This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I didn't have a good feeling about last week's slate and that's how it turned out. There were a lot of weird matchups and despite feeling great the prior week, I was a bit tentative for Gameweek 26. However, I pushed through and gave some bets for the people, though I didn't have much success.
More than anything, it was some surprising results that highlighted the gameweek with both Burnley and Watford, two sides battling relegation, winning away from home with clean sheets. That doesn't happen every week and something like that may not happen again in the same weekend this season. No matter, Gameweek 27 awaits.
Record: 66-62-6. Up $754 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
I initially wanted to take the over between Southampton and Norwich City, yet I'm leaning toward the Saints to win in a shutout at +150. Norwich are off a couple difficult matchups, but prior to the Liverpool and Man City losses, they managed just .36 expected goals at home against Crystal Palace. As for Southampton, they're on a decent run of form and didn't allow Everton any good looks in their last home match. I would take 'No' on both teams to score, but I'm confident in Southampton to bag one or two and get the win in this matchup, which would be revenge for the prior result earlier this season when Norwich won 2-1 with .45 xG.
Leeds have a massive problem and I'm not sure when they can fix it because Marcelo Bielsa isn't going to change up his tactics and play safer or more defensive. For now, they are conceding goals for fun which is why over 2.5 goals is -150 for the match against Tottenham. I like both teams to score and no draw, though I don't think the value is there at +130.
Brentford have been a mystery the last few months and I think betting against them to score is the route to go. They still have a decent home advantage, but they've been inconsistent and have had trouble scoring all season. On the opposite side, Newcastle have been a bit more defensive focused than anyone expected under Eddie Howe, as they've allowed three goals in their last five matches. Combine that with Brentford's general struggles in front of net and I think both teams will struggle to score in this one. Under 2.5 goals is at -135 so I'll look at 'No' on both teams to score at +100. That plus number definitely feels like a trap given the number on the under, but I'll risk it anyway. It also helps that Allan Saint-Maximin is expected to miss out again and Ryan Fraser has a hamstring issue of his own.
I think Aston Villa are in play for a +220 win, but I can't do it anymore. They've disappointed since the international break and I can't lose any more money on them. Of course, I'm going to ignore that and lose a bet on them next week.
Burnley are suddenly the best team in the league and I don't know when it happened. No matter, I highlighted this play before they beat Tottenham on Wednesday, so there's no reason not to ride Sean Dyche's group again. Crystal Palace are also coming off a win, but they seem to be a little more unpredictable on a match-to-match basis. They'll probably pressure more and have the majority of possession in this match, but that's nothing new for Burnley.
These teams played to a ridiculous 3-3 draw in November and more importantly, Burnley won the three meetings before that draw. I think Palace are favored by too much in this spot, which leads to Burnley -105 on a double chance. Burnley have been drinking a different water the last month and I think that's worth betting on again.
People tend to think goals when they think of West Ham, but that's not a given as under 2.5 has hit in three of their last five home matches. Throw in maybe the best defensive side in the league in Wolves and you have what should be a low scoring, tight match. Wolves won the prior meeting 1-0 as West Ham managed just .33 xG away from home.
Going further, one team hasn't scored in eight of the last nine meetings between these sides. I think both sides will be happy for a 1-0 or 2-0 win and that's why I'm taking 'No' on both teams to score at -115. That hasn't hit in the last two for West Ham, but Wolves are a different animal. They struggle to score and they limit their opponents better than most.
