This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
There were at least two goals in all but one match in Bundesliga last gameweek and that's kind of how it usually goes. Unlike the Premier League, most teams love to attack and that usually leads to high-scoring matches, as well as upsets outside of the top teams. Even with top players like Robert Lewandowski and Erling Haaland sitting out over the weekend, both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund came away with enough goals to secure three points.
LAST WEEK
Unfortunately, I backed the match that finished with one goal to hit the over and it ended my Bayern and Dortmund parlay. I was also on the losing end of Schalke scoring the first goal against Stuttgart. In all, my plays went 1-2 and my bet for Haaland to score first was disqualified because he wasn't in the team.
Given the surprising number of draws for mid-table sides and that upsets are always in play, I'm focusing on betting draws for underdogs this week. Hopefully, that trend continues.
THE WEEK AHEAD
There have been a decent number of draws in early matches and a few have involved Werder Bremen, as they've drawn 1-1 in each of their last three. I'm not confident enough to take them to draw Koln at +245, but you can take different routes with a draw that favor the home side. I'd consider adding Werder -245 to win or draw in a parlay, but taking Werder -132 in a draw no bet makes sense for a single bet. In that situation, you win if Werder win and then get your money back if it's a draw. Koln have two points from six matches, and I'm comfortable betting against them.
For those looking to parlay favorites, Leipzig are alone in having an overly favorable matchup as Dortmund host Bayern and Leverkusen take on Monchengladbach. I really want to bet against Mainz, who have zero points and sit bottom of the table, but I can't bring myself to bet on Schalke (unless it's a win/draw play).
The odds between Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim stand out the most, mainly because Wolfsburg are a +110 home favorite despite not having a massive edge. Wolfsburg love to sit back and play defensively, while Hoffenheim are the opposite, scoring 10 goals and allowing 10 in six matches. In these situations, I usually like the underdog to score first and that's Hoffenheim at +112. They aren't dealing well with playing Europa League in midweek, but Wolfsburg have just five goals in six matches, and with minimal home-field advantage, I think the odds should be closer.
More odds that appear off are Augsburg as a +188 home underdog against Hertha Berlin +138. I took Augsburg to win last week at -110 and I may do that again. Their two losses came against Leverkusen and Leipzig, and they already beat Dortmund at home. Hertha Berlin have struggled since the opener, taking just one point in their last five matches. Some of that is because of schedule, but they lost 2-0 at home to Stuttgart and their back line has been far from reliable, allowing more than two goals per match. If you like risk, go with the Augsburg moneyline, but you can get them at +112 on a draw no bet. The odds are smaller, but I prefer safety in this spot, especially when you can get even odds between two teams that are even on the pitch.
As usual, most eyes will be on Dortmund (+300) against Bayern (-132) this weekend. They're level at the top of the table and both are running through their Champions League group stages. While it'll be fun to bet this match, I'm not sure taking either side is the best way to go. Bayern won both matchups last season by a combined 5-0 score line, while also winning their Super Cup match 3-2 in September. Taking Bayern -132 is probably the smart play, but I don't like the odds, especially with Dortmund at home. When these teams met in Dortmund in May, it was an even match separated by a top-class goal from Joshua Kimmich. They know each other well and if anything, I think taking under 3.5 goals at -112 may be the best route because the public will be hammering the over between the top two teams in the league. That being the case, it may be best to wait until the day of the match to bet the under.
THE BETS
Werder Bremen -132 draw no bet
Augsburg +112 draw no bet
Hoffenheim to score first +112
Parlay: Schalke win/draw -148, Augsburg/Hertha Berlin over 2.5 -136, Union Berlin win/draw -400 = +263
