This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The busy schedule has been a pain for a lot of teams, and it's led to some defensive-focused play, namely from Liverpool and Manchester United. Liverpool are winning matches, but Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane aren't racking up chances like earlier in the season and their overall numbers have dipped since Champions League began. A lot of teams are kind of playing not to lose, which should lead to more upsets as the season moves along.
Tottenham beat Brighton, but they managed just 43 percent the possession, while Everton looked like a mid-table side in their loss to Newcastle. The Premier League has always been the most competitive league in Europe, and possibly the world, and there's a chance that will be enhanced in the coming months as the fixtures pile up. Whether or not that's a benefit to bettors remains to be seen.
LAST WEEK
For some reason, I stopped playing it safely last week and it bit me. For the most part, I read Gameweek 7 fairly well, but unfortunately, I didn't make the best moves for my final bets. I've yet to read Crystal Palace correctly this season and then at the end of last week's article, I went off the rails and backed Burnley. Making things worse, I correctly projected the Liverpool v. West Ham match, but I took the Hammers at +1 instead of +1.25, resulting in a push. I even said in my article, "if you want to play it safe, take +1.25." I did not play it safe.
At the least, I'm positive on the season if you're betting $100 on every play.
THE WEEK AHEAD
It seems like Brighton play well almost every match, they just struggle to put everything together and whenever they drop focus, the opponent capitalizes. Fortunately, Burnley haven't capitalized against anyone this season, so it's a perfect spot for Brighton -113 to win. That may be the case, but I'm not sure Brighton have enough quality in their attack against a defensive side like Burnley, and it doesn't help that Neal Maupay missed out last week.
It's the same case for Southampton at -120 to win against Newcastle because Danny Ings is set to miss out. The Saints are playing well, but I can't trust them to win their first match without Ings, especially against a side that beat them twice last season. Because of those Southampton injuries (Ryan Bertrand is also likely out), I think there's an edge with Newcastle to win or draw at +100. Newcastle have taken points in four of their last five matches, and they won each meeting last season by a combined 3-1 score line. When these teams met last March, Southampton were a -155 home favorite with fans and then lost 1-0. Sure, Moussa Djenepo was sent off in the 30th minute, but Newcastle also had to start Dwight Gayle, and this time, there will be no fans.
Saturday's highlight is undoubtedly the early match between Everton and Manchester United. No matter who plays for Everton, their defense has been suspect all season, allowing multiple goals in each of their last four matches, including only one against a top club (2-2 draw against Liverpool). Manchester United have been a bit all over in terms of production, but I'll give them a pass for not scoring against Arsenal and Chelsea. Yes, they've played a bit more defensively, but the return of Anthony Martial could change that and Marcus Rashford has been a beast outside of those last two league matches. Even if James Rodriguez doesn't play, I think this match will be plenty open and the -132 odds for over 2.5 goals isn't bad. If James misses out again, I'll probably make a play on Manchester United to win at +143.
At some point, Sheffield United are going to turn it around and steal three points from someone, though it probably won't be against Chelsea. Either way, the Blades haven't lost by more than a goal in their last six matches and that includes back-to-back contests against Liverpool and Man City. I probably won't make it an official play, but Sheffield United +1.25 (+100) is an option if you believe their defensive-mentality will be enough against a Chelsea side who may have tired legs. Of note, Chelsea are home in Champions League play Wednesday.
I'm more intrigued by the Sunday Showdown, mainly because Manchester City shouldn't be a -107 favorite against Liverpool without fans. City dominated the last matchup, but Liverpool also already won the league at that point. The Reds have more traveling to do midweek, but Pep Guardiola is running his players into the ground more than Jurgen Klopp, so that shouldn't matter. Those things combined lead me to Liverpool -112 to win or draw. There are few things that separate these teams, and if you can get almost even odds on one side to win or draw, you have to take it.
It's a similar situation between Leicester City and Wolverhampton, mainly because the former is getting a bit too much love after beating Leeds on Monday. The Foxes are getting healthy and have stringed together some wins, but none came against a side like Wolves, who prefer to suffocate opponents and limit quality opportunities. That's why both meetings between these teams last season resulted in no goals, as Leicester managed just four shots on target despite controlling possession in each contest. Instead of leaning into Wolves at -157 to win or draw or the under 2.5 goals at -155, there are favorable odds if you bet that both teams aren't going to score at -115. In that situation, you can get another scoreless draw or even a 1-0 or 2-0 result. There has been a scoreless team in three of Leicester's last four matches and four of Wolverhampton's last five.
THE BETS
Newcastle to win or draw +100
Everton/Man United over 2.5 goals -132
Liverpool to win or draw -112
Leicester/Wolves both teams won't score -115
Parlay: Brighton win/draw (-162), Manchester United win/draw (-230), Tottenham win/draw (-770), Arsenal win/draw (-530) = +140
