The Great American Getaway 400 Preview: The Tricky Triangle

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

With the conclusion of the Chicago Street Course event, we're now entering the hot summer months of racing as the series will pay a visit to Pocono Raceway for the first time in the 2024 season. The three-turn oval located in the mountains of Pennsylvania is unlike any other oval track on the circuit. Pocono has been referred to many times over the years as the oval that races like a road course. The extremely long straight-aways and the three distinctly different corners are the primary reason why we have more of a road course feel. You can't hit the set up on your stock car to optimize all three turns, so the crew chiefs have to make their cars as comfortable for the drivers as possible. This usually means making the car easier to turn in two of the three corners and sacrificing the other.  These factors make this track race not like an oval at all, but more like a road course due to the relatively flat banking and three distinctly different turns. 

Now that we've completed 20 races of the 26 that determines the field for the Chase for the Cup, we're on the downhill run towards NASCAR's playoff. The Tricky Triangle in Pocono makes a good, challenging track to mark the beginning of the stretch run in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season. We're racing for the first and only time this year at Pocono Raceway and that's a break with history. For many years we raced two events at the huge Pennsylvania track. We broke with that history and tradition two seasons ago and now race a lone, 400-mile event at Pocono.

Since we'll be racing just one time at Pocono Raceway we need to take a quick look at the loop stats for this unique facility. Coming off the races at Chicago, Nashville and New Hampshire, we could see some shakeup in our driver group for this event. This track is so unlike any other on the circuit that we'll really need to focus on recent races at Pocono for this weekend's drivers. Current trends at this track should hold pretty true to form for this race, and we'll factor in the current hot streaks as needed as a predictive modifier. As you'll see in the table below we have an easily identifiable group of drivers that love to race on the three-turn, 2.5-mile Pennsylvania track. The loop stats shown below cover the last 19 years or 36 races at Pocono Raceway.

Pocono Raceway had been a NASCAR track up for grabs for years. With Kyle Busch's victory here in 2017, we saw the Toyota camp run away with five-straight victories at the Tricky Triangle. However, the last four seasons have seen the Pocono track tilt back towards more of a parity among manufacturers. Toyota and Chevrolet drivers have swapped victories in the last five events at Pocono Raceway, and that will be an interesting statistic heading into this weekend's Great American Getaway 400. Since Chevrolet has been a bit down compared to Toyota and Ford this season, it will be interesting to see if there's a changing of the manufacturer guard at Pocono or if we will still stay with this trend of parity. With the ball squarely in Ford's court due to recent wins on ovals, this weekend is a timely visit to Pocono Raceway for drivers of this brand. Ford drivers have won the last four intermediate and larger oval events and should be on their game for the Tricky Triangle.

With Denny Hamlin's victory here last season, Toyota will be charged with defending their turf this Sunday afternoon. Hamlin's win was the third Toyota victory in the last five events at Pocono Raceway. Chevrolet is fresh off the win this past weekend (Alex Bowman) at Chicago and will carry the momentum into Pennsylvania this week. The best positioned Chevrolet drivers to challenge the Toyota camp will be William Byron and Kyle Larson. They've been the top two performers for this camp most of the spring and summer and will continue to be top contenders going forward. We'll examine the recent trends as well some historical stats at Pocono and give you the drivers that you need to dominate this weekend's Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin leads the driver rating in the table above thanks to his seven-career Pocono wins. Three of those have come since the 2019 season along with one runner-up finish at Pocono. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is just as sharp at this track as a veteran as he was as a young NASCAR star over 15 years ago. In this event one year ago, Hamlin won his seventh Pocono trophy with a late surge and pass of Kyle Larson. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota will vigorously defend his race crown of a year ago this Sunday. Hamlin loves racing at this unique oval and his incredible 65-percent Top-10 rate and over 800 laps led at this track speaks to his excellence at Pocono Raceway. 

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star is still trying to find his dominant, race-winning form in 2024 and it could get a kick start this weekend at Pocono Raceway. Larson has never won at the Pennsylvania oval, but he has finished runner-up there twice in his career and has five-career Top-5 finishes at the Tricky Triangle (31-percent). The Top-10 rate stands at a strong 56-percent for Larson at Pocono Raceway. Coming off the disappointment of a crash at Chicago this past week, the veteran driver would seem to be motivated for a big rebound this weekend. Larson has been strong on the intermediate ovals this season, now he just needs to step up his game on the larger ovals to propel him into victory lane.   

William Byron – Byron has been a man on a mission this season with three victories already to this point in the season and a robust sixth-place standing in the points. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has also enjoyed some of that success on the bigger ovals with a recent third-place at Charlotte and sixth-place at Darlington. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has had good stats at Pocono Raceway with a 50-percent Top-10 rate in 10 starts, 130 laps led and two pole positions. In this event one year ago he won the pole and led 60 laps before fading to 14th-place by the finish. However, Byron brings pretty high-end ceiling to the table and has shown the capability to nab surprise performances in 2024.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is a one-time Pocono winner, but his consistency at this three-turn, 2.5-mile track has been spotty over the years. Logano's 10 Top-10 finishes in 28-career starts works out to a questionable 36-percent rate. That's a lower percentage than we like to see in star drivers. However, the driver of the No. 22 Ford has been on the surge of late. Logano grabbed a big win at the Nashville oval a couple weeks ago and he was a strong sixth-place at the Iowa oval just before that. This driver and team are turning up their performance as the summer wears on and this is a timely visit to Pocono Raceway. We believe the Penske Racing star will be the driver carrying the flag the highest for Ford at Pocono.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Tyler Reddick – Riding a three-race Top-10 streak and sporting six Top 10's in the last seven events, Reddick is on fire coming to Pennsylvania this week. The 23XI Racing youngster looks poised for another Top-5 run in The Great American Getaway 400. He has been consistent on the intermediate and larger ovals of late with Top-10 finishes in four of his last five starts. Reddick also likes Pocono Raceway has he's finished runner-up in the last two races at the Tricky Triangle. He now has finishes of 11th-, ninth-, second- and second-place in his last four Pocono starts for a razor sharp 6.0 average finish across the span. If the breaks fall his way, Reddick could even contend for his first career win at this track in Sunday's 400-mile battle.       

Chase Elliott – Elliott finally snatched his first-career victory at the Tricky Triangle in this event two seasons ago. It would come by way of disqualification of both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch who finished 1-2, but a victory it was none the less. The Hendrick Motorsports star also sports a strong 64-percent Top-10 rate at Pocono and career 13.8 average finish. He's been a consistent producer and good finisher here right up to his win of two seasons ago. Elliott has been a bit hit-or-miss on the intermediate and larger ovals this season, and that is a bit concerning. However, his personal record at this 2.5-mile tri-oval is simply too good to ignore. Elliott and the No. 9 Chevrolet team will be reliable performers in the Great American Getaway 400.      

Alex Bowman – The big tracks have yielded some success for Bowman and the No. 48 Chevrolet team. He collected Top 10's earlier this spring at Darlington and Charlotte, and Bowman is coming off the big, boosting win at Chicago this past week. Pocono Raceway has been a bit hit-or-miss over his career, but it's been trending in the right direction for this driver and team in recent starts. Bowman's last five Pocono finishes are ninth-, first-, seventh-, 11th- and 24th-place for a strong 10.4 average finish over the recent span. We believe the momentum of his Chicago win will spur the veteran driver to a good performance in this 400-mile battle at the Tricky Triangle.  

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has been dialed-in on the big ovals this season. A win earlier in the year at Darlington was followed by a runner-up at Charlotte and third at Gateway. Keselowski has been good at going in circles on the bigger tracks for sure. As to Pocono Raceway, he's had a long and very successful career racing at this three-turn oval. Keselowski is a one-time Pocono winner, he's led well over 200 laps for his career here. The veteran driver owns 11 Top-5 (42-percent) and 15 Top-10 (58-percent) finishes at Pocono Raceway. The 10.9 average finish across 26-career starts speaks volumes of his production and consistency here. Keselowski has only finished off the lead lap twice here in 14 seasons.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Pocono & solid upside

Martin Truex Jr. – The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has been a bit spotty on the larger ovals this season, so that's why we've moved him down to the sleepers list this week. However,  Truex loves the Pocono triangle with two-career victories and 15 Top-10 finishes (44-percent). With over 250 laps led at this facility, mostly since the 2015 season, Truex is used to racing up front at the Tricky Triangle. Over his last seven starts at Pocono, he's netted a stellar 8.3 average finish. The Joe Gibbs Racing star hasn't been a big performer on the larger ovals this season, however, Pocono is different. The road course "feel" and Truex's expertise here could propel him to an easy Top 10 in Sunday's Great American Getaway 400. 

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing driver has reversed some of his early season struggles in the last few weeks. Blaney has grabbed a win and four Top 10's in the last five races to climb from 12th- to seventh-place in the driver standings in the last few weeks. Blaney is a one-time Pocono Raceway winner and has a steady 43-percent Top-10 rate over 14 starts. He's struggled in his last two outings at Pocono and that may give some fantasy players pause. Still, the 14.3 career average finish at the Tricky Triangle is another good indicator for this weekend. Given the No. 12 Ford team's recent surge in performance, we believe the Penske Racing youngster is a good fantasy racing candidate for Sunday's 400-mile battle at Pocono Raceway.

Ty Gibbs – Coming off a strong outside pole and third-place finish at Chicago this past week, Gibbs looks to stay hot coming to Pocono Raceway this weekend. The young driver of the No. 54 Toyota has been decent on the big ovals this season with three Top 10's and a reasonable 14.3 average finish. Gibbs has just two prior Cup Series starts at the Tricky Triangle and they've been good outings with 16th- and fifth-place finishes the last two seasons. In his Xfinity Series career, he's claimed a pair of impressive runner-up finishes at Pocono in 2021 and 2022. It's clear that Gibbs understands the ins-and-outs of getting around this 2.5-mile raceway. He should be a plus-upside fantasy play for Sunday afternoon.  

Christopher Bell – Bell has been an on-off performer on the big ovals this season. He does have one win (Charlotte) and three Top 10's along with a considerable amount of laps led (307) on the big tracks. However, some inconsistency has led to a 18.9 average finish across all these events, so we're hedging his value as "sleeper list" quality at Pocono Raceway. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has a good enough resume at the Tricky Triangle with three Top 10's (50-percent) and is riding a two-race Top-10 streak at the track into this weekend's action. In this event one year ago, Bell qualified a strong fifth-place on the grid and finished an impressive sixth-place in the HighPoint.com 400.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has just two-career Top-10 finishes in 11-career starts at the Tricky Triangle. However, the great news is that both of those performances have come in his last three starts in Pennsylvania. Wallace finished fifth-place in this event in 2021 and he finished a strong eighth-place in this event in 2022. The 23XI Racing veteran wasn't a major threat to win either of those starts, but the No. 23 Toyota team seemingly figured this place out. Wallace rides a four-race Pocono Top-15 streak into Sunday's action and he's managed a good 9.5 average finish across that four-race span. He hasn't shown us a great deal on the big tracks this season, but recent outings have netted a pair of seventh-place finishes at tracks like Darlington and Nashville.

Chris Buescher – The one-time Pocono winner (2016) is a sneaky good fantasy play at the Tricky Triangle. The Roush Fenway Keselowski veteran has even qualified well in two of his last three Pocono starts (pole and fifth on grid) even though he didn't get the results he deserved in those two starts. Buescher has been consistent and competitive on the large ovals in 2024 with a pair of Top-5 and four Top-15 finishes. He's even led 83 total laps on these big tracks with 54 alone coming most recently at Kansas. We believe Buescher and the No. 17 Ford team have what it takes to crack the Top 15 Sunday at Pocono and even possibly break through to the Top 10.  

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Busch's four victories at Pocono since the 2017 season make him one of the more dominant performers at this track in its recent history. The Richard Childress Racing star nabbed a win and a runner-up finish in the Pocono doubleheader three seasons ago, and he led a dominating 63 laps in this event two years ago. However, Busch's runner-up finish would be erased after post-race technical inspection revealed a critical violation. Unfortunately, the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has been mired in a deep slump. He's slid all the way to 17th-place in the driver standings and is winless for the season. Busch has struggled on the big tracks this season (25-percent Top-10 rate) and he's also been poor in three of his last five Pocono outings. We believe he's a driver to avoid for The Great American Getaway 400.

Ross Chastain – This has been a lean season on the big tracks. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has just two Top 10's on the big ovals (25-percent) and subpar 16.5 average finish. Chastain led some laps but crashed out most recently at Nashville and that has sort of been emblematic of his poor luck on the ovals in 2024. As it pertains to Pocono Raceway, the Trackhouse Racing star hasn't had much luck here over the years. In eight-career starts Chastain has no Top-10 finishes and six finishes outside the Top 25 for a disappointing 27.6 average finish. We believe this driver and team are simply too risky to deploy in fantasy lineups this week.

Austin Dillon – With Richard Childress Racing in total free-fall and damage control mode, we believe both drivers are ones to avoid at Pocono Raceway this weekend. That includes Dillon and the No. 3 Chevrolet team. The veteran driver limps into Pennsylvania with just two Top 10's on the season and none in the last five events. The big ovals have been a real challenge with a subpar 21.5 average finish in 2024. Dillon has never been a big Pocono performer with just one Top 10 in 18-career starts and a so-so 18.9 average finish. His outing at the Tricky Triangle last season resulted in a crash and DNF in the HighPoint.com 400. Leave Dillon on the fantasy bench for the foreseeable future.   

Erik Jones – The veteran driver has great loop stats in the table at the beginning of this article but we would caution against fantasy racing use in this weekend's event. Jones has been on a tough slog this season on the big ovals. The Legacy Motor Club driver has just one Top-15 finish vs. three finishes outside the Top-25 on the bigger ovals this season for a poor 23.7 average finish. Despite having a pair of ninth-place finishes in his last two Pocono Raceway starts and a stellar 67-percent career Top-10 rate at this track, we believe the No. 43 Toyota team is set for some struggles this Sunday. At 28th-place in the current driver points, this has been an uncharacteristically lean season for this driver and team.