Quaker State 400 Preview: Let the Chase Begin

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

With the rim-riding, high-line action of Darlington Raceway now well in our rearview mirror, we head this week to a much different venue for the second time this season. NASCAR pulls into Atlanta Motor Speedway for the second visit of 2024. This event was a new addition to the Cup Series schedule two seasons ago. For much of the last decade, the sanctioning body only scheduled one event per year at Atlanta, but that changed with the addition of the Quaker State 400 to the 36-race schedule. This season's twist is that Atlanta has been moved from the regular season schedule and into the Chase for the Cup playoffs. Atlanta Motor Speedway now plays host to the first race of the NASCAR playoffs.  

The lightning-fast quad oval will host this 400-mile battle Sunday afternoon. Atlanta Motor Speedway is similar to the many intermediate ovals we've already raced in the 2024 campaign, with the twist of the recent track reconfiguration of three years ago. We'll need to pay very close attention to who is currently surging in the Cup Series and also who performed well the last few times we raced in Atlanta. To a lesser degree, the historical statistics of Atlanta will also play a part for identifying those teams that will make the transition back to intermediate oval racing the best. Atlanta Motor Speedway has a good group of drivers that dominate each time we visit central Georgia, and the table below illustrates this group well. 

Atlanta's recent overhaul increased the banking to a whopping 28 degrees and narrowed the racing groove to just 40 feet. The racing is pretty unique now and almost resembles the action we normally see on superspeedways like Daytona or Talladega. We need to take a quick look at the standard stats from the last five Atlanta races to get a good feel for who is having success and who is struggling with the new configuration. Here are the standard stats from the last five Atlanta Motor Speedway events, sorted by average finish.

Given what has happened at Atlanta Motor Speedway in February's Ambetter Health 400, it's almost certain that it will be another multi-driver brawl this weekend. The first five Cup Series events on the newly reconfigured Atlanta oval have offered up lots of lead changes, lots of different leaders and tons of excitement. The amazing statistics we've seen show just how transformed Atlanta Motor Speedway is now after the banking and surface changes. Even though Todd Gilliland dominated most of that event, there were still 14 different leaders and a good bit of shuffling at the front. That radically different racing was all too apparent to the casual observer. No lead was safe and any driver could make a push to the front, much like a superspeedway race. We're sure to see similar action again this Sunday.

Daniel Suarez won the race in February at Atlanta, and although he led 9 laps late it was far from certain on even the white flag lap that he'd be victorious. Suarez would nip Ryan Blaney by just 0.003-seconds at the line to win with a host of other drivers in their "back seats" so to speak at the checkered flag. We had nine caution periods for accidents mostly of the multi-car type, so the racing action was periodically interrupted with a lot of restarts. Due to those multi-car wrecks, we also have to acknowledge the luck and staying out of trouble component that has been introduced to the Atlanta race. We had 8 cars DNF in that February event, so staying out of trouble and keeping the fenders on your car are another factor to consider. We'll give you a run down of the drivers you need this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and a few who could surprise in the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has been one of the top performers on the new Atlanta layout as evidenced by his 73 laps led, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes to power a strong 8.0 average finish across the five-race span. That dovetails nicely with his history in superspeedway racing. Blaney's last four Talladega starts have netted one win and two runner-up finishes. The driver of the No. 12 Ford is a three-time winner at Talladega and understands the momentum swings of drafting and superspeedway racing. Blaney led 31 laps earlier this season at Atlanta Motor Speedway and finished runner-up by the narrowest of margins to Daniel Suarez. Many will consider him the driver to beat this Sunday to start the playoffs.

William Byron – Byron has had a strong season and he enters the weekend fourth in the driver standings. In the inaugural race at Atlanta with the new configuration, he led a race-high 111 laps that afternoon but it would take some work to wrestle the lead from Bubba Wallace after the final restart of the day and hold off many challengers to secure the victory. He would return to Atlanta in this event one year ago and lead 19 laps in route to his second victory on the new configuration of Atlanta Motor Speedway. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet would not be a big performer in the race earlier this season at the mid-Georgia oval, but we can't write off what he's done there in those other starts.

Joey Logano – Logano's superspeedway prowess paid off big in the spring race of 2023 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The Penske Racing star won the pole and led 140 laps in a dominating performance to pick up the victory. His combined 190 laps led through the last five events on the "new" Atlanta lead all drivers. Logano has qualified extremely well in all but one of the last five races at AMS. He sat on the outside pole there this spring and led 27 laps before running into a late-race accident and finishing 28th-place. With the playoffs starting this weekend there will be a renewed sense of urgency in the No. 22 Ford team. We expect Logano to be on his superspeedway racing "A" game in Sunday's Quaker State 400.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez will be looking to break out of a two-race slump this weekend, and Atlanta should be the rallying point for the No. 99 team. The veteran Trackhouse Racing driver has performed exceptionally well since Atlanta was reconfigured into a "mini superspeedway". Suarez won the event there earlier this season in thrilling fashion over Ryan Blaney. Additionally, he finished runner-up in this event one year ago. With one win, three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes since the track was changed, you can't argue with those results. It's a bit peculiar because Suarez and the No. 99 team are not big performers on the regular superspeedways, but Atlanta is very much to this driver and team's liking.    

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has seemingly reversed a season full of struggles in the last three events. Busch rides a three-race Top-5 streak into Atlanta this weekend and has some good momentum despite not being a part of the playoff field. The Richard Childress Racing star has a three-race Atlanta Top-10 streak in tow and that includes his 28 laps led and brilliant third-place finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway in February. Busch is a two-time winner at Atlanta on the old configuration and his 48-percent Top-10 rate at the oval is reasonably successful. He should be a Top-5 threat Sunday in the Quaker State 400.

Ross Chastain – Chastain nearly won the first two events at the Atlanta oval since the track reconfiguration. He led 42 laps in the spring 2022 race and finished runner-up to William Byron. Chastain also led 32 laps and finished runner-up in this event two years ago to Chase Elliott. The Trackhouse Racing veteran was a steady seventh-place finisher in February's Ambetter Health 400. The average finish across all five Atlanta starts is a healthy 11.8. Chastain may not qualify the best here, but he seems to have little trouble navigating the field and racing among the leaders in the final laps at AMS. Pre-reconfiguration, this driver had very little success at Atlanta, but Chastain has benefited from the change since 2022.

Chase Elliott – Elliott won this event two seasons ago in a strong performance, and he's led 125 laps in his four starts at Atlanta since the track change. When NASCAR debuted the new configuration of AMS in the spring of 2022, Elliott piloted the No. 9 Chevrolet to 29 laps led and an impressive sixth-place finish in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The 125 laps led combined at Atlanta since the reconfiguration ranks third among all drivers. Elliott has posted a stellar 8.8 average finish across his starts on the new Atlanta and that shows he battles among the leaders here each visit. The Chase playoffs are now underway and this driver and team will be on their A-game Sunday in this 400-mile playoff battle. 

Austin Cindric – With strong Cup Series performances on superspeedways, it was no surprise to see Cindric embrace and succeed on the new Atlanta Motor Speedway. Cindric has logged two Top-5 and four Top-15 finishes on the track since the banks were raised and the racing groove was narrowed. The 54 laps led and 12.4 average finish speak for themselves for the driver of the No. 2 Penske Racing Ford. Cindric was one of the more impressive drivers at Atlanta in February of this year. He logged 32 laps led and finished a brilliant fourth-place in the Ambetter Health 400. The notes from that outing should come in very handy this weekend.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Atlanta & solid upside

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford Mustang has always been a top performer on superspeedway ovals. Keselowski owns six Talladega wins and one Daytona victory. His success on the new configuration of Atlanta has been up-and-down so we're slotting him in the sleepers list this week. Keselowski has two Top-10 finishes in these last five races on the higher banks and a respectable 14.2 average finish. He did get caught up in a crash in February's Ambetter Health 400, but that was his first DNF at AMS since the reconfiguration. We believe the RFKR driver has the right stuff to crack the Top 10 in this 400-mile Atlanta battle. 

Michael McDowell – As a former Daytona 500 winner, McDowell's abilities on superspeedway ovals is well established. He had some tough outings in his first three starts on the new Atlanta Motor Speedway, but he's come alive in his last two starts on the track. He pushed his No. 34 Ford to an impressive fourth-place finish in this event one year ago. McDowell followed that up with a pole position, 27 laps led and strong eighth-place finish in February's Ambetter Health 400. Those two performances have lowered this veteran driver's average finish over the last five starts at AMS to a respectable 14.4. That pole position and all those laps led was McDowell's last look at Atlanta. You'll know that performance will be fresh on the minds of this race team this weekend. 

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has always been a skilled superspeedway performer. Beuscher won the summer race at Daytona in 2023 and he's collected numerous Top 10's in recent Talladega and Daytona outings. The driver of the No. 17 Ford raced to a ninth-place finish in February's Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. That's one of two Top 10's and three Top 15's he's collected at AMS since the reconfiguration prior to the 2022 season. While he has crashed out of two of those Atlanta starts during this time, he does have the laps led, good qualifying and general speed to look past those mishaps. Buescher and this race team bring a lot of potential to Sunday's Quaker State 400.   

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Despite DNF's in his first two starts on the new Atlanta configuration, Stenhouse has rebounded nicely in his last three starts at the revamped oval. The JTG Daugherty Racing driver has finishes of 17th-, 10th- and sixth-place in his last three attempts. The sixth-place came in February's Ambetter Health 400 and was Stenhouse's last look at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The veteran driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet has three-combined victories between Daytona and Talladega so he's always had a knack for pack racing in the draft. It has really translated well to the new Atlanta. We expect Stenhouse to challenge the Top 10 in this first race of the Chase.  

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs is a young driver and fresh face among the Cup Series field, so he's only known the new configuration of Atlanta instead of the old banking and racing grooves. He's liked what he's seen so far with two Top-10 finishes in three starts at AMS. The one poor finish for Gibbs was due to being caught up in a wreck and being forced to complete the race in a damaged car. Aside from that mishap, Gibbs has shown the ability to race from the back of the field to the front here with little difficulty. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota hasn't been a big performer to this point in his career on the Daytona and Talladega ovals, but he really seems to like Atlanta. Gibbs is good weekly lineup or salary cap play at Atlanta Motor Speedway.      

Corey Lajoie – Nearly all of Lajoie's 10-career Top-10 finishes have come on superspeedway ovals. In fact, nine of them have occurred at Atlanta, Daytona or Talladega. This style of racing really seems to play well to this driver and team as Lajoie is often seen battling among the leaders late in these style races. He has two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his five starts on the newly configured Atlanta Motor Speedway. He didn't qualify well in February's Ambetter Health 400, but that didn't stop Lajoie from racing to a respectable 13th-place finish. The No. 7 Spire Motorsports team has the speed on these type ovals and Lajoie knows how to navigate the chaos. It makes him a good consideration the lower driver tiers.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Tyler Reddick – The 23XI Racing youngster won the regular season crown last week at Darlington, and he's been a very hot driver in recent weeks. However, as Reddick's crash at Daytona a couple weeks ago illustrates, the superspeedway races are likely a downgrade for this excellent driver and team. He has just one Top-10 in five starts since the Atlanta reconfiguration and an inflated 23.8 average finish across the span. Reddick hasn't led many laps here either in that time with just 18. In February's Ambetter Health 400, the driver of the No. 45 Toyota qualified 19th and finished a distant 30th after getting entangled in one of the many accidents. This is a week to fade Reddick.

Kyle Larson – Simply put, this style of racing just isn't Larson's cup of tea. He's led 32 laps in his five prior Atlanta starts since the reconfiguration and he's crashed out of two of those events. He did manage to snatch a sixth-place finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway in the spring of 2023. However, it's been tough going outside of that lone performance. The 19.4 average finish across the span is a big caution flag to any fantasy racing expectations for Larson and the No. 5 team this weekend. In February's Ambetter Health 400, Larson led 15 laps but would run into trouble and fall off the lead lap finishing a distant 23rd-place. He's simply too risky to roll at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Austin Dillon – We typically think of Dillon when it comes to superspeedway racing, but he just hasn't had the luck in 2024. One finish outside the Top 20 and two finishes outside the Top 30 have been his body of work at Daytona and Talladega. That mirrors Dillon's performance on the new Atlanta Motor Speedway as well. He crashed and finished 35th-place in his first two starts at AMS. Dillon has reeled off finishes of 20th-, 21st- and 22nd-place in the three Atlanta events since those two DNF's. The average finish across the span now stands at 26.6. We believe the driver of the RCR No. 3 Chevrolet is a high-risk fantasy racing prospect for Sunday's Quaker State 400.          

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has always been a top performer on superspeedway ovals. Hamlin's three Daytona 500 victories and two Talladega wins are a real testament to his abilities. However, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota has never seemed to catch on to the secret to the new Atlanta. Since the reconfiguration, Hamlin has just one Top 10 in five starts vs. three finishes outside the Top 20. All that despite leading 32 combined laps. In February's Ambetter Health 400, this driver and team qualified 13th on the grid, led 15 laps, but fell off the lead lap and finished a distant 23rd-place. Hamlin and his Joe Gibbs Racing team would like to get off to a good start in the Chase playoffs, but this is a high-risk oval for the veteran driver.