This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
UEFA competition is back, which means the action is non-stop. Going back to last Saturday, there will be nine straight days in which a Premier League team has a match. Of course, that doesn't scratch the surface because the League Cup returns next midweek.
That being the case, I wouldn't put too much into midweek matches just yet, mainly because most of the top teams are fairly deep. Sure, there are some like West Ham and Liverpool who don't often play much of a bench, but for the most part, all of the UEFA teams have quality backups at every position. Even then, it's not like Liverpool need much of a bench, as their players have shown in past seasons that they can play tons of matches without much of a break.
THE PLAYS
Everyone is taking the under between Wolves and Brentford, and as of writing, under 2.5 goals was at -180, likely one of the lowest implied totals of the season. That probably means this will be the match Wolves finally find their scoring boots and they hit the back of the net three times. Instead of that route, I think taking a chance on the draw at +230 is worth a look. Both teams are playing everyone close, and even if a side goes up a goal, both have the quality to get one back.
Similar to last week, I think there's a fairly safe parlay in play. Liverpool are -475 to beat Crystal Palace and Chelsea are -650 to beat Southampton. You can take both money lines or ride with Liverpool -1.5 (-155) and Man City -1.5 (-210) to get to +142. Liverpool have won the last three meetings against Palace by a combined 13-0 score, while Man City beat Southampton 5-2 in their most recent meeting. Both clubs are playing well, and I'll continue to bet on them at home against most competition.
While I've stuck with mostly home sides the first couple months, I've hit on teams like Liverpool away at Leeds and Leicester at Norwich. It's not my favorite thing to do, but when the odds are intriguing, it's worth looking at.
Watford have won the last four meetings with Norwich and are a +235 underdog against Norwich. I know both are promoted sides, but I'm not sure anyone should be a +235 underdog against Norwich right now. This will probably turn into a trap, but I've been against Norwich all season and while this is a drop in competition, I think Watford have a better overall side. If you don't like them to win, Watford are -140 to win or draw, but I'd rather take the +235 to win in this spot given the opponent.
Elsewhere, Chelsea have a tougher matchup against Tottenham, but I think they're noticeably better and you can get them at -125 to win. If Spurs were at full strength, I wouldn't be on this bet and I'd definitely wait on this until lineups come out because there's a chance both Davinson Sanchez and Cristian Romero are in the XI. If that's the case, I'd play it safe and not take Chelsea, but if Joe Rodon is starting with someone else, Romelu Lukaku will be set for at least one more goal in a win. Plus, it looks like both Son Heung-Min and Steven Bergwijn will miss out again.
I think there is some value in the over 2.5 goals between Aston Villa and Everton at -105. Villa's home games have been a bit more defensive, but that's partly related to their opponents, Newcastle and Brentford. Everton's matches have been extremely up and down as they're working a lot on the counter, and I'm not confident in their back line. Both teams should get opportunities, and I think that's worth betting on goals at nearly even odds. Plus, in two matches last season, the teams combined for 32 shots inside the box. While that didn't lead to a ton of goals, the potential is there and the odds are favorable.
Arsenal are away from home again and worth betting against. They're in almost must-win spots for Mikel Arteta, but that didn't stop them from scoring just one goal from 30 shots against Norwich. Conveniently, Arsenal have had similar issues against Burnley in recent matches, as there have been just three total goals in the last three meetings. As a large home underdog, you can get Burnley +.5 at -115, while under 2.5 goals is surprisingly -125. Burnley love to play teams that struggle to score and this has the makings of a 1-0 result to either side. It'll be ugly and Arsenal will get their chances, but I wouldn't bet against Chris Wood scoring off a counter.
I'd give another play for Sunday, but I don't want to bet on West Ham without Michail Antonio, especially with Man United coming off a midweek loss. West Ham were successful last season because they beat all the bad teams, not because they got points against the best ones. I'm not in a place where I'm taking Man United to win away from home, but at -125, I'll likely be on them come Sunday morning.
