This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It's set to be another Bundesliga season dominated by top clubs. Bayern Munich were always going to win, but RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund have both seemed to extend their advantages over lower-tier clubs, allowing five goals in a combined 10 matches. Bayern have allowed eight goals, but they've also scored 22, 10 more than Leipzig, the next highest in the league.
However, that doesn't mean you can't find betting value in other places, and you can still parlay the giants together. A $100 parlay on Bayern and Borussia this week nets you an extra $60. Despite having midweek matches, those teams surely won't lose to Koln and Arminia Bielefeld, right?
Despite a hot start in the Premier League, the Bundesliga remains the highest-scoring major European league. It helps that players like Robert Lewandowski and Erling Haaland score at least once every match, while Schalke allows at least three goals every time out.
The biggest surprise of the early season has been Stuttgart, who already have multi-goal away wins against Mainz and Hertha Berlin while also taking a point from Bayer Leverkusen. Stuttgart finished second in 2. Bundesliga last season, but they weren't dominant, taking 58 points from 34 matches. Now in the top league, they're still averaging about the same number of points per match, albeit it's a small sample.
LAST WEEK
There were no surprises in Gameweek 5, as all of the favorites won: Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig, Borussia Monchengladbach, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen. Keep in mind, most of those teams had midweek matches the prior week. The only other team that won was Wolfsburg and that came against newly promoted Arminia Bielefeld, while the other three matches were 1-1 draws.
Unfortunately, every week isn't that easy. Because of the high-scoring teams and open play, upsets happen, which is why Bayern and Dortmund already have losses.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Going back to Stuttgart, they are +120 favorites against one of the worst teams in the league. While Schalke have had a difficult schedule, they already lost at home to Werder Bremen and drew Union Berlin 1-1. As for Stuttgart, they have away wins against Hertha Berlin and Mainz by a combined 6-1 scoreline. You could take Stuttgart at +120 to win, but I'm going a little safer for my first play, taking them to score first at -146. Schalke have scored a league-low two goals and have yet to secure the first goal through five matches.
While I may eventually put Bayern and Dortmund into a parlay, I'm instead looking at first goal odds. Unlike Bayern, who have numerous players who often score outside of Lewandowski, it's usually Haaland or bust for Dortmund. He has six of the team's 14 goals this season, and you can get him at +245 to score the first goal of the match against Arminia Bielefeld, who have given up seven first-half goals in their last three matches. Haaland is favored to score at -175, and it only makes sense to get better odds on him to get the first one.
Also in Saturday's main slate of matches, there's a chance to capitalize on the odds. I like Eintracht Frankfurt, but I'm not sure they should be -132 favorites against Werder Bremen, especially without fans. While you can throw out the drubbing at Bayern Munich, they drew Koln 1-1 the prior match. As for Werder Bremen, they play defensively and their strong suit is drawing matches, having done so each of their last two contests against Freiburg and Hoffenheim. The loss of Niclas Fullkrug is tough, but I think they keep this lower scoring to secure another point, and you can get them at +108 to win or draw.
Augsburg and Mainz have had two of the harder schedules in the league, but the former has been semi-competitive, namely beating Dortmund in the opener. You could say the same thing about Mainz, except two of their worst performances were against Stuttgart and Union Berlin. I think Augsburg are playing better and getting them at almost even odds (-110) is a simple moneyline bet.
Monchengladbach and Leipzig have been switching their lineups a lot because of Champions League play and that's led to higher-scoring matches. There have been at least four goals scored in each of Gladbach's last three matches, while Leipzig have scored at least two in four of their last five. I think Gladbach's unreliable back line will lead to at least three goals between these teams, and both matchups between them resulted in four goals last season. You could take over 3.5 goals at +140, but I think over 2.5 goals at -180 is a nice parlay piece.
For Sunday, I have my eye on Wolfsburg, one of the more defensive teams in the league, against Hertha Berlin, one of the worst defensive teams. There have been just seven goals scored in five Wolfsburg matches, while Hertha have allowed the third-most goals in the league (12), though some of that can be attributed to schedule. Given the Hertha back line, I think taking Wolfsburg at -118 to score first is the way to go. It's not an official play since the odds aren't great (Hertha -115 to score first), but it's something to consider if you want to do something Sunday.
THE BETS
Stuttgart to score first -146
Erling Haaland to score first goal +245
Augsburg to win -110
Parlay: Bayern Munich ML -625, Borussia Dortmund ML -245, Monchengladbach/Leipzig over 2.5 goals -180 = +154
