This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Toyota Owners 400
Location: Richmond, Va.
Course: Richmond Raceway
Format: 0.75-mile oval
Laps: 400
NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 Race Preview
Teams and drivers are preparing for a short-track showdown this week at Richmond Raceway. This will be the second short-track race of the season after Bristol challenged everyone on tire wear. Richmond is a different surface and configuration, though. Kyle Larson and Chris Buescher won the two races at the track last season, but William Byron enters the weekend on a high after winning last time out on the road course. In capturing that win, Byron became the first driver to score multiple race wins this season. There are still a number of top contenders that remain winless early this season, and they know that playoff positions will continue to dwindle as the weeks go by. Winning is the surest way into the championship fight, and pressure to visit Victory Lane will continue to increase each week. Ford, Chevrolet, and Toyota have each won at least once at Richmond in the last two seasons, which could indicate that this week's race will be a competitive affair as drivers attempt to win their way into those all-important playoff positions.
Key Stats at Richmond Raceway
- Number of races: 134
- Winners from pole: 23
- Winners from top-5 starters: 73
- Winners from top-10 starters: 101
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 13
- Fastest race: 109.047 mph
Previous 10 Richmond Winners
2023 fall - Chris Buescher
2023 spring - Kyle Larson
2022 fall - Kevin Harvick
2022 spring - Denny Hamlin
2021 fall - Martin Truex Jr.
2021 spring - Alex Bowman
2020 - Brad Keselowski
2019 fall - Martin Truex Jr.
2019 spring - Martin Truex Jr.
2018 fall - Kyle Busch
The short Richmond oval sets up another short-track battle on a flat and wide tri-oval. The track's 0.75-mile distance means traffic is one of the primary challenges teams will face, and the best way to combat that traffic is through restarts or pit strategy. Knowing those characteristics, qualifying is an important determinant of success. Most Richmond winners start inside the top 10, but winning from further back is not entirely unique. Chris Buescher started 26th last fall, but still made it to Victory Lane. It took him almost 350 laps to get to the front, though. Not starting at the front means the early goal will be not losing the lead lap. Like other short ovals, mistakes on pit road are very costly and often punished with laps lost to the leaders. As stage and the race finishes get within reach, fresh rubber and the grip that comes along with it can be the deciding factor. While this race can be won through strategy and timing, having a fast car, starting up front, and maintaining track position is the easiest way to grab a top finish.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Toyota Owners 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Denny Hamlin - $11,200
Christopher Bell - $11,000
Kyle Larson - $10,200
Ty Gibbs - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Kyle Busch - $9,700
Ryan Blaney - $9,500
Chris Buescher - $9,300
Chase Elliott - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Tyler Reddick - $8,700
Ross Chastain - $8,500
Joey Logano - $8,400
Brad Keselowski - $8,200
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Chase Briscoe - $7,600
Noah Gragson - $7,100
Austin Dillon - $6,800
Erik Jones - $6,600
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Toyota Owners 400
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Denny Hamlin - $11,200
Ty Gibbs - $10,000
Alex Bowman - $8,000
Bubba Wallace - $7,700
Erik Jones - $6,600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,000
After winning the short-track tire duel that was Bristol, Denny Hamlin (DK $11,200, FD $14,000) came out on top. His short-track exploits alone would make him a favorite this week at Richmond, but his Bristol performance makes him stand out even more. Hamlin is a four-time Richmond winner who led laps in the last seven races at the track and finished second last fall. Hamlin's Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Ty Gibbs (DK $10,000, FD $12,500) is off to a tremendous start to his second full year in the series. He enters the race weekend with five consecutive top-10 finishes, the most of any driver so far. He sits seventh in the championship standings and should be expected to visit Victory Lane soon. His three series starts at Richmond all began inside the top 10 and produced a best finish of ninth in this race last season. Another top-10 should be the expectation this week.
A potential bargain this week could be Alex Bowman (DK $8,000, FD $7,500). The Hendrick Motorsports driver is the 2021 spring race victor at this track and he started on pole in this race last season. Bowman has rocketed to 12th in the championship standings with consecutive fourth-place finishes in the last two races. Bubba Wallace (DK $7,700, FD $7,800) may also be good value for the cost. He is just outside of the playoff positions and posted three finishes of 16th or better in the last five races. His best Richmond finish from 11 tries is a pair of 12th-place finishes. One of those was last fall when he led 80 laps, too.
Erik Jones (DK $6,600, FD $5,800) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (DK $6,000, FD $4,200) are also two lower-priced options to consider at Richmond. Jones had a nice start to the season with a top-10 and top-15, but he hit a rough patch more recently. Stenhouse has been struggling since his lone top-10 at Atlanta. Both drivers have top-15 potential at Richmond. Both drivers have four career top-15 Richmond finishes and could equal that this week if they can avoid mistakes.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Christopher Bell - $11,000
Ryan Blaney - $9,500
Brad Keselowski - $8,200
Josh Berry - $7,500
Michael McDowell - $7,000
Austin Dillon - $6,800
Christopher Bell (DK $11,000, FD $13,500) heads to Richmond on the back of three consecutive top-10 finishes, two of which were first and second. Bell is one of the five drivers with a win under his belt and working on developing his arsenal for the playoffs. He has also been successful at Richmond. Before last fall's 20th-place finish, he was on a roll of five straight finishes of sixth or better at the track. Fantasy players will expect him to be fighting inside the top five again this week. A driver looking to catch Bell in the win column is Ryan Blaney (DK $9,500, FD $9,500). The defending series champion started the year with three top-fives from the first four races. His two top-15 finishes in the two most recent races have seen him slip slightly in the standings, though. Blaney's three Richmond top-10s have all come in his last five starts. He led 128 laps in the 2022 spring race when he started from pole. Brad Keselowski (DK $8,200, FD $10,500) is another Ford driver that has potential to outperform at Richmond. He is a two-time Richmond winner with 14 top-10 finishes through 28 career starts. Both of his finishes at the track last year were top-10s and he led 102 laps in the spring race. His price this week is not reflective of that kind of speed which could be a value for certain fantasy rosters.
The back half of this week's higher-risk lineup is comprised of a few drivers that haven't had the best luck to start 2024 but have the potential to begin their turnarounds at Richmond. Josh Berry (DK $7,500, FD $7,000) will make his first series start at Richmond, but his best finish of the season so far was at the other short track. His 12th-place Bristol finish matches up with his second-place finish at Richmond last season when he was substituting for injured Chase Elliott. The finish came from a late-race strategy move, but it supports the upside potential he brings to fantasy rosters at short tracks. Michael McDowell (DK $7,000, FD $6,500) would have been hoping for his turnaround a week ago on the road course. That race ended up as another frustration for him, though. Richmond hasn't traditionally been a great track for him, but that trend has turned in a positive direction in the last two seasons. McDowell's first Richmond top-10 came last season in this race with a sixth-place finish. This lineup's final selection, and another driver desperate for a turnaround, is Austin Dillon (DK $6,800, FD $5,500). Dillon sits in an unfamiliar 29th place in the championship standings with no top-10s through the first six races. Dillon does have a tendency to score top-15 and top-10 finishes at Richmond, though. He finished ninth at the track last fall and has six total top-10s from 19 career tries. A top-15 would be a nice finish for him on Sunday, but a top-10 could also be within his reach.
