This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Goals aren't stopping anytime soon in the Bundesliga. Prior to the international break, it was yet another good week to bet over 2.5 goals in every match. Eight of the nine matches had at least three total goals, including five with at least four. I could probably parlay over 2.5 goals in every match and come out with a positive. What's the point in making other bets?
LAST GAMEWEEK
I finished in the green last week because I hit one of those parlays which came out to +263 odds. While it wasn't all overs, I took Schalke and Union Berlin to win or draw their matches and combined it with the Augsburg/Hertha Berlin over. That was one of my only good takeaways from last gameweek because nothing else hit. Hoffenheim didn't score first, Augsburg lost 3-0 and a Werder Bremen draw got my money back. Yay.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Unlike that prior gameweek, this one features a lot of heavy favorites, highlighted by Bayern Munich -835 at home against Werder Bremen. In their last match following an international break, Bayern scored three first-half goals and beat Arminia Bielefeld 4-1. That number leads me to Bayern -105 over 3.5 goals.
Joshua Kimmich is injured, but that won't stop Robert Lewandowski from adding to his goal total. Werder have allowed five goals in their last six matches, but a lot of that is due to their schedule. They gave up four goals to Hertha in their opener and six in this matchup (in Munich) last season. The main reason to not take this bet is that Bayern won 1-0 in the most recent meeting between these teams back in June when there weren't fans. Bayern were a -600 favorite and struggled to get good opportunities, managing just three shots on target.
If you want an early Saturday parlay, Bayern -835 and Monchengladbach -195 to win equals -143 odds. If you add Bayer Leverkusen -180 to that, it's at +166. Leverkusen are the smallest favorite, but they face an Arminia side that have lost four straight and fell 5-0 to Union Berlin last match. Gladbach are at home and play a team that lost three of their last four.
Wolfsburg are a slight favorite against Schalke, who seem to be getting more respect by the oddsmakers because of some recent draws. However, those draws have come against Union Berlin, Stuttgart and Mainz. I'm not sold on Schalke yet, especially their attack, which is why I'm grabbing Wolfsburg to score first (-175) and win. While the moneyline play at +100 is a fine bet, I think taking them to score first and win is worth the extra cash.
This week is a perfect time to capitalize on Stuttgart getting too much respect. I mentioned in my futures article that they've had a favorable early schedule and are still just eighth in the table.
Stuttgart, who are newly promoted, have almost even odds to finish in the top 10 despite sitting tied for eighth after only one match against a top-five side.
That leads me to Hoffenheim at +140 to win, though I may wait on that until lineups come out. While Andrej Kramaric could return from injury, they had a COVID-19 crisis over the break and there's a chance they'll be without numerous starters.
For slightly better odds, Union Berlin are worth a look at +160 to beat Koln. Home-field advantage doesn't exist this season and Koln have taken just three points from seven matches. If you're not a huge Union fan, you could still throw them in a parlay at -215 to win or draw. While Koln are struggling for points, Union have taken points in their last six matches, including a win at Hoffenheim and another a draw at Monchengladbach.
One of the almost-guarantees from the early season is that Mainz matches will have goals because they're allowing a ton. At least three goals have been scored in six of their seven matches and five had at least four. Freiburg have struggled, but a lot of that is because of their schedule with 11 of their 16 goals allowed coming against Dortmund, Leverkusen and Leipzig. In addition to Freiburg at +116 to win, I think this is one of the matches you can parlay the over on at decent odds with over 2.5 goals at -136. I expect both teams to score, with Freiburg winning a 2-1 or 3-1 type match. If that's your thing, 2-1 is +750 and 3-1 is +1400.
I already mentioned a moneyline parlay for Saturday's early slate, but there's also one for the later matches with Leipzig -110 to beat Frankfurt and Dortmund -148 against Hertha Berlin. It's never easy betting after the international break, but betting on better teams to win is usually a good strategy and those two come out to +220. Leipzig have won all matches against non-top five teams, while Dortmund had won four straight prior to their loss against Bayern.
THE BETS
Bayern Munich over 3.5 goals -105
Freiburg to win +116
Parlay: Bayern Munich ML (-835), Leverkusen ML (-177), Monchengladbach (-195) = +165
Parlay: Leipzig ML (-110), Dortmund ML (-148) = +220
Parlay: Union Berlin win or draw (-215), Freiburg/Koln over 2.5 goals (-136), Wolfsburg win or draw (-345) = +227
