This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
There are midweek Premier League matches during Champions League because teams have to get postponed games in somewhere. Manchester United played last midweek and have Champions League next week and Liverpool are in the same situation except opposite in terms of competitions. I'd like to give bets for midweek matches, but it's hard to write a week in advance on numbers that will undoubtedly change after the weekend. While I call these Gameweek 26 bets, I'm mainly focusing on weekend matches. If you still want betting suggestions for the next midweek, checking out RotoWireSoccer on Twitter, as we've been posting staff bets for most of games that aren't covered in this article or in Kits & Wagers.
Record: 65-59-6. Up $980 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
I played almost everything spot on last week outside of the Brentford and Crystal Palace result, which I'll never understand. If there was a game that was fixed this season, that was it. Okay, my rant ends there.
I like West Ham to beat Newcastle without Kieran Trippier, but I can't find a good number or perfect bet for the situation. I may end up going West Ham win in a shutout, but I'm not ready to make that move just yet.
Instead, I'm riding Aston Villa, who have similar odds to beat Watford. I thought they would hit the ground running after the break, but that really hasn't been the case, allowing three goals to Leeds and then losing to Newcastle. Still, it's not like they're playing bad. Despite losing to Newcastle, they gave up just .47 expected goals and I expect a similar defensive approach versus Watford, who haven't scored in their last four matches. This is probably a dumb bet because Watford won the prior meeting 3-2 and Ismaila Sarr is expected to return to the XI, but Villa are a better team and Steven Gerrard wants this clean sheet.
Let's go Aston Villa to win with a clean sheet at +160. Villa haven't had trouble scoring at home and while they've given up a lot of goals, I think the drop in competition helps them secure the win to nil.
I wouldn't be surprised if something dumb happens in the Brighton and Burnley game, but I have to bet it anyway. It's two teams who are solid defensively but with massive issues putting the ball in the back of the net. Surprisingly, both teams have scored in five of the last six meetings between them. I just can't believe that will continue given how each has looked the past couple months.
Burnley have failed to score in three of their last four away, while Brighton have failed to score in two of their last five at home. When they met at Brighton last season, it was a scoreless draw. Going further, Burnley have 11 shots and zero big chances created in their last two trips to the Amex. Under 2.5 goals is -150 and 'No' on both teams to score is -135. The odds aren't great, but it's the best number to bet in this matchup that will have no surprises. Brighton will have possession at least 60 percent of the match, it just depends on if either team can break through with one of their few chances.
If you want a Saturday parlay, Liverpool -800, Arsenal -235 and Manchester City -380 comes out to +102 odds. Instead, I'll simply back Man City to win with a clean sheet at +102. The home team has won and kept a clean sheet in the last five meetings between these teams. The last time Tottenham scored at the Etihad was August 2019 when Erik Lamela and Lucas Moura managed two goals from three total team shots.
Overall, Tottenham have struggled without Eric Dier on their back line, giving up multiple goals in all three matches he's missed recently. Even if he returns, I'm still betting the home side. Man City have held a clean sheet in four of their last five at home and while there's always the chance Harry Kane escapes through with a counter goal, I'll take my chances.
Instead of messing around with another win and clean sheet, I'll just take both teams not to score between Wolves and Leicester at -110. I was originally on Wolves to win at +130, but it was only a few games ago they failed to score against Norwich in the FA Cup. Backing my argument is that the recent history between these teams is almost unexplainable. Despite Leicester's high-end scoring form in recent seasons, there have been just two goals scored the last five times these teams have played, both of them by Leicester in 1-0 home wins.
When they met in August, Jamie Vardy scored in the first half and that was all they needed despite finishing with a .51 xG. I know Leicester matches usually have a lot of goals and they're coming off a Thursday UECL game, but it's hard to ignore recent matchups. Not to mention, Leicester would probably be happy with a point in this spot, having lost their last six trips in all competitions.
