This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.
The Kentucky tri-oval has a very similar configuration to Kansas Speedway in terms of banking and size. The teams that just dominated at Kansas a few weeks ago are sure to be looking forward to this weekend's trip to Sparta. While Kansas offers 15 degree corner banking compared to 14 degree corner banking at Kentucky, the similarities are enough to warrant reconsideration of the same driver group that we had in the recently completed SpongeBob Square Pants 400. Both ovals are the tri-oval, "D-shaped" variety so the handling characteristics will be much the same. Probably the only major difference we'll see this weekend at Kentucky Speedway is that our lineup of streaking
The Kentucky tri-oval has a very similar configuration to Kansas Speedway in terms of banking and size. The teams that just dominated at Kansas a few weeks ago are sure to be looking forward to this weekend's trip to Sparta. While Kansas offers 15 degree corner banking compared to 14 degree corner banking at Kentucky, the similarities are enough to warrant reconsideration of the same driver group that we had in the recently completed SpongeBob Square Pants 400. Both ovals are the tri-oval, "D-shaped" variety so the handling characteristics will be much the same. Probably the only major difference we'll see this weekend at Kentucky Speedway is that our lineup of streaking drivers is a bit different than when we visited Kansas. The last several weeks have seen some shifts in who is hot and who is not as the series pulls into the Kentucky oval. We'll take that information into consideration as we take a look at the historical numbers for this speedway.
This will be just our fifth Sprint Cup Series visit to Kentucky Speedway. To say that we're short on historical data would be a big understatement. Still, we do have the four prior races to pull some numbers from. Granted the statistical sample is quite small, the data will still be a helpful tool in evaluating the drivers. We'll also take a brief look back on the recently completed race at Kansas Speedway. These two ovals are quite similar, and the SpongeBob Square Pants 400 is so fresh statistically that these numbers are likely a good indicator of potential performance this weekend. As you'll see in the table below, the electronic scoring from last four Kentucky races has some easily recognizable stars. Here are the loop stats for the last four races at Kentucky Speedway.
| DRIVER | AVG FINISH | QUALITY PASSES | FASTEST LAPS | LAPS LED | LAPS IN TOP 15 | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 4.5 | 99 | 139 | 274 | 1,003 | 124.3 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 7.0 | 142 | 127 | 203 | 963 | 116.6 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10.5 | 88 | 171 | 346 | 840 | 116.1 |
| Matt Kenseth | 4.5 | 181 | 79 | 38 | 972 | 107.2 |
| Kasey Kahne | 8.5 | 145 | 64 | 1 | 709 | 98.9 |
| Jeff Gordon | 7.3 | 140 | 41 | 0 | 736 | 95.4 |
| Kevin Harvick | 11.0 | 133 | 17 | 0 | 884 | 95.2 |
| Joey Logano | 12.3 | 101 | 25 | 37 | 669 | 94.7 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 12.8 | 106 | 32 | 10 | 633 | 90.7 |
| Ryan Newman | 13.8 | 113 | 14 | 0 | 776 | 90.2 |
| Kurt Busch | 11.5 | 112 | 21 | 41 | 603 | 89.4 |
| Carl Edwards | 15.8 | 107 | 20 | 35 | 662 | 87.2 |
| Denny Hamlin | 22.8 | 87 | 34 | 63 | 558 | 85.2 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 13.0 | 102 | 6 | 1 | 563 | 84.0 |
| Clint Bowyer | 19.3 | 60 | 12 | 0 | 645 | 83.3 |
| Jamie McMurray | 22.5 | 68 | 13 | 0 | 326 | 76.5 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 20.3 | 79 | 12 | 0 | 532 | 75.0 |
| Paul Menard | 20.3 | 68 | 9 | 0 | 543 | 74.5 |
| Austin Dillon | 20.0 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 73.9 |
| Tony Stewart | 18.8 | 86 | 22 | 1 | 367 | 72.8 |
In last season's Kentucky race we saw our first repeat winner at the oval in just the fourth season of this event's existence. Brad Keselowski led 199 of the 267 laps and dominated the evening at the Sparta oval. The Penske Racing star would hold Kyle Busch at bay and claim his second-career victory at Kentucky Speedway. While we saw the No. 2 Ford up front most of the night, he wasn't the only contender to get some attention in the Quaker State 400. There were many suitors for victory lane that hot summer night in Sparta. Kyle Busch was joined by Joey Logano, Ryan Newman and Matt Kenseth as major players at the front of the pack. With the Keselowski win, Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing has split the first four wins at this 1.5-mile oval and has effectively locked Chevrolet out of victory lane here to this point. JGR has always had some edge on the competition at this track no matter what division of NASCAR is racing. Between Sprint Cup and Xfinity Series racing at Kentucky Speedway, Gibbs drivers have five combined wins. This date in the schedule looks like a wonderful opportunity for drivers like Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards to break through and get those valuable wins that will qualify them for the upcoming Chase.
The recently completed race at Kansas Speedway in early May is likely a good preview of what to expect at this similar oval. The drivers that led laps, turned fast laps and raced up front at Kansas are the ones likely to put on a repeat performance at the Kentucky oval. Several different drivers swapped the lead that evening at Kansas, but it was Jimmie Johnson, with Kevin Harvick in hot pursuit, that went to victory lane that night. We expect to see these two drivers in the mix and up front this Saturday evening. As far as the history of the Kentucky Speedway is concerned, Kyle Busch is our loop stat leader coming into this weekend's race. With the driver of the No. 18 Toyota having won before at Kansas and having won as recently as two races ago at Sonoma, we have to give him a lot of cred coming into this 400-mile race. Among the lower tier contenders, we need to keep both Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch in mind. Truex is mired in a mini-slump right now, but he's been awesome on these intermediate ovals in 2015. Busch has been equally good on the mid-size ovals and he's racing extremely well entering this weekend. We'll highlight the fantasy racing drivers you need to dominate the evening at Kentucky Speedway.
The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win
Kevin Harvick – In this season's intermediate oval races, no one has been hotter than Harvick in the Sprint Cup Series. He's earned the most points of any driver with 214. The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has one victory, 433 laps led and three runner-up finishes in those events. The No. 4 Chevrolet team should stay on a roll in the Quaker State 400. Harvick posted a seventh-place finish in this event one year ago, which was his career-best at the Kentucky oval. He has done nothing to distinguish himself at Kentucky Speedway in the first four races at this track, but we have a strong feeling that's about to change.
Jimmie Johnson – The six-time Sprint Cup Series champion has only four-career Sprint Cup starts at the intermediate oval in Kentucky. The sample size is small, but the stats count the same. Johnson owns one pole position, 203 laps led and four Top-10 finishes in those efforts. It doesn't get any more spotless than that. We've seen Johnson dominate the cookie cutter oval circuit this season with victories at Atlanta, Fort Worth and Kansas. The No. 48 team is on a roll on the intermediate ovals right now. He will for sure be racing with the leaders at Kentucky Speedway and if the breaks fall his way he could be celebrating in victory lane at the end of the night.
Martin Truex Jr. – The Furniture Row Racing star has fallen into a bit of a rut of late with bad luck finishes at Sonoma and Daytona, but he'll be very glad to get back to intermediate ovals this week. Truex has been one of the top performers on these style tracks in 2015. The driver of the No. 78 Chevrolet is five-for-five in Top 10s at these ovals this season and he's been incredibly close to winning in his last two starts at Kansas and Charlotte. In those two races alone Truex combined to lead well over 200 laps and flirt with victory lane. We see the Denver, Colorado-based team bringing that excellence to the Sparta oval this Saturday night. Truex should be racing with the leaders in the Quaker State 400.
Kurt Busch – Busch has a great career record at the Kentucky oval and he comes into this event riding a four-race Top-5 streak that includes a victory at Michigan and runner-up finish at Sonoma. Busch has displayed his usual expertise on the intermediate ovals this season. He has one pole position, 183 laps led and two Top 10s in his three starts on these style tracks to this point. Busch's performance at Kansas Speedway, which is a very similar oval to Kentucky Speedway, yielded 20 laps led and an eighth-place finish. The SHR veteran has been looking very fast in recent weeks, and he's a contender to win each week no matter the style of track.
Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the Top 10 with an outside shot at winning
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt Jr. has a string of five-straight Top-5 finishes on these style tracks this season. Coming off the big victory at Daytona has to surely have the driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet walking tall coming to Sparta, Kentucky. Earnhardt collected a strong third-place finish at the similar oval in Kansas a few weeks ago, so these lower-banked 1.5-mile tracks are in the Hendrick star's wheelhouse right now. He earned a pole position and Top-5 finish in his last two trips to Kentucky Speedway. We're willing to bet he keeps his Top-5 theme going strong after the Quaker State 400.
Joey Logano – The No. 22 Penske Racing team snapped a three-race Top-5 streak with the disappointing Daytona finish, but Logano's intermediate oval performance this season is too good to ignore. Logano has earned the fifth-most points of any driver in the series on these 1.5-mile tracks in 2015. The young driver has a whopping 196 laps led and four Top-10 finishes on the intermediate oval circuit. Kentucky Speedway brings renewed confidence to this driver and team. Logano led 37 laps and earned a solid ninth-place finish in this event one year ago. He should be wired tight for this 267-lap battle.
Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing driver is looking for anything to get him on a roll, and a visit to Kentucky Speedway may be just what the doctor ordered for this race team. Keselowski has been pretty steady on the intermediate ovals this season with five-straight Top-10 finishes. He's one of only four drivers hitting 100-percent on these cookie cutter ovals this season. The driver of the No. 2 Ford won this event three years ago, and he's the defending event champion of this event last season. He combined to lead 346 laps in his four Kentucky Speedway races. That's a very good sign for the No. 2 Ford team coming to Sparta, Kentucky this Saturday night.
Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star checks in on the solid plays list this week. The winner of the inaugural Kentucky race, Busch should have an edge on most of the field this Saturday night. This will be just his second start this season on a 1.5-mile oval since returning from early-season injury. Busch is dealing with some consistency issues right now, but he should rebound from his subpar Daytona finish. Kentucky is simply one of his favorite places to race. Busch is one of four drivers to visit the Top-10 in all four Kentucky races to-date. Busch has led a whopping 274 of the 1,068 laps raced at Kentucky Speedway. This is not by accident.
Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Kentucky who can provide a solid finish
Matt Kenseth – With struggles at Sonoma and Daytona the last two races, Kenseth and the No. 20 team have to be viewed as a desperate and hungry bunch coming to the Sparta oval. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has Top-10 finishes in four of the five intermediate oval races this season and he's led a total of 38 laps across those events. While he may not roll into victory lane this Saturday night, he and the team have been steady and consistent enough to pencil in for Top 10s at these facilities. Kenseth won this event two years ago and has four Top-10 finishes in the four Kentucky Speedway races to-date.
Jeff Gordon – Gordon is still looking for his first win of the season as the series pulls into Kentucky Speedway this weekend. Saturday night's race at Kentucky offers the No. 24 team another shot at winning a race coming off the strong Top-10 finish at Daytona. He owns Top-10 finishes in each of his four races at Kentucky Speedway, but no victories. That could possibly change after this weekend. Gordon has been a top performer on these 1.5-mile ovals in 2015. He owns a pole and two Top-10 finishes in the last four intermediate oval races. The signs point to another Top 10 run in the Quaker State 400.
Ryan Newman – The RCR veteran's two-race Top-10 streak entering this week has shook off the malaise of an early-summer soft patch for the No. 31 Chevrolet team. The return to intermediate ovals should only bolster and extend Newman's current Top-10 streak. He boasts four Top 10s in the five 1.5-mile track races to-date. His Kentucky stats show a pair of Top-5 finishes in four starts with a career-best third-place finish in this event one year ago. Newman's not running downhill towards the Chase yet, but he's gathering momentum and still looking for his first win of the season coming to Kentucky Speedway.
Kasey Kahne – While recent performance issues make us think twice about recommending the Hendrick Motorsports star, the Kentucky resume makes us rethink our position on the No. 5 team. Kahne sports a pair of Top 10s and four Top 15s in his four-career starts at Kentucky Speedway. Given his consistency issues the last three seasons, the numbers clearly show that this veteran driver finds his "A" game each time he visits the oval in Sparta, Kentucky. While Kahne has not been a world-beater on the cookie cutter ovals this season, he does generally finish in the Top 15 and does stay on the lead lap.
Jamie McMurray – The 14-season Sprint Cup veteran is working on his best season in quite some time. After a three-race Top-10 streak and a pair of Top-15 finishes in the last five events, McMurray comes to the Sparta oval with a lot of momentum. He should keep it going in this 400-mile race. McMurray's intermediate oval resume in 2015 holds one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes to his credit. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet had a brilliant runner-up finish in this Kentucky event two years ago, so the ceiling for performance is pretty high at this facility. McMurray makes a steady, safe play in Saturday night's 400-mile event.
A.J. Allmendinger – The most noteworthy performances of the season so far has been the No. 47 team's early Top 10s at Atlanta and Las Vegas. While Allmendinger has cooled since those outings, his steady 11th-place finish in the Sprint All-Star Race at Charlotte in May was a good sign of life for the team on these ovals. His Top-15 finish at Kansas was also a noteworthy performance as that track's configuration is very similar to the oval in Sparta. The JTG Daugherty Racing driver's one-career Top-10 finish at Kentucky Speedway and average finis around 20 are endorsements of his "deep league" use in this Quaker State 400.
Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The third-year driver for Roush Fenway Racing hasn't found the going easy on these 1.5-mile tracks this season. With finishes of 36th-, 29th-, 15th-, 24th- and 37th-place at Atlanta, Las Vegas, Fort Worth, Kansas and Charlotte the No. 17 team is just simply looking for the ingredients to finish these races on the lead lap. Stenhouse has only two-career Cup starts at Kentucky Speedway, so the experience doesn't run very deep with this young driver. Given his struggles on the intermediate ovals this year, and his lack of experience at Kentucky, we have to recommend passing on Stenhouse for this 400-mile event.
Carl Edwards – Despite winning at Charlotte in May, the No. 19 Toyota team has to be seen has a high-risk fantasy racing play at Kentucky. Edwards has struggled tremendously of late with poor finishes at Sonoma and Daytona and he limps into this installment of the Quaker State 400. With only one-career Top 10 in four starts at Kentucky Speedway the stats speak to his weakness at this particular facility. Edwards has a mixed record on these style ovals in 2015 with a pair of Top 10s in five starts. The trend isn't good and the historical numbers are questionable at best.
Austin Dillon – The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet is fresh off a Top-10 finish and scrape with disaster at Daytona this past weekend. Hopefully, he's no worse for wear despite the bumps and bruises that the high-flying impact with the catch fence delivered at the finish in the early-morning hours at Daytona. As we return to the cookie cutter ovals we have to look at Dillon's body of work on these style tracks in 2015. The results are not good. Dillon has only one finish inside the Top 20 and an average finish of 23.4 across his five starts on these ovals. His 20.0 average finish in two starts at Kentucky Speedway are a good barometer of what to expect and falls short of any fantasy racing consideration.
Tony Stewart – Smoke comes to Kentucky Speedway at a crossroads. He enters the Quaker State 400 25th in the championship standings and hoping to improve his chances of making the Chase for the Cup in September. However, the going has been tough as his sub-par 14th-place finish at Daytona last weekend showed. Stewart needs to up his level of performance this weekend, but his intermediate oval efforts have been sadly lacking in 2015. The Kentucky Speedway resume for this driver is no better. With no Top-10 finishes and an 18.8 average finish at the 1.5-mile oval in Sparta, we're having a difficult time expecting anything big from this driver this weekend.
