This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Teams were either tired following the international break or things are getting back to normal. After a high-flying start in which matches were averaging 3.79 goals per contest, Gameweek 5 slowed down to just 2.8, closer to the norm. Out of the 28 goals scored, 17 came from three matches.
Maybe it'll be an outlier, but with European competition ahead, it only makes sense scoring will continue at these levels. Plus, a lot of the weaker teams added new players just before the break, meaning sides like Fulham and West Brom should improve as a whole, though maybe not enough to get out of the relegation zone.
LAST WEEK
I said I was going to play it safe last week (whatever that means) and it worked. I hit all of my bets and enter this week at 11-13 overall. If you bet $100 on every play I've made, you'd be in the green (barely).
My main strategy was to focus on win/draw bets (Everton and Fulham) and both managed to hit, somewhat luckily. I correctly read the Man City/Arsenal match, which oddly had the highest projected total on the slate. Maybe my best projection was between Tottenham and West Ham even though I didn't bet on it.
"I considered a play on West Ham, but there's a decent chance that would blow up in my face. And instead of taking Son Heung-Min to score the first goal at +380, I'm going to pass."
West Ham went down three goals and then grabbed three late to steal a point, while Son scored first and hit at +380.
Clearly, it felt good to win some bets again, but it's important to not get too confident because it's possible this week will be the opposite. I likely hit my bets because things returned to normal, but if they go back to numerous seven-goal thrillers, I may not have as much luck.
THE WEEK AHEAD
I've hit the first match of the gameweek all but once, though this week, the odds between Aston Villa (+133) and Leeds United (+195) are tricky. Instead of looking at either side, I'm leaning toward the under 2.5 goals at +102. A few weeks ago, I would've grabbed the over at first sight, but Leeds have been playing a bit differently, and that's led to four goals total in their last three matches. They've controlled the pace in their last three, and even had 52 percent possession against Man City, but they've struggled to find that finishing touch against teams with solid back lines. That's why I think this match could go in a similar way, finishing 1-0 to either side or even 1-1. Villa are fine accepting the blows with Emiliano Martinez in net and then will pounce when the opportunity presents itself, similar to the Leicester City win.
Manchester City are also lacking that finishing punch despite having Sergio Aguero back, and I think West Ham are a decent play at home, even without fans. You could take them at +1 (+155) or play a little safer at +1.25 (+110). As long as the Hammers don't lose by more than one goal, you'll get your money back and I think they showed against Tottenham not to bet against them.
While I think Fulham looked a lot better with a new roster, I'm not willing to bet on them yet. Instead, I'm betting on goals between Man United and Chelsea. While United gave up just one goal to Newcastle, I doubt this match is a repeat, mainly because Timo Werner and anyone in Chelsea's attack is better than Callum Wilson and Joelinton. In addition to traveling to France on Tuesday, the Red Devils have injuries on their back line. You could either take over 3.5 goals at +155 or focus on one of the sides. I prefer backing the side that didn't have to travel midweek (Chelsea were home v. Sevilla) and that leads me to Chelsea over 1.5 goals at +110. They're slowly figuring things out up front, and I'm not sure United can contain them no matter who is on the back line.
I feel like Liverpool are going to dominate Sheffield United, but they scored three total goals in two matchups last season and I don't think taking over 2.5 goals at -110 are good enough odds. The other part is that the Blades have yet to give up more than two goals in a match this season.
It's the same situation for Everton +135 to win because even though I like those odds, the suspension of Richarlison doesn't help and Southampton have found something since losing to Tottenham 5-2. However, I may consider throwing the over into a parlay or taking over 2.5 goals at -130 as a straight bet. Everton are scoring, but they're also allowing goals, a good combination for betting overs. More fun would be taking Dominic Calvert-Lewin at +400 to score first (Danny Ings is +380).
The odds are a bit strange between Wolves (-137) and Newcastle (+430), only because Wolverhampton were almost a +200 underdog against Leeds on Monday. I don't think Newcastle are good, but they've been fine and should be better than last season. They've had to sit back and play defensively against better teams like Man United and Tottenham, but Wolves haven't been playing like a top team despite coming off a win. Wolves have struggled to get going up front and shouldn't be a -137 favorite against anyone. Even better, these teams drew both meetings 1-1 last season and that's why I'm taking Newcastle to win or draw at +114.
For Monday, there's a simple approach to betting with Brighton at -134 to win. West Brom played better against Burnley, but that's not saying much. Brighton were unfortunate to not beat Crystal Palace in their last match, as the lone shot they conceded came from a weak penalty call. I think they're a touch more clinical in front of net than West Brom, which will be the difference.
While Tottenham are in the last match of the week, they're a great parlay piece at -175 to win. They'll be looking to bounce back after a disappointing draw against West Ham, and they're miles ahead in terms of talent compared to Burnley.
THE BETS
Aston Villa/Leeds United under 2.5 goals +102
Chelsea over 1.5 goals +110
Newcastle win/draw +114
Parlay: Tottenham ML (-175), Brighton win/draw (-435), Liverpool ML (-420), Southampton/Everton over 1.5 goals (-420) = +199
