This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It was another successful week in the Premier League betting world, assuming you didn't bet the over on every match. There were just 20 goals scored in Gameweek 9, as only three of the 10 matches had more than two. Players are tired, and that's not going to stop with midweek UEFA play ahead.
Or at least that's the hope. Scoring has been down since the last international break, with the total number of goals being 30 or less in every gameweek. To make it easier to understand, here's the breakdown:
- Gameweek 1: 23 (eight matches)
- Gameweek 2: 44
- Gameweek 3: 36
- Gameweek 4: 41
- (international break)
- Gameweek 5: 28
- Gameweek 6: 19
- Gameweek 7: 30
- Gameweek 8: 24
- (international break)
- Gameweek 9: 20
The reduction in goals has also made it easier to bet, at least for me. Over the last five gameweeks, I'm 13-7 and up $979 if you bet $100 on all of my plays. Not too bad.
I think it's reasonable to assume this kind of play will continue. There are teams like Everton and Liverpool who are always in play for goals, but outside of a select few, almost everyone is struggling to hit the back of the net. Some of that is because of fatigue, but some of that is because a lot of teams are scoring and then hunkering down. Why continue to push your players when you already have three points locked up, especially with the holiday season ahead?
LAST GAMEWEEK
I hit everything last week except for the Liverpool match. I'm not sure why I felt comfortable betting against Liverpool and not Manchester City, but that's what I did. I could've added a few more winners with both Tottenham and Southampton to win or draw, but I still nailed my parlay that featured four different bets resulting in +280 odds.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Friday's match is staring at me, but I don't want to play it because I've gotten Crystal Palace wrong almost every time this season. But hey, I'm here to win. Palace are a +123 favorite against Newcastle despite being held scoreless by Burnley last match. I think Newcastle's recent losses are being overrated a bit, which you can't fault them for, dropping 2-0 to both Southampton and Chelsea. The expected return of Callum Wilson should be a nice boost, and getting them at -148 for a win or draw is hard to pass up. I'm not as confident in the under 2.5 goals at -148, but there have been just three goals scored between these teams in their last four meetings, so it makes sense.
Brighton are coming off a nice win, but Liverpool are a different matchup no matter how many of their players are injured. Most relevant is that Brighton have lost all four matches against Chelsea, Man United, Everton and Tottenham this season with 18 goals being scored in those contests. That leads me to Liverpool -175 to win and over 2.5 goals at -157. Given the sub-par odds, I'd probably consider those numbers in a parlay instead of stretching for Liverpool -1 or over 3.5 goals.
I think you can get better odds on Everton to beat Leeds United at -108. The Toffees haven't figured out their back line, but they returned to form with Richarlison back in the squad last match and I expect that to continue against Leeds, who are struggling to find an identity. Kalvin Phillips helped them hold down the midfield last match, but they still aren't at their best.
If you're scared of Patrick Bamford out-dueling Dominic Calvert-Lewin, it may make sense to go over 2.5 goals at -157 or over 3.5 goals at +163. The odds don't show it, but I think this will be the highest-scoring match of the gameweek. Everton have been prone to allowing multiple goals and they scored 17 in the six matches when Richarlison played. If you favor a side over the other, you can also get Everton over 1.5 goals at -134 or Leeds over 1.5 goals at +170. Both are enticing if you prefer a certain side. Going further, Patrick Bamford is +195 to hit the back of the net, which is somewhat surprising. He has at least one shot on target every match this season and is most likely to score for Leeds.
While my intro talked about taking unders, I also have an inkling Southampton and Manchester United will have multiple goals. As long as their opponent allows it, Southampton are usually fairly open, which is why they lost 5-2 to Tottenham and drew Chelsea 3-3. Man United seem to play differently every match, but I think it's worth a bet on the over 2.5 goals at -114. Southampton want to attack, and that'll only leave them susceptible to the pace of guys like Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford.
My first thought for the Chelsea v. Tottenham match was that there would be goals, however, after thinking about it some more, I'd rather look at the under. Given my uncertainty, I'll probably avoid it altogether. Both teams are playing well offensively and defensively, which usually leads to results that are hard to predict. It wouldn't be surprising if it finished 2-2, but the same goes for a 1-0 match in which Tammy Abraham scores early and then both struggle to get opportunities the rest of the way.
I'd rather focus on teams that play the same every match, and that's Sheffield United. At some point, they're going to figure things out again and it's hard to blame them for their recent schedule in which they were competitive with almost everyone. I think this match will go similarly to the 1-1 draw against Fulham, but taking under 2.5 goals at -162 almost doesn't seem worth it. Instead, you can get both teams to not score at -121 or even Sheffield draw no bet at +105. The 'both teams not to score' bet has been great for me, and I think that makes the most sense between these teams. West Brom have failed to score in five of their last six matches and Sheffield United have four goals in nine.
As an added bonus, I think it's a great idea to take Manchester City and Burnley under 3.5 goals at -139.
THE BETS
Patrick Bamford to score +195
Southampton/Manchester United over 2.5 goals -114
West Brom/Sheffield both teams won't score -121
Parlay: Sheffield win or draw (-190), Everton/Leeds over 2.5 (-157), Liverpool win or draw (-670) = +189
