Pavin Smith

Pavin Smith

28-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Smith's slide from grace continued for a second straight season in 2023, when he spent nearly as much time at Triple-A Reno (62 games) than in the majors (69). The left-handed hitting outfielder batted .188 (.158 against lefties) in the majors. Being a lefty swinger blocks potential opportunities, as Arizona's starting outfield all bat from that side. The team also re-signed Lourdes Gurriel to be DH and the right-handed alternative in the outfield, further blocking opportunities for Smith. An optimist might see Smith as the strong side of a platoon at designated hitter, which could happen if the Diamondbacks don't add a right-handed DH-type (like J.D. Martinez). He's two years removed from a competent season, but that was a different roster than this World Series crew. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#446
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $740,000 contract with the Diamondbacks in March of 2024.
Rough night in field
OFArizona Diamondbacks
September 28, 2024
Smith started in right field, went 0-for-4 and couldn't track down a couple of flyballs in Friday's 5-3 loss to the Padres.
ANALYSIS
Arizona manager Torey Lovullo went with Smith's offensive potential -- he had six homers and a .310 batting average in September coming into the game -- over Jake McCarthy, a better defender with more range. The move backfired immediately when Smith couldn't track down leadoff batter Luis Arraez's flyball, opening the door to San Diego's four-run first inning. Smith later couldn't track down another fly from Arraez in the fourth that turned into a triple and the Padres' fifth run. The loss left the Diamondbacks outside the final wild-card spot with two games left and could lead to McCarthy replacing Smith on Saturday.
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Batting Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
1
14
9
1
2
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
1
1
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+30%
OPS vs RHP
2024
 
 
+22%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+44%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+20%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .576 131 12 3 18 0 .200 .260 .317
Since 2022vs Right .749 531 64 22 81 3 .227 .331 .417
2024vs Left .754 23 2 1 10 0 .200 .304 .450
2024vs Right .920 135 24 8 26 1 .282 .356 .564
2023vs Left .475 42 5 1 4 0 .158 .238 .237
2023vs Right .682 185 21 6 26 1 .196 .335 .346
2022vs Left .580 66 5 1 4 0 .226 .258 .323
2022vs Right .695 211 19 8 29 1 .219 .313 .383
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+8%
OPS on Road
2024
 
 
+22%
OPS on Road
2023
 
 
+4%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+1%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .684 327 33 8 49 0 .232 .330 .354
Since 2022Away .741 335 43 17 50 3 .212 .304 .437
2024Home .802 72 9 3 15 0 .281 .333 .469
2024Away .977 86 17 6 21 1 .260 .360 .616
2023Home .628 123 13 1 15 0 .210 .358 .270
2023Away .654 104 13 6 15 1 .165 .269 .385
2022Home .665 132 11 4 19 0 .224 .303 .362
2022Away .669 145 13 5 14 1 .217 .297 .372
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Pavin Smith compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.58
 
BB Rate
11.4%
 
K Rate
19.6%
 
BABIP
.280
 
ISO
.277
 
AVG
.270
 
OBP
.348
 
SLG
.547
 
OPS
.896
 
wOBA
.382
 
Exit Velocity
90.2 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
38.5%
 
Barrels/PA
10.1%
 
Expected BA
.293
 
Expected SLG
.529
 
Sprint Speed
23.7 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
43.1%
 
Line Drive %
19.3%
 
Fly Ball %
37.6%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Smith began the season playing regularly against righthanded pitching but was eventually squeezed out of playing when the Diamondbacks decided to look at their up-and-coming young outfielders. Smith was demoted to Triple-A Reno in early July, but soon fractured his wrist and was placed on the 60-day IL. He returned to Arizona in September and played regularly for the final two weeks of the season. For the season, his numbers were down across the board, most notably fanning at a 24% clip along with a dip in Hard Hit rate. Smith hit more flyballs, but that served to hurt his BABIP more than boost power. With first base and the outfield set, Smith will compete for playing time as the Diamondbacks designated hitter. Even with a thin outfield inventory, Smith has very limited appeal, mostly restricted to NL-only.
Now 589 plate appearances into his big-league career, Smith has proven that his contact-heavy approach in the minors translates to the highest level. He's struck out at a 19.4% clip and managed a respectable .329 on-base percentage in that span, solid marks given the context of the modern game. Unfortunately, his inability to hit for power has also carried over from his time in the minors. He's hit groundballs at a 47 percent clip (8.9 degree launch angle), which has limited him to only 12 home runs and a .136 ISO. That's caused some difficulty in determining exactly how Smith fits into the Diamondbacks' - or any club's - future plans. Smith doesn't hit for enough power to provide value at first base, his natural position. Smith has also picked up at-bats at all three outfield positions, but his fit defensively is questionable, particularly given the lack of offensive upside he's shown to this point.
Plate discipline is one of the most transferable skills between the minors and majors, so it's no surprise that Smith posted a better-than-average walk rate (11.4%) and strikeout rate (18.2%) during his first stint as a big-leaguer last season. The sample size (44 at-bats) is admittedly small, but given Smith's consistently elite control of the zone during his collegiate and professional career, there is little doubt about the 2017 first-round pick's ability to get on base. What has prevented Smith from gaining more prospect buzz, however, is his questionable power. Over 1,074 minor-league at-bats, he has hit only 23 balls out of the park (46.7 AB/HR), and he collected just one homer in 37 at-bats with the Diamondbacks last season. The poor power stroke is especially concerning given Smith's primary position (first base), and it could block his path to regular major-league at-bats should it fail to blossom.
Smith's batting profile has been remarkably consistent year to year in his three professional seasons. His strikeout rate has ranged from 10.8% to 12.9% while his walk rate has ranged from 11.3% to 12.1%. He had 12 home runs in 507 plate appearances at Double-A after totaling 11 in 504 plate appearances at High-A in 2018. These plate skills are promising, but those power numbers are a problem, though the 2017 seventh-overall pick did at least show more gap power last year with 29 doubles and six triples, lifting his ISO nearly 40 points. If Smith is to become a major-league regular at first base, he will need more of those doubles and triples to clear the fences. We saw a massive spike in power across baseball in 2019 and many players who were not expected to hit for power did. Keep an eye out to see if more power shows up at Triple-A. It is the piece of the puzzle that will either make or break Smith.
The 2017 seventh overall pick hit a mediocre .255/.343/.392 in 120 games for High-A Visalia, smacking 11 homers after failing to hit a single one in his first 51 professional games for Low-A Hillsboro the season prior. Smith demonstrated excellent control of the zone, walking 11.3% of the time while striking out in just 12.9% of his plate appearances. Players who have these kind of advanced plate skills sometimes tap into more power as they age, or they benefit from the bouncier big-league baseball. If the power never comes it will be hard for Smith to clear the very high offensive bar required for a major-league first baseman.
A college first baseman who received the eighth-highest bonus ($5.01 million) in the 2017 draft, Smith proved after signing that he is a unique offensive talent. He had more walks (27) than strikeouts (24) while finishing third in the Northwest League in average (.318) and OBP (.401) and fourth in wRC+ (136), yet he failed to hit a home run. Of the qualified hitters in that league, he was one of only seven players who failed to homer, which is concerning given his age (21) and position. It is hard to find recent precedent for a college first baseman failing to hit for power in his pro debut and going on to be a quality big-league first baseman. Smith's backers will point to his excellent hit tool -- perhaps the best in the entire 2017 draft -- and say that he will add power as he gets more comfortable against pro pitching. Unless he is going at a nice discount in dynasty drafts, it is probably wise to let someone else bet on the power showing up.
More Fantasy News
Clobbers three-run shot
OFArizona Diamondbacks
September 26, 2024
Smith went 1-for-1 with a pinch-hit three-run home run in Wednesday's win over the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Losing work to Gurriel
OFArizona Diamondbacks
September 25, 2024
Smith is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Remains in lineup
OFArizona Diamondbacks
September 21, 2024
Smith started in right field and went 1-for-5 in Friday's 7-4 win over the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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Goes deep in victory
OFArizona Diamondbacks
September 19, 2024
Smith went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run in Thursday's 5-1 win against the Brewers.
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On base three times
OFArizona Diamondbacks
September 17, 2024
Smith went 1-for-2 with two walks in Monday's 3-2 loss to Colorado.
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Tough path to roster spot
OFArizona Diamondbacks
March 6, 2024
Smith's may not make the Diamondbacks' Opening Day roster, but his clearest path to a spot is likely as a backup first baseman, per Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com.
ANALYSIS
The 28-year-old split most of his playing time in the big leagues last season between right field and designated hitter, but Arizona significantly bolstered its outfield during the offseason. Christian Walker, who is currently managing a minor hand injury, is also locked in at first base, which could allow a standard utility player to fill the backup role there. Smith will have a difficult time cracking the roster, let alone finding worthwhile playing time.
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