This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Tennessee Lottery 250
Location: Lebanon, Tenn.
Course: Nashville Superspeedway
Format: 1.33-mile D-shaped oval
Laps: 188
NASCAR Xfinity Series Tennessee Lottery 250 Race Preview
The Xfinity Series will head to the Nashville Superspeedway for the Tennessee Lottery 250 on Saturday with engines set to fire at 5:00 pm ET. The series is coming off of a compelling race at Loudon that saw Sheldon Creed and Cole Custer battle for the lead in the final laps of the race, only to open the door for Christopher Bell to complete the first leg of his sweep at New Hampshire. The positive news for playoff contenders is that the result meant that there were no new race winners to clinch an additional playoff spot. Ryan Sieg is arguably the biggest threat to the current playoff picture, and he's come on strong with two of his four top-ten finishes this season in his last five races.
Another factor to consider is that we have several Cup drivers taking part in the Xfinity series this week, including Noah Gragson, Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, and John Hunter Nemechek.
Key Stats at Nashville Superspeedway
- Number of races: 24
- Winners from pole: 3
- Winners from top-five starters: 13
- Winners from top-10 starters: 19
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 2
Recent Nashville Winners w/ Starting Position
2023- AJ Allmendinger (11th)
2022- Justin Allgaier (5th)
2021 -Kyle Busch (1st)
Nashville Superspeedway is a unique, concrete D-shaped tri-oval that is 1.33 miles in length. Track history is also somewhat sparse in recent years, though no repaving is reported to have occurred during the track's hiatus from hosting NASCAR series racing. What we have seen is that it's imperative to qualify inside the top 10 in order to have a strong chance at a win. Given that DK doesn't lock contests until after qualifying, the results of the early afternoon on Saturday will heavily influence any final build.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Tennessee Lottery 250
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Justin Allgaier - $11,000
Cole Custer - $10,700
Ross Chastain - $9,300
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Sheldon Creed - $9,000
Carson Kvapil - $8,800
Sammy Smith - $8,200
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
AJ Allmendinger- $7,500
Parker Kligerman - $7,100
Ryan Sieg - $7,000
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Shane van Gisbergen - $6,500
Brennan Poole - $5,500
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Tennessee Lottery 250
Cole Custer - $10,700
Ross Chastain - $9,300
Carson Kvapil - $8,800
AJ Allmendinger - $7,500
Parker Kligerman - $7,100
Shane van Gisbergen - $6,500
There's no way to jam in all three Tier 1 drivers, but Chastain should be a lock to pair with either Custer or Allgaier. Chastain has had tremendous success at the track in the Cup Series, picking up a 117.9 driver rating while finishing no worse than fifth in the last three years. Barring a disaster in qualifying, he's a great driver to build around.
Allgeier also has a win to his name in Nashville since NASCAR returned, and he also finished second in 2021. Finally, Custer is also a solid pick due to his solid qualifying form. He's started inside the top 10 in all but four of 16 races this season. Track position matters, so that bodes well for his outlook this weekend.
Moving down to Tier 2, Creed is knocking on the door of his first Xfinity win. He's finished inside the top five in each of the last three races. That type of finish would be a solid return at his price. While Kvapil is only a part-time driver, there's no denying his talent. He has three top-five finishes in Xfinity in four opportunities. Dale Earnhart Jr. went out of his way to praise Kvapil earlier in the week, which is never a bad endorsement to have.
Tier 3 is a great place to start picking off value. Allmendinger has been somewhat underwhelming overall this season, but he's qualified around 10th in most races which should lead to a solid weekend in Nashville. Kligerman is another driver who is noteworthy due to his recent form. He's solidified his position in the playoffs with a solid four-race stretch, during which he's started no worse than 14th and finished no worse than 11th. He's not a likely pick to boom and win a GPP, but he's reliably topped 30 DK points in the last month. Sammy Smith is the opposite. He doesn't have a win, but he's far more of a boom-bust pick. He's topped 50 points three times this season and has scored negative points on four occasions.
For those who want to roster two Tier 1 drivers, it will be imperative to dip into Tier 4. Van Gisbergen is a risk because it's his first time racing at Nashville, but he's done fine adjusting to ovals overall this season.
