NASCAR Draft Kit: 2020 Sleepers & Busts

Of the articles that make up the NASCAR draft kit, this is probably the most important. Surprise drivers in both the positive and negative sense can make or break fantasy racing seasons. We all know what Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. can do, so there's little risk associated with those drivers, but it is the drivers who come out of nowhere to have huge seasons can take you to fantasy racing glory.  Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Ryan Blaney likely helped many to win their leagues last season.  While drivers like Jimmie Johnson, Austin Dillon and Daniel Suarez most likely ended your fantasy racing championship hopes by midseason. Identifying those drivers who will break-out and have career seasons, and those who are headed in the other direction for whatever reason is the key in fantasy racing success. Let's look at some of the drivers in 2020 you should make every effort to get, and those you should avoid at all costs.

SLEEPERS

Cole Custer
Car: No. 41
Team: Stewart Haas Racing
Manufacturer: Ford

The 2020 season promises to be the biggest season in years in terms of high-profile rookies.  Custer's star may be the brightest of the bunch.  Certainly, he will be inheriting the best team situation of the rookie class.  He will take over the No. 41 Ford of Stewart Haas Racing that has hosted both Kurt Busch and Daniel Suarez in recent seasons. Custer has finished runner-up in the Xfinity Series championship the last two seasons, and has collected a combined eight victories in those campaigns.  He became the youngest winner in NASCAR national touring series history when he captured the win at Loudon at the age of 16 during the 2014 truck series season.  It's been a rocket ship ride to the top ever since for Custer.  The sky is the limit in terms of performance, and Custer should outdo the numbers Suarez accumulated in this same car last season.  He should have the inside track on Rookie of the Year this season.

Tyler Reddick
Car: No. 8
Team: Richard Childress Racing
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

The defending two-time Xfinity Series champion makes the move to the Cup Series in 2020.  Reddick will take over the No. 8 Chevrolet of Richard Childress Racing.  The young driver has been fantastic in his brief three-season Xfinity career with nine total victories, seven pole positions, 53 Top-10 finishes and the back-to-back championships.  Reddick has won at every level he's raced so the move to NASCAR's top division will be eagerly anticipated.  He made two starts in a Cup car last season and snagged an impressive ninth-place finish at Kansas Speedway in those efforts.  Reddick will be paired with his Xfinity crew chief, Randall Burdett, in the No. 8 team.  That established chemistry and communication is hoped to ease his transition to NASCAR's top division.  Certainly, Reddick will do everything possible to give Cole Custer a run for his money in the Rookie of the Year chase. 

Christopher Bell
Car: No. 95
Team: Leavine Family Racing
Manufacturer: Toyota

Based on just the numbers, Bell may be the most talented of the rookie crop this season.  His Xfinity Series stats are crazy good.  The last three seasons have seen Bell collect 16 total victories, 12 pole positions and 46 Top-10 finishes.  He's pulled up short in terms of winning championships, but that's mainly a function of battling Cole Custer and Tyler Reddick the last three campaigns.  The 25-year-old driver from Oklahoma will take over the No. 95 Toyota that Matt DiBenedetto raced really well in 2019.  DiBenedetto grabbed seven Top 10s and finished 22nd in the points in this same race car, and Bell could take it a bit higher this season.  The team's affiliation with Joe Gibbs Racing, and crew chief Jason Ratcliff are certainly net positives.  Bell's pure talent will help this small race team compete with the bigger teams in the Cup Series.  As far as the ROTY competition goes, Bell will do the most with the least and give the other two high-profile rookies a run for their money in 2020.

William Byron
Car: No. 24
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

The 22-year-old driver took some significant steps in 2019.  Byron nabbed his first five pole positions and first five Top-5 finishes.  He also made his first Chase for the Cup field and drove deep into the Chase being cut going into the Round of 8.  We believe the positive steps forward will continue in 2020.  Much like his young teammate at Hendrick Motorsports, Chase Elliott, Byron will take some time to mature and learn how to win races.  The pairing with ace crew chief, Chad Knaus, paid dividends last season and will continue into the new season.  While we don't believe Byron will be ready to win in this campaign we should still see some modest improvement in qualifying, average finishes and increases in Top-5 and Top-10 totals.  Fantasy racing players need to be all-in on this driver while he's still easy and cheap to acquire in fantasy drafts.  Byron's upside is high, and his potential to surprise and outperform make him a driver to target in virtually any fantasy racing format.

Matt DiBenedetto
Car: No. 21
Team: Wood Brothers Racing
Manufacturer: Ford

It's ironic that the same weekend DiBenedetto received the news he would no longer be racing for Leavine Family Racing in 2020 he had his near-brush with victory lane at Bristol in August.  He was only foiled by a faster Denny Hamlin in those closing laps, but still finished second in the high-profile Bristol night race.  It was a tremendous 2019 season for DiBenedetto.  He'll look to land softly at Wood Brothers Racing this season, and fill the seat of the No. 21 Ford after Paul Menard's retirement.  This journeyman driver has talent and that's unquestionable after what he did last season.  We believe he'll be able to hang onto that level of performance with his capable new race team.  DiBenedetto should register similar statistical totals and push the Top 20 in driver points by season's end.  It's a great team situation for this talented yet under-ranked driver.

Aric Almirola
Car: No. 10
Team: Stewart Haas Racing
Manufacturer: Ford

As expected, Almirola suffered a bit of a downturn last season.  His 2018 campaign was spectacularly good, and set very high bars for his NASCAR career.  So it wasn't really surprising he couldn't carbon copy 2018 into 2019.  A dry spell heading down the stretch run of last season is really the culprit for his downturn.  Stewart Haas Racing saw this and has acted accordingly heading into 2020.  A crew chief shakeup at SHR has brought Almirola a new partner for this season.  Mike Bugarewicz comes over from Clint Bowyer's team, and John Klausmeier heads over to take his place with Bowyer.  The new blood and new chemistry should do Almirola some good.  Bugarewicz led Bowyer to a two-win, 16 Top-10 finish season in 2018 and 18 Top-10 finish campaign last season.  Both were good for Top-12 finishes in the series points.  While Almirola should rebound this season, it might be a bit overly optimistic to expect a full return to 2018 numbers for this driver and team.  Almirola should improve his average finishing position and nab more Top 10s along the way.

BUSTS

Daniel Suarez
Car: TBD
Team: TBD
Manufacturer: TBD

After a three-season run at NASCAR's top level, Suarez found himself without a ride at the end of 2019.  The Mexican racer spent two seasons racing at Joe Gibbs Racing, and last season racing for Stewart Haas.  The results are easy to follow in the chart above.  Wins were tantalizingly close in a couple instances, but inconsistency was really the story of Suarez racing for these two different teams.  The promotion of Cole Custer at SHR was inevitable, and it would move Suarez into the free agent driver ranks.  As of this writing in late December the young Mexican is still without a ride.  Rumors have been heavily leaning towards Suarez going to Richard Childress Racing's Xfinity Series program.  At this point it looks like NASCAR's top division could be a closed door for Suarez.  The available seats aren't very enticing for a driver of his talents, and yet his inability to take the "next steps" in his racing development are a hindrance to any teams at the Cup level courting Suarez. 

Jimmie Johnson
Car: No. 48
Team: Hendrick Motorsports
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

Johnson announced his retirement after the 2020 season in November.  Maybe the writing on the wall was finally clear to the seven-time champion.  After his 2016 championship run, it sounded like the Hendrick Motorsports star would race far longer than this.  However, the last two seasons have been a terrible struggle.  Johnson has gone winless in the last two campaigns, and he missed the Chase for the Cup playoffs for the first time in his career last season.  Now that he no longer races with long-time crew chief, Chad Knaus, the fun in racing seems to have left the No. 48 Chevrolet team.  Johnson will do everything in his power to win again in his farewell season, but it's clear that skill erosion has taken its toll on the 44-year-old driver.  This season will be remembered more for Johnson's last starts at NASCAR's storied tracks and collecting mementos along the way than for any last surge in his farewell performance.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Car: No. 47
Team: JTG Daugherty Racing
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

Now three seasons removed from his career-best campaign (2017), Stenhouse looks to make a new start with a new race team.  The 32-year-old veteran driver has been on a steady downward trajectory since his two-win 2017 season.  The drop in performance ultimately cost Stenhouse his job at Roush Fenway Racing. The No. 17 team cut ties with him at the conclusion of the 2019 season, and he quickly picked up a ride at JTG Daugherty Racing.  From a team standpoint, this is very much a sideways move for the seven-season veteran.  The fresh start could be a good thing for Stenhouse.  However, we still have to take a realistic look at the new situation.  The ceiling and potential to outperform expectations are limited.  Based on how Chris Buescher and A.J. Allmendinger (drivers of similar experience) have performed the last three seasons with this race team, the numbers seem pretty clear.  We expect about 4-5 Top-10 finishes and a points finish of 20th-25th-place.  It could be a disappointing 2020 season for Stenhouse.

Martin Truex Jr.
Car: No. 19
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
Manufacturer: Toyota

First let's make it clear that this is more of a downturn signal than a pure "bust".  We don't expect the 2017 Cup Series champion to completely go in the tank in 2020.  However, Truex has made one thing clear and that was he was the most dominant driver in NASCAR's top division over the last three seasons.  The wins and championship/championship runs underscore that fact.  The December 2019 news that crew chief Cole Pearn would not be returning this season was a tremendous setback for this driver and team.  Pearn and Truex had together built this superstar team since their pairing at Furniture Row Racing in 2015.  24 victories and one championship later it's all over for this dynamic duo.  Truex will have to move on with a new crew chief calling the shots in 2020.  To think this won't somehow hamper what has been nearly perfect performance the last three seasons would be foolhardy.  At the end of the day, this is still a Joe Gibbs Racing team, still the wonderfully talented Truex, but the team chemistry is going to take a hit.  We expect the season numbers to turn south to some degree.

Darrell Wallace Jr.
Car: No. 43
Team: Richard Petty Motorsports
Manufacturer: Chevrolet

Last season was painful to watch at times.  Between run-ins on the race track, and run-ins in the garage area, Wallace had a tumultuous 2019 season.  Outside of his thrilling Top-5 finish at the Brickyard, there wasn't much to cheer about last year.  The pressure for this young driver to perform was even made public through some interviews and articles in the media last season.  It's clear that Wallace is feeling the heat.  After two full seasons of racing at NASCAR's top level there hasn't been much improvement for this driver and team.  In fact, Wallace seems to be stalled out right now in terms of average finish position and his season-long ceiling seems quite low to even the casual observer.  2020 is a contract season for Wallace so the pressure to perform will reach critical mass in this campaign.  RPM already has sponsorship issues, and continued poor performance on the race track will only aggravate was is already a difficult issue.  This will be a pivotal season in Wallace's NASCAR career, and we're not completely convinced he is up to the task. 

Ryan Newman
Car: No. 6
Team: Roush Fenway Racing
Manufacturer: Ford

Newman has been a wonderfully consistent veteran driver over the last several seasons.  He's proven that after 20 years of racing at NASCAR's top level, that there has been very little skill erosion.  He came into the lagging Roush Fenway Racing team last year and boosted them to 14 Top-10 finishes and a respectable Top 15 points performance.  The 42-year-old driver will stick with this team for the 2020 season.  One has to wonder when Newman will "hit the wall" in terms of performance and driving skill.  We've seen that happen to many drivers in recent years.  Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and most recently Jimmie Johnson to name a few.  The 40-to-42-year-old barrier is a tough one to break for a lot of NASCAR drivers.  Newman is quite capable of proving us wrong and posting identical if not better numbers than last season in 2020.  However, time is ticking and with it the risks of a downturn.  We're putting a buyer beware label on Newman for this season.