "test the keeper." The expected Goals (xG) on those shots is usually very low and every once in a while one will convert. Currently, Shelvey is the only one who hasn't found success in terms of goal scoring, and if history can tell us something, it is that Shelvey will find the back of the net soon. However, with the declined performance of Swansea in recent weeks, it will be tough to recommend him, Though a road game at Norwich may prove beneficial to the Swans.
| Name | Top Striker Teammate | Club | Assists | Chances Created | Touches In Final Third | Assists/Chances Created % | Chances Created/Touches In Final Third % |
| Mesut Ozil | Alexis Sanchez/Olivier Giroud | | 9 | 47 | 455 | 19.15 | 10.33 |
| Dimitri Payet | Diafra Sakho | | 3 | 43 | 388 | 6.98 | 11.08 |
| Santi Cazorla | Alexis Sanchez/Olivier Giroud | | 3 | 34 | 382 | 8.82 | 8.90 |
| Dusan Tadic | Graziano Pelle | | 3 | 31 | 303 | 9.68 | 10.23 |
| Eden Hazard | Diego Costa | | 2 | 29 | 406 | 6.90 | 7.14 |
| James Milner | Christian Benteke | | 3 | 27 | 337 | 11.11 | 8.01 |
| Nathan Redmond | Dieumerci Mbokani | | 1 | 24 | 300 | 4.17 | 8.00 |
| Moussa Sissoko | Ayoze Perez/Aleksandar Mitrovic |  | 4 | 24 | 235 | 16.67 | 10.21 |
| Riyadh Mahrez | Jamie Vardy | | 5 | 23 | 297 | 21.74 | 7.74 |
| Robbie Brady | Dieumerci Mbokani | | 0 | 21 | 328 | 0.00 | 6.40 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | Wilfried Bony | | 4 | 21 | 326 | 19.05 | 6.44 |
| Jesus Navas | Wilfried Bony | | 3 | 21 | 402 | 14.29 | 5.22 |
| Marc Albrighton | Jamie Vardy | | 4 | 21 | 240 | 19.05 | 8.75 |
| Steven Davis | Graziano Pelle | | 0 | 21 | 191 | 0.00 | 10.99 |
| Ross Barkley | Romelu Lukaku | | 3 | 20 | 359 | 15.00 | 5.57 |
A few thoughts on the table above and how it relates to our squad selections:
- Once again, Hazard looks to be the least productive high-opportunity player. He gets plenty of touches but does not create as many chances as his counterparts. With only 7.1 percent of his touches converting to chances created and only 6.9 percent of his chances created converting to assists, this speaks volumes to the struggles of Chelsea, who seem to be a team that is content to gain an early lead then sit on it and defend for 75 minutes. Until Chelsea can continue pressuring and pushing throughout the game, Hazard carries very little value from a fantasy perspective.
- There are a few players, however, that currently carry little value but should see an improvement of fortunes in the near future. Robbie Brady is chief among them, as he's now partnered with a new striker in Dieumerci Mbokani, who already has a couple of goals in the Premier League since coming over. Between he and Nathan Redmond, Mbokani has two players who can create chances. Brady and Redmond have combined for 45 chances created but only a single assist. These two are due for a turnaround depending on the fixtures. With next week coming at home against Swansea, who have five straight games without maintaining a clean sheet, it could be an opportunity for the midfield duo to change their fortunes.
- Dimitri Payet is in a great position to get an assist this week. The Hammers are playing host to Everton and Payet is on the low end in terms of assists per chances created. Combine that with Diafra Sakho's 10 percent conversion rate from the shots table above and both of these lead to Payet's assist expectation to be the highest of anybody.
