This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
UCL Best Bets for Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich played one of their better matches of the season in the first leg against Real Madrid and only came away with a 2-2 draw due to some defensive miscues. While the Bundesliga title is long gone, Bayern have a real chance to win Champions League, sporting +180 odds to advance.
Unlike Tuesday's match, it's not guaranteed how this one will play out because Real Madrid aren't certain to dominate possession and rack up shots. At home in the first leg against Manchester City, a 3-3 thriller, they managed just 38-percent possession. Of course, Bayern Munich are not on Manchester City's level in terms of ball control.
The first leg was patchy in terms of who had control. Bayern opened the match looking like the better team and then Real Madrid scored with their first shot. Bayern hit a couple early in the second half, including a penalty, and then Real Madrid returned the favor late.
Despite being at the Bernabeu, this figures to be similar in that neither team expects to completely dominate possession or opportunities. That said, Real Madrid are rightly favored at -105 to win and that's where I'm leaning, as they haven't lost at home since April 2023.
How big of a difference will the return of Dani Carvajal be for Real Madrid and can a healthy, more competent center-back help Bayern Munich in place of Min-Jae Kim? Carvajal seemingly should be a big boost to deal with Jamal Musiala, who was a nuisance in the first leg, while Kim was at fault for both goals allowed.
Both teams continually have defensive lapses, but I think getting even odds for Real Madrid is reason enough to take them on the moneyline. Harry Kane is the best goalscorer in the game, but Real Madrid have the better overall side and I'm betting on that to be the difference.
The pace of the match will depend on when and who scores the first goal. If Real Madrid score first, it should really open up because that'll mean Bayern will have to push and be exposed to Vinicius Junior on counters. If Bayern score first, it's less certain because Carlo Ancelotti isn't a desperate manager and may not change tactics until he really has to.
No matter, I think the numbers should be fairly similar to that first leg with both teams having 12-to-15 shots and both getting corners. Unless one team goes up a couple goals, I think possession will be even and neither side will accrue a ton more opportunities.
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Betting on Corners
I know Real Madrid are at home, but I think there's a lot of value on Bayern Munich corners. I took them in a race to five and over 5.5 last match at about even odds and think that's the way to go again. The only way this bet is in trouble is if Bayern score in the first half and finish the final 45 minutes sitting back a little more than normal. If it's even or if Real Madrid score first, I think Bayern corners are in a great spot to hit.
The first move is Bayern over 4.5 corners at +110. Race to five corners is worth a look at +215, but I almost think race to seven at +500 is the better move. If Real Madrid are leading at all in the first 60 or 70 minutes, there's a decent chance Bayern will have more possession and could be pressing for more corners late in the match. I don't think it's crazy to suggest Real Madrid could be leading late and Joshua Kimmich could rack up corners well over seven. Going further, race to nine corners is +1400.
If you hate corner race bets, Bayern Munich +.5 corners in the first half is a fine play at -115.
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Betting on Shots
Similar to PSG on Tuesday, the shot props on Real Madrid are a bit juiced. Vinicius is -160 and Jude Bellingham is +110 to have at least three shots. Vinicius is averaging 2.74 shots per 90 minutes in UCL play, while Bellingham doesn't have more than two shots in each of his last six starts.
As usual, I prefer to use these as parlay pieces instead of taking bad odds by themselves.
If you parlay Kane two or more shots, Leroy Sane at least one, Vinicius at least two and Toni Kroos at least one, you get to +100 odds. Kroos is the biggest ask, but he seems to always show up in big spots and is in play for a free-kick shot.
Single-Game Parlays
For this SGP, I'm taking all the safe versions of what I already recommended. That includes Real Madrid double chance and lower numbers on corner overs, as well as a few of the shot props listed.
By itself, I like both teams over 3.5 corners at +120 odds, though you could opt for over 2.5 corners at -215 in a parlay.
Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich Betting Picks
- Real Madrid to win -110
- Bayern Munich over 4.5 corners +110
- Bayern Munich race to 7 corners +500
- SGP: Kane 2+ shots + Vinicius 2+ shots + Sane 1+ shot + Kroos 1+ shot = +100
- SGP: Real Madrid double chance + both teams over 3.5 corners + Kane 2+ shots + Vinicius 2+ shots + Sane 1+ shot + under 2.5 goals 1H = +380
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