This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Cabo Wabo 250
Location: Brooklyn, Mich.
Course: Michigan International Speedway
Format: 2.0-mile D-shaped oval
Laps: 125
NASCAR Xfinity Cabo Wabo 250 Race Preview
Riley Herbst scored his second career NASCAR Xfinity Series victory last time out at Indianapolis. The victory secured his spot in the 2024 playoff field, too. Locking that spot up was important with the regular season schedule drawing to a close. This weekend's stop at Michigan is one of just six races remaining for drivers to win their way into the championship battle. With Herbst's victory, just four spots remain to be filled. Ryan Sieg enters the race weekend on the bubble of those playoff spots with a small three-point margin over Sammy Smith in 13th. The battle for those playoff spots is only going to intensify as the calendar matches forward, and this week's high-speed race at Michigan will be a crucial opportunity for those on the outside looking in to insert themselves into the championship conversation. John Hunter Nemechek won last year's Michigan stop, starting 10th and leading 65 laps on his way to victory. Nemechek was the 13th different winner in as many series races at the track, and one of this year's contenders could be poised to make it 14 this Saturday.
Key Stats at Michigan International Speedway
- Number of races: 31
- Winners from pole: 3
- Winners from top-5 starters: 17
- Winners from top-10 starters: 22
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 2
- Fastest race: 169.571 mph
Previous 10 Michigan Winners
2023 - John Hunter Nemechek
2022 - Ty Gibbs
2021 - AJ Allmendinger
2019 - Tyler Reddick
2018 - Austin Dillon
2017 - Denny Hamlin
2016 - Daniel Suarez
2015 - Kyle Busch
2014 - Paul Menard
2013 - Regan Smith
The 2.0-mile Michigan International Speedway is an intermediate oval that produces high speeds and encourages side-by-side racing through its wide turns. Those wide turns offer plenty of lane choices for drivers to try different lines to attempt passes and adjust as tires age. The long straights also demand maximum power and enable drafting. Those high speeds make aerodynamics, and clean air in particular, very important and race winners typically start inside the first five rows. Michigan's long lap also opens the door to varying pit strategies. Races in the past have been decided by fuel mileage, and pit strategy remains an important factor in success at the track. Teams focused on the race win will likely flip the stages by pitting just before the conclusion of each stage to preserve track position, while those looking to bolster their point totals will likely try to rake in as many stage points as possible.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Cabo Wabo 250 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
John Hunter Nemechek - $10,500
Cole Custer - $10,300
Justin Allgaier - $10,200
Austin Hill - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Riley Herbst - $9,800
Jesse Love - $9,600
Sheldon Creed - $9,400
AJ Allmendinger - $9,200
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Noah Gragson - $8,700
Brandon Jones - $8,500
Sammy Smith - $8,300
Taylor Gray - $8,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Ryan Sieg - $7,500
Daniel Dye - $7,200
Matt DiBenedetto - $6,900
Parker Retzlaff - $6,600
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Cabo Wabo 250
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
John Hunter Nemechek - $10,500
Jesse Love - $9,600
Noah Gragson - $8,700
Daniel Dye - $7,200
Anthony Alfredo - $7,000
Matt DiBenedetto - $6,900
Last year's Michigan winner is back in the field this week to try to be the first repeat winner at the track since 2010. This will be his 11th series start of the season and he already has two wins. He won the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series race at the track in 2018 and should be one of the cars to beat Saturday. Jesse Love is another worthy consideration this week. His playoff spot is secure due to his victory at Talladega and he finished 13th last time out at Indianapolis. His record this season has been impressive with five top-fives and nine top-10s. This will be his first series start at Michigan, but he is a prior race winner at the track in ARCA competition. Noah Gragson will be doing double duty this weekend just like Nemechek. This week's race will be his third series start of the season. Gragson finished in the top 10 in both prior Xfinity outings so far and has never finished lower than third in series competition at the track. Another part-timer to keep an eye on this week is Daniel Dye. The Kaulig Racing entrant will make his seventh series start of the season at Michigan. He has two top-10s from his first six tries, including a seventh-place run at Indianapolis. This will be his first series start at Michigan, but he will bring his ARCA experience at the track for a shot at another top-10 finish this week.
Veterans Anthony Alfredo and Matt DiBenedetto round off the lower-risk selections for the Cabo Wabo 250. Alfredo enters the race 15th in the standings, needing a victory to claim a spot in the playoffs. He has been on an up and down run of races recently, which would suggest he could be in store for a better finish this week after a tough race at Indianapolis. That suggestion is backed by his average finish of 16.0 from two prior starts at Michigan. DiBenedetto looks to build on his 16th-place finish at Indianapolis. That result was his fourth top-20 from 15 starts this season and Michigan has been one of his better tracks in NASCAR. He finished seventh and sixth there in the Cup Series with the Wood Brothers in 2020 and 2021.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Cole Custer - $10,300
Sheldon Creed - $9,400
Sammy Smith - $8,300
Parker Kligerman - $8,000
Shane van Gisbergen - $7,400
Parker Retzlaff - $6,600
Cole Custer leads the series standings with a hefty 56-point lead over Justin Allgaier in second. What Custer wants is more wins, though. He has the rest of the regular season to perfect his playoff package, and Michigan will be a good barometer of where he stands. From four series starts at the track, his average finish is 10.3 with a best result of third in 2018. He finished 16th in this race last season and was first and second in the last two races leading up to this week. Sheldon Creed is in a decent spot in the standings with just points, but a win would give him the breathing room he craves. He has three top-five finishes from the last five races, including the last two, but is anxious to get the breakthrough win. He has two prior Xfinity starts at Michigan with an average finish of 11.5.
Sammy Smith has everything to race for this week. He sits just outside the playoff positions with only three points separating him from Ryan Sieg in 12th. Smith has been closing that margin with consistent top-15 finishes and he picked up a top-10 two races ago at Pocono. If he can convert good starting position at the track to a good finish this week, he should be a good value for certain rosters. He started inside the top 10 in both of his prior starts at this track. Parker Kligerman is also in the hunt for the playoffs and the win that would assure his shot at the championship. The Big Machine Racing driver finished 16th or better in the last five races and finished eighth at Michigan last season.
Three road-course victories have Shane van Gisbergen in his first series playoffs, but an oval win is still something he seeks. One of his best oval results came last time out at Indianapolis, too. It was his second oval top-five of the season and shows his potential on all types of circuits. The biggest risk he has this week is the change in crew chief as Kevin Walter takes over duties for the team this week. Lastly, Parker Retzlaff aims to improve on his ninth-place finish at Michigan last season. He started that race in the 24th position, which suggests he has even more potential at the track with a better starting spot. Retzlaff is one of the drivers needing a victory to leapfrog his way into the playoff picture.
