YellaWood 500 Preview: The Wild Card of the Chase

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

This weekend the luck factor comes into play like no other race in the 10 events that makeup the Chase for the NASCAR Cup. The Cup Series comes to Talladega Superspeedway for the YellaWood 500 and for the wild pack racing action that Talladega provides. This is the perfect event to throw in with the short tracks, flat tracks, and intermediate ovals that make up the final 10 races in the Chase for the Cup championship. Considering that we've spent the last few weeks racing on intermediate and smaller ovals with few cautions and few crashes, we're in for some major changes as the "big one" comes back into play. The multi-car, multi-line drafts and side-by-side racing at near 200 mph is nothing short of chaotic. Five hundred miles of racing in these tight conditions almost always leads to disaster, and that's where the luck factor comes into play this weekend. Considering that this weekend's race is the second in the Round of 12 of the Chase, the stakes will be even higher than usual. 

A surprise driver, even a non-playoff driver could likely be in the spotlight this Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway. Thanks mostly to the wild action and outcomes that superspeedway racing generates. William Byron took the checkers in the Daytona 500 and Tyler Reddick took the win in the spring Talladega event. Harrison Burton was the shock winner just a few weeks ago in the late summer installment at Daytona. These huge oval races seem more a wild card than ever this season. We could see another surprise or first-time superspeedway winner again this weekend. The two biggest threats to the mystery, underdog driver's hopes for a Talladega victory this weekend would be Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. Both are three-time winners at this 2.66-mile oval and both have demonstrated a lot of speed on the superspeedway tracks this season, but with some bad luck finishing these races. The stakes will be high and so will the nerves, as the consequences of this Chase format is more pressure than ever at this point in the season. When the green flag drops the mayhem will ensue and championship hopes will be made or dashed after 500 miles of racing at 'Dega.

Talladega Superspeedway is unlike any of the other tracks in the Chase, but history still plays a big part. The drivers that tend to run up front and win at this large oval are usually the same drivers each and every time we visit Talladega. As you'll see in the table below, some of the drivers who are vying for the championship are also very proficient at Talladega Superspeedway. Here are the loop stats for the last 39 races at the famous Alabama oval.

The loop stats from Talladega look a bit odd when compared to other tracks in the series.  Right away we notice a lack of drivers like Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell in the Top 10 of this list. Luck plays a large part in winning Talladega. Sometimes it's all in the timing and when to make your move at this oval. The second thing we notice is the lower overall driver ratings. Wrecks play a big part in Talladega racing, and everyone eventually gets caught up in a big one, putting a dent in their average statistical performance. In this season's earlier race at Talladega in April we saw Tyler Reddick surge late to get into the lead and grab the impressive victory thanks to a last-lap, multi-car crash that would end the race under caution. His shootout with multiple drivers was an epic ending to a race that largely ran without many cautions, which made the GEICO 500 a bit of an outlier. We got a dramatic finish without the multiple late cautions and overtime, and it underscores the unpredictability of Talladega races. Michael McDowell had dominated much of that event, yet he was caught up in that final lap crash that ended his chances at victory lane. Yes, indeed, anything can happen at Talladega. The 72 lead changes were on par with the 70 lead changes we saw in this event one year ago and showed the parity we now have in these superspeedway races. Hopefully, we'll see even more passing among the front this weekend, and the ability for cars to work together to run down a faster leader. 

Like most Talladega races, we should see some big multi-car crashes and some late cautions as the urgency gets the best of the drivers in the closing laps. With the big wrecks and caution flags as a result of the pack racing, we should see some of the familiar "sand-bagging" drivers who hang out in the back of the field. Although stage racing has gone a long way towards tempering this possibility, the driver who keeps a low profile most of the race may ultimately be the one to push to the front in the closing laps and make for a thrilling victory. One thing is for certain, a spot in the next round of the Chase is up for grabs and this race helps to equalize the odds for some of the smaller teams. Some drivers will move on to the Charlotte Roval with their championship hopes intact, while others will load the wrecked remains of their race cars onto the hauler and start to think about next season. Here are the drivers who you need to focus on for fantasy racing glory at Talladega Superspeedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – The 2024 season has had its ups-and-downs for the No. 12 Ford team, but Blaney has been doing all he can to advance deep into the playoffs. He has struggled throughout the Chase, but this is the one-hit wonder race that could propel Blaney into the next round of the playoffs. The superspeedway ovals have been a real niche of this driver and team the last few seasons. Blaney is a three-time Talladega winner and winner of this event one year ago. He's had some bad luck in the superspeedway races of this season, but that could change on a dime. He'll be in the mix for the win and automatic berth to the next round of the Chase on Sunday afternoon at Talladega.

Michael McDowell – The Front Row Motorsports veteran has had some of the best speed this season on the big ovals. McDowell qualified on the outside pole for the Daytona 500 and won both poles in the spring Talladega and late summer Daytona races. The driver of the No. 34 Ford has led a staggering 68 combined laps on the superspeedways in 2024. Whatever they're doing at the FRM shop, they're doing right because they are unloading fast cars for these races. McDowell's luck finishing these events this season has been rough, but it's encouraging to know he's been the man to beat in each of the three superspeedway events of this season, in some cases right up until the final laps.  

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is a three-time Talladega winner, and he's led 490 career laps at Talladega Superspeedway. While his luck at this track has been shaky the last season or two, you cannot deny the 11 Top-10 finishes he's collected here and all the racing up front that led to those three victories. The No. 22 Ford team's speed on the superspeedway ovals this season has been unquestionably good. Logano has an average start of 3.67 and he grabbed the pole in the Daytona 500. He has led a combined 101 laps between Daytona and Talladega just this year. His luck finishing these races has been poor, but make no mistake, Logano has thrown his hat in the ring to win all season on the superspeedway tracks.

Chris Buescher – Over the past two seasons, it's hard to discount what Buescher has achieved on the superspeedway ovals. He's really been one of the more consistent performers. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has one win and four Top-10 finishes for a sharp 11.4 average finish on the big ovals the last two seasons. Buescher has led 16 combined laps in his last two superspeedway starts and he nabbed a strong 10th-place finish at Daytona a few weeks ago. He may not have the accolades and accomplishments of the other drivers in the contenders list this week, but we believe he can't be overlooked for this Talladega battle. It's almost a certainty that we'll see Buescher battling among the leaders in the final laps of Sunday's YellaWood 500.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – The six-time Talladega winner has been pretty sharp the last couple seasons on the large ovals. He's led 68 combined laps and grabbed three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in the seven events between Daytona and Talladega. Keselowski's last of six Talladega wins came in 2021 and he also finished runner-up at the track in April of this year. With a career 48-percent Top-10 rate at the Alabama speedway, that's a strong statistic of consistency over a lot of years of racing. His career 15.4 average finish at this oval is a real testament to his consistency at Talladega despite the many hazards. Talladega Superspeedway was not only the sight of Keselowski's first Cup Series win, but it's been a track of tremendous success over the years. 

Chase Elliott – Over the last six superspeedway races the Hendrick Motorsports star has two Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes and he's led a total of 46 laps. Only an unfortunate crash at Daytona a few weeks ago has tarnished that consistent record. Elliott is a two-time Talladega winner and he's led over 200 laps in 17 starts at the huge oval. The Hendrick Motorsports star has been very strong on these superspeedway tracks the last couple seasons. Elliott grabbed a steady seventh-place finish in this event one year ago and he's collected three Top-10 finishes in his last five Talladega starts. The driver of the No. 9 Chevy led five laps and cracked the Top 15 earlier this season at the Alabama oval. Elliott is often racing among the lead pack in the closing laps in these high-risk superspeedway races. 

Kyle Busch – Busch has been a high risk/reward driver on these big ovals the last few years. However, we believe he has the speed to be on the homerun side of the ledger this weekend. Busch led eight laps and finished runner-up after contending for the win a few weeks ago at Daytona. That was an eye-opening performance for this driver and team. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet won at Talladega Superspeedway in the spring of 2023 and that's one of three Top 10's (43-percent) that he's collected on the big ovals the last two seasons. Busch is not a part of the championship picture, but that shouldn't stop his aspirations in this 500-mile battle. He has a ton of upside this Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway.

William Byron – Byron has definitely flipped the switch "on" in regard to superspeedway racing this season. He grabbed a win in the Daytona 500 to kickoff the campaign and finished seventh at Talladega earlier this spring. Byron is in great position for a deep drive into the Chase playoffs, assuming he doesn't find trouble Sunday at Talladega. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been a bit of a tough-luck performer earlier in his career at the Alabama oval, but's he rallied to post a three-race Talladega Top-10 streak entering this weekend. Byron was in position to finish well at Daytona a few weeks ago but would be rolled up in one of the late-race crashes. He has a pretty high ceiling for Sunday's YellaWood 500.       

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Talladega & solid upside

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has been razor sharp the last two seasons on the big ovals. Bowman has three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in the last seven races between Daytona and Talladega. The average finish is coming in at a strong 10.7 across the span. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet doesn't have great career numbers at Talladega Superspeedway with just a 29-percent Top-10 rate. However, his recent power surge the past two years on the superspeedway ovals is what we feel warrants fantasy consideration this weekend. Bowman's Daytona 500 outing netted an impressive runner-up finish, and his spring Talladega performance was an equally strong fifth-place finish in the GEICO 500.

Christopher Bell – Bell is another driver that has experienced some success the past couple seasons on the big tracks. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster nabbed a third-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500 along with 22 laps led in that event. Bell went to Daytona in the late summer and another strong third-place finish in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. He has one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes in his last three Talladega Superspeedway starts. Bell also nabbed both pole positions at Talladega in the 2022 season. He has a lot on the line with the current Chase playoff standings, so we believe the driver of the No. 20 is pointed towards success in Sunday's YellaWood 500.

Ross Chastain – While his Talladega success has only been very recent, it has been very impressive. Chastain won here in the spring of 2022, and he cracked the Top 5 in this event two years ago. The Trackhouse Racing veteran's start here in the spring of this year netted a respectable 13th-place finish. While Chastain's history and success in superspeedway racing isn't long and detailed, his recent success is hard to dismiss. He was a respectable 12th-place at Daytona a few weeks ago and coming off the big win this past weekend at Kansas he's riding a lot of momentum into the YellaWood 500. Chastain should be racing among the leaders in the closing laps.

Daniel Hemric – The Kaulig Racing driver has been a surprise performer in the lower tier of the driver field on these superspeedway ovals. Hemric has managed two Top-10 finishes and a respectable 16th-place in the Daytona 500 this season. The average finish works out to a strong 11.3 average finish. The driver of the No. 31 Chevrolet has shown his skill in this style of racing as he's ascended the lower divisions of NASCAR. Hemric now has five-career Cup Series starts at Talladega Superspeedway and that experience is starting to show. He's claimed two Top-10 finishes in those starts, including his ninth-place finish in April's GEICO 500. Hemric led 8 laps in that event, the last at Talladega, and was conspicuous among the leaders that day.  

Bubba Wallace – Wallace was the winner of this event in 2021 and while his consistency has been better at Daytona, the 23XI Racing driver has proven capable and dangerous at the sister oval in Alabama. He was rolled up in a multi-car crash in the spring Talladega event but showed good speed in that race. Wallace's last five superspeedway races have netted a combined 22 laps led, two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes. He led 16 laps and raced to a strong sixth-place finish at Daytona a few weeks ago. Despite not being a part of the playoff field, Wallace has good potential Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway.

Noah Gragson – The Stewart Haas Racing youngster is the deep sleeper for this week's YellaWood 500 at Talladega. Gragson has shown to be a quick study at this pack superspeedway racing. He led 5 laps and finished a strong ninth-place in the season-opening Daytona 500. Gragson was also successful in the spring Talladega race, racking up a career-best finish at the track in his four-career starts. Despite starting 36th on the grid that day, Gragson piloted the No. 10 Ford to five laps led and an impressive third-place finish. It seems that this young driver and team have learned a few things about getting through the field and knowing when to make their move late in these high-risk races.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is still in the thick of the championship battle, and that will be a big motivator this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time winner at the Alabama oval and has led well over 400 laps here. Hamlin cracks the Top 10 at Talladega at a decent 43-percent rate which is pretty good for this high-stakes form of racing. However, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota hasn't been one of the better performers on the superspeedways the past couple seasons, so that's why we've bumped Hamlin down to the slow down list this weekend. Hamlin has just one Top-10 finish in his last seven superspeedway starts (14-percent) and his finishes just this season on the big Daytona and Talladega ovals is 19th-, 37th- and 38th-place with a noticeable lack of laps led.

Austin Cindric – The 2021 Daytona 500 winner has seen a complete reversal of his fortunes in superspeedway racing the last couple seasons. After the big numbers the young Penske Racing driver posted in 2021 and 2022, Cindric has only managed one Top-10 finish in his last seven starts on the big oval circuit. He has qualified relatively well and he's led laps this season (44 total), but he's been getting shuffled out of the lead pack in the closing laps of these races and been getting poor finishes. Cindric has five-career Cup Series starts at Talladega with two Top 10's. However, he finished a disappointing 23rd-place there this April. With his major lack of performance in this style of racing in 2024, we can't recommend a fantasy racing start for the No. 2 Ford team this weekend in the YellaWood 500.    

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has typically been in our slow down list each time we visit Talladega due to a very uneven record of consistency at this track. He's been eliminated from the championship chase which is noteworthy and his lack of finishing consistency here is troubling. In 39-career starts at Talladega Superspeedway, Truex has only managed nine Top-10 finishes (23-percent) and an inflated 21.0 average finish. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has posted just one Top 10 in his last 17 Talladega starts. Despite leading 16 laps earlier this season at Talladega, he has no Top-10 finishes in his last seven superspeedway starts (19.1 average finish). Clearly, he doesn't possess the luck side of the equation in this style of racing.

Tyler Reddick – Despite his accomplishments this season on road circuits, short and intermediate ovals, Reddick has had his struggles on the big superspeedway tracks. He did win the spring race at Talladega but the circumstances would indicate that was an outlier. The last two seasons he's only managed one Top-10 finish in seven starts and a very troubling 22.0 average finish. Bad luck with getting collected in crashes have been part of the problem, but also just pure lack of speed and the inability to push to the front. In nine-career starts at Talladega, Reddick has only managed three Top 10's (33-percent) and boasts an average finish of 19.2. We would like to believe that playoff implications would spur him to better results this weekend, but this style of racing is clearly one of Reddick's few weaknesses.