Wurth 400 Preview: The Monster Mile

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

Dover Motor Speedway plays host to this week's Wurth 400. This is the one and only race of 2024 at the concrete oval in Delaware. For many years this track has hosted two annual NASCAR Cup Series events, but schedule shuffling reduced that to just one event two seasons ago. Dover Motor Speedway is also known as the "Monster Mile", and for good reason. It's like a super-sized Bristol Motor Speedway, with similar banking and track surface all in a one-mile oval. Dover has a short track feel, but produces the high 160+ mph speeds of the larger tracks on the circuit. The high speeds are due to the 24 degree banking in all turns and the extreme grip that the concrete paved surface provides. It's a lightning fast track, and it produces some exciting, side-by-side racing. As many drivers have shown in the past, it takes a good balance of aggression and patience to tame the monster. It's this balance that the drivers will need to master if they hope to conquer the competition and this fierce track. With this being the first and only race of the season at the Monster Mile, the learning curve will be steep this weekend. Those teams that can adapt the fastest after the green flag drops will be the ones to succeed this Sunday afternoon. This is race No. 11 of the season, so urgency to better one's position in the driver standings will pick up the pace at the Dover oval. We'll surely see some of that urgency in the racing this Sunday afternoon at the Monster Mile.

Since this is our lone race of the season at Dover, we need to check in briefly with the electronic loop stats from this high-banked oval. Current trends at this track should hold pretty true to form this weekend since teams have now been racing with the new generation stock car for two seasons plus now. The Dover oval is such a unique animal that those who have historically performed well here tend to edge out those current streaking drivers. They are easily identified in the table below. The loop stats cover the last 35 races at Dover Motor Speedway.

The Monster Mile has been a track of manufacturer parity since about 2016. Ford, Toyota and Chevrolet have each won at Dover in the last four events there. Chevrolet and Toyota drivers have won seven of the last eight events at Dover. However, Ford has just one win in those last eight races at this one-mile track. The drivers of the blue oval brand have a lot of catching up to do if they hope to get back into victory lane at the Monster Mile for the first time since the 2020 season.

In this event one year ago, we witnessed Martin Truex Jr. rise to strength late and upstage a seemingly stronger duo of Ross Chastain and William Byron to capture the win in the Wurth 400. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota led the final 11 laps of that event en route to capturing his fourth-career Dover victory. The Byron-Chastain duel was really the main storyline of that spring afternoon. Kyle Busch was also strong in his first Dover appearance for RCR, winning the pole, leading 25 laps on the day before fading to 21st-place by the checkered flag. It will be interesting to see if Toyota can hold onto that success in light of some of the parity we've witnessed this season. It would seem to be an uphill battle for drivers like Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick whom all have visited victory lane since March. We'll outline the drivers who will likely dominate and a few others about to make surprise runs at Dover Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – The driver of the No. 19 Toyota is coming off a decent Talladega finish and looking to turn things up a notch coming to Delaware. The one-mile Dover oval has been one of his better tracks during his 18-season NASCAR Cup Series career. Truex has four pole positions, four victories and 19 Top-10 finishes in his 33 starts at the Monster Mile. That works out to a strong 11.4 average finish for his career at the Delaware oval. The Joe Gibbs Racing star also has three-career runner-up finishes at the Dover oval. The reigning event champion seems well positioned to defend that race crown this Sunday in the Wurth 400. His short track performances thus far this season would seem to back that up.

Kyle Larson – Larson hopes went up in smoke during a late-race crash at Talladega last week, but he'll hit the reset button at Dover this Sunday. He has just 15-career starts at the Monster Mile, but they're starts that are packed full with results. Larson has one victory, three runner-up finishes, seven Top-5 and 11 Top-10 finishes in those efforts. That puts his average finish at a sparkling 8.6 at this facility. Larson has led 899-career laps at the Monster Mile, so he's quite used to racing up front here. With two pole positions and three Top-5 finishes on ovals one-mile or less in size already this season, the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has to be seen as one of the top contenders to win the Wurth 400.

William Byron – Byron has been a pretty good short track performer thus far this season. With close to 100 laps led and a victory at Martinsville recently, the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been dangerous on these smaller ovals. Byron will be making just his 10th-career Dover start this Sunday, so the statistical sample size is a bit small. The young driver has three fourth-place finishes in three of his last four starts at the Dover oval. Byron led a whopping 193 laps in this event one year ago and looked locked into victory lane before fading late to fourth-place. He should be racing among the leaders in the Wurth 400 and in contention for the win at the Monster Mile.

Denny Hamlin – After Hamlin's victories at Bristol and Richmond earlier this spring, we feel compelled to believe that this driver and team will rise up and be a factor in this Dover race. Those recent performances on historically strong ovals in his resume is very reassuring heading into the Wurth 400. Hamlin has been a career-long performer at the Monster Mile with one win, 15 Top-10 finishes and nearly 700 laps led. The 46-percent Top-10 rate is above norms and good indicator of potential for the No. 11 Toyota team. Hamlin was a Top-5 finisher in this event one year ago and that's a great sign heading into this Wurth 400. There's plenty of potential for a good performance for Hamlin and his JGR team in this Sunday's event.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – The No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team has been on a roll in recent weeks and they're visiting a great track to keep Elliott on a roll. The young driver has made 13-career starts at Dover Motor Speedway, and they've been eye-popping efforts. Elliott has nine Top-5 finishes in those starts, including two victories. The last of those wins came in this event two years ago. He led 73 total laps and captured the victory in the 2022 Drydene 400. Elliott has been Top 5 or Top 10 on all the short tracks this season with the exception of Phoenix and that's a great indicator for this weekend. With a 9.8 average finish and career 69-percent Top-5 rate at the Monster Mile, you'll find few drivers who are better here.  

Ryan Blaney – The reigning Cup Series champion is coming off a forgettable Talladega performance, but he should have little trouble getting back on track at the Monster Mile. Blaney has been pretty decent on the short tracks this season with a pole position at Bristol and Top-5 finishes at both Phoenix and Martinsville. The driver of the Penske Racing No. 12 Ford has not been a career-long performer at Dover Motor Speedway. With just three-career Top 10's here some fantasy racing players will be tempted to bench Blaney this weekend. We believe that would be a mistake. His last performance at the high-banked one-mile oval netted a Dover career-best third-place finish last April. We believe the notes from that performance will come in very handy for this driver and team this Sunday afternoon. 

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski is on a bit of a heater entering this Sunday's Wurth 400. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford is riding a two-race runner-up finish streak and he has three Top 10's in his last four events. Dover Motor Speedway has been a good oval for Keselowski over the years. He's a one-time winner here and his 11 Top-10 finishes work out to a reasonable 44-percent Top-10 rate. In this event one year ago, the veteran driver scrambled to a steady eighth-place finish in the Wurth 400. Considering his Top 10's in three of the four short tracks events of 2024, we believe this veteran driver and team will be sharp on the high banks of the Monster Mile this weekend. 

Alex Bowman – Bowman has been on a good run this season. He enters this weekend 10th in the driver standings and performing well on short tracks to this point. Bowman has had a lot of recent success at the Monster Mile and his team's experience will show through in Sunday's Wurth 400. Bowman has a win and five Top 5's in his last six Dover starts. The veteran driver missed this event one year ago with a back injury sustained while competing in a sprint car, but Bowman should be up to the task of picking up where he left off at Dover. The No. 48 Chevrolet team have Top 10's recently at both Bristol and Martinsville, and that's a good indicator heading into his 400-lap battle on the Monster Mile.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Dover & solid upside

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran doesn't have the career-long stats at Dover Motor Speedway that grab attention, but his last two starts at the Monster Mile are pretty defining. Buescher won the pole here in 2022, led 18 laps and nabbed an impressive eight-place finish. He followed that up with an equally impressive ninth-place finish on year ago on the high banks of Dover. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has been pretty sharp on the smaller ovals this season with one Top-5, three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes for an impressive 8.3 average finish. We expect Buescher and this race team to be on their game Sunday afternoon in Delaware.   

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has turned around some early career struggles at the Monster Mile in his last two starts at the one-mile oval. Bell has grabbed fourth- and sixth-place finishes at the track since 2022 and lowered his career average finish at Dover to a more acceptable 16.0. Those are a stark contrast to his first three Dover starts where he didn't crack the Top 20. Short tracks have been pretty good for Bell and the No. 20 Toyota team this season. He has a win at Phoenix and three Top-10 finishes in the four events to-date on ovals one-mile in size or less. Much like his Joe Gibbs Racing counterparts, Bell should be pointed towards a Top-10 finish in the Wurth 400.   

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is coming off a big, unexpected victory at Talladega this past weekend. Dover Motor Speedway hasn't been his best track in his brief Cup Series career, but Reddick did capture a strong eighth-place finish at Dover in 2021 and he claimed an equally impressive seventh-place finish at the Monster Mile last year. He'll play off that experience in Sunday's Wurth 400. The 23XI Racing driver has three Top-10 finishes on small ovals this season, but not a lot of laps led. Reddick is a driver with a lot of short track appeal, so Dover's one-mile distance and high banking play to his strengths as a driver. He'll race among the lead pack and battle for a Top 10 at Dover Motor Speedway.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star hasn't been a world beater on the short tracks this season, but he's been improved the last couple times out. Finishes of second- and sixth-place at both Richmond and Martinsville lend some hope to the No. 22 team for this weekend. Logano has 15-career Top-10 finishes at DIS, and that places his career Top-10 rate at 56-percent at this challenging facility. The driver of the No. 22 Ford hasn't been very sharp in his last couple Dover outings and that's concerning, so we've downgraded him to the sleepers list this week as a caution. Still, Logano brings a lot of experience and upside to the table with any start at the Monster Mile. We have to give him a nod of respect in the fantasy sense for just that.

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs has just one-career Cup Series start at Dover Motor Speedway and it came in this event one year ago. He piloted the No. 54 Toyota to a respectable 13th-place finish in the Wurth 400. The young driver will use that experience and build on it for this Sunday's 400-lap high-banked battle. Gibbs has been reasonably good this season on the series' short tracks. His two Top-10 and four Top-20 finishes work out to a respectable 13.6 average finish across the four events. The similar high banks of Bristol yielded 137 laps led and a strong ninth-place finish to Gibbs back in March. That's a great indicator heading to the Monster Mile this weekend.  

Chase Briscoe – Stewart Haas Racing started the season clearly on the back foot and looking for some speed and better finishes. Briscoe seems to have risen above these challenges and he's the best performing SHR driver entering Dover weekend. The driver of the No. 14 Ford is a respectable 12th in the driver standings with four Top-10 finishes in the first 10 events. Briscoe has been steady on the short tracks this season with a pair of Top 10's and three Top-15 finishes to this point. His prior three starts at the Monster Mile have not been of note to this point with just a single Top-15 finish. However, we believe the No. 14 Ford team is one that's ready to pop this weekend. We think Briscoe will race to a career-best Dover finish. 

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Busch has been an incredible career-long performer at Dover, but his short track efforts this season have been puzzling. The three-time Monster Mile winner sports a strong 60-percent Top-10 rate on the high banks but his 21st-place finish here one year ago (his first with RCR) was very confusing after winning the pole position. Busch's short track struggles this season are very concerning. Tracks that he normally dominates have been unsolvable riddles for the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet. Finishes of 22nd-, 25th-, 20th- and 16th-place (20.8 average finish) have been Busch's body of work thus far in 2024 on ovals one-mile in size or less. Keep Busch benched on these small ovals for the time being.

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing veteran was fantastic at Dover Motor Speedway in his last two starts. Chastain fetched finishes of third- and second-place the last two seasons with a bevy of laps led (184 to be exact). However, we have a hard time overlooking how the No. 1 Chevrolet squad has performed this season on the circuit's short tracks. Chastain has finishes of sixth-, 15th-, 15th- and 14th-place on the small ovals in 2024. While that's not exactly terrible, it's not exactly great either. The normal fantasy value that this driver and team bring to the table at tracks like Dover seems to be impacted this season. Let other fantasy racing players gamble on Chastain's recent past at Dover, and don't take the bait.

Austin Cindric – Cindric's season long troubles continued at Talladega last weekend. Despite qualifying on the outside pole and leading 16 laps he would run into trouble and finish a distant 23rd on a superspeedway. These have been the best ovals of his Cup Series career to this point. Things don't get any easier for Cindric and the No. 2 Ford team this Sunday. The one-mile oval of Dover will likely play out like his prior short track starts this season. With no Top-20 finishes and an average finish of 28.3, there's not much to get excited about. The Penske Racing driver has two prior Cup Series starts at the Monster Mile and those were disappointing 36th- and 26th-place finishes. Cindric is clearly a driver to avoid in fantasy lineups for the Wurth 400.     

Erik Jones – Unfortunately, Jones sustained a back injury at Talladega last weekend during the GEICO 500. It was reported during the week that his follow up medical exam in North Carolina found a compression fracture of one of his vertebra and he will be out an undetermined length of time. The crash was a head-on impact with the outside wall and high speed and very tough impact with high G's. Corey Heim will spell Jones at Dover this week. It will be the young Craftsman Truck Series driver's first start in a NASCAR Cup Series car. Certainly this is a downgrade for the Legacy Motor Club No. 43 Toyota team as the young Heim will be learning on the job this weekend.