This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Location: Bristol, Tenn.
Course: Bristol Motor Speedway
Format: 0.53-mile oval
Laps: 500
NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview
The first elimination race of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series is on tap this Saturday night at Bristol Motor Speedway. A chaotic road course visit last week to Watkins Glen shook up the standings as none of the 16 championship contenders finished in the top five while Chris Buescher and Shane van Gisbergen battled to the finish line. That leaves only Joey Logano assured of a spot in the next elimination round with just one race left to fill the other 11 slots. Christopher Bell leads the standings but still needs at least 14 points to clinch his spot among the final 12 contenders. Harrison Burton, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin all have work to do as they enter the race in the danger zone. However, the entire points battle is a tight one and every position and stage point Saturday night could mean the difference between surviving to fight on or being eliminated. Only 30 points separate Tyler Reddick in sixth from Hamlin in 13th, and Bristol's tight confines and sometimes unpredictable drama could catch out even the most confident contenders. The pressure is on Saturday night as the playoff contenders scramble to be one of the 12 championship contenders left standing at the end of the night.
Key Stats at Bristol Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 124
- Winners from pole: 27
- Winners from top-5 starters: 72
- Winners from top-10 starters: 97
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 6
- Fastest race: 104.589 mph
Previous 10 Bristol Winners
2024 spring - Denny Hamlin
2023 - Denny Hamlin
2022 - Chris Buescher
2021 - Kyle Larson
2020 fall - Kevin Harvick
2020 spring - Brad Keselowski
2019 fall - Denny Hamlin
2019 spring - Kyle Busch
2018 fall - Kurt Busch
2018 spring - Kyle Busch
The exciting and entertaining Bass Pro Shops Night Race closes out the first round of the 2024 playoffs, and Bristol's short lap and high banks set up another unpredictable affair to shake out the first four drivers to be eliminated from the championship fight. Many cars packed onto the Bristol's half-mile speedway means drivers spend the entire race distance working traffic. Those with positive track position at the front of the field have the distinct advantage of controlling the race, but danger lurks everywhere and taking too long to pass just a single lapped car can erase a big lead. Due to the close racing, crashes at Bristol tend to affect multiple cars. However, minor incidents don't always mean the end of a driver's night with aerodynamics less important than mechanical grip. Tire management was the name of the game in the spring race, and fans should expect teams to focus on that again this week. Given the number of failures in March, it wouldn't be surprising to see some tire failures from teams that overstep the margin on tire pressures again this week, though. Practice and qualifying will be important measures for fantasy players to analyze before making their driver selections this week. Very few drivers start outside of the top 12 and win, and Kevin Harvick was the last to start lower than 20th and visit Victory Lane back in 2016.
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DraftKings Value Picks for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Denny Hamlin - $11,000
Kyle Larson - $10,500
Christopher Bell - $10,300
William Byron - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Brad Keselowski - $9,800
Ryan Blaney - $9,400
Joey Logano - $9,300
Chase Elliott - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Kyle Busch - $8,800
Ty Gibbs - $8,700
Tyler Reddick - $8,500
Martin Truex Jr. - $8,400
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Chase Briscoe - $7,800
Alex Bowman - $7,600
Noah Gragson - $6,600
John Hunter Nemechek - $6,500
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
William Byron - $10,000
Joey Logano - $9,300
Chase Elliott - $9,000
Kyle Busch - $8,800
John Hunter Nemechek - $6,500
Ryan Preece - $6,400
Avoiding the two Bristol favorites give fantasy players extra room to pick up some bargains priced further down the order this week. While William Byron (DK $10,000, FD $9,000) doesn't have the same allure as Denny Hamlin or Kyle Larson, he has a knack of advancing in the playoffs. He enters this cutoff race 10th in the standings and discounted this week likely due to his early problems at Bristol in March. He only managed a 35th-place finish because of those issues but had an average Bristol finish of 5th from the three prior stops at the track. Now is the time for Byron to turn on his playoff prowess. On the other hand, Joey Logano (DK $9,300, FD $8,500) is not shackled by needing a result this week, which gives him the freedom to race at a place he has two wins. He qualified fourth and led five laps before contact relegated him to a 22nd-place finish. He and the team will be working to translate the speed they showed in practice and qualifying in March through the full race distance this Saturday night. Chase Elliott (DK $9,000, FD $10,000) presents a bargain that fantasy players should feel confident having in their rosters, too. The former series champ has never won at Bristol, but he has frequently been a top-10 finisher. He boasts eight top-10 finishes from 14 series starts at the track and finished eighth or better in three of the last four Bristol visits.
The second half of the lower-risk lineup is comprised of non-playoff drivers that have shown outsized performances at Bristol. Kyle Busch (DK $8,800, FD $8,200) is one of the most outsized considering he has won eight Bristol races throughout his Cup Series career. That is two-times as many race wins at this track as Denny Hamlin, who is largely considered the favorite this week. Busch has been racing at his best this season for several weeks and Bristol could be a chance for him to grab that elusive 2024 win. John Hunter Nemechek (DK $6,500, FD $6,000) scored his best 2024 finish so far at Bristol in March. His sixth-place finish was one of three top-10s on the year and it came from the 26th starting spot. Those looking down the order for a likely top-15 should consider Ryan Preece (DK $6,400, FD $3,200). The Stewart Haas Racing driver finished 14th at Bristol in March and has finished 18th or better in six of his seven series starts there.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Denny Hamlin - $11,000
Tyler Reddick - $8,500
Martin Truex Jr. - $8,400
Chase Briscoe - $7,800
Alex Bowman - $7,600
Noah Gragson - $6,600
Denny Hamlin (DK $11,000, FD $14,000) may be arriving at Bristol at the perfect time. The championship contender has gone from favorite to being in danger of elimination in the first round. Two finishes outside of the top 20 have him sitting 13th in the standings, six points from safety. However, Hamlin has definitely found his groove at Bristol. He won the last two races at the track and finished ninth or better in six of the last eight. He has a doable task in front of him to advance this week, but his team is not at its best now and it needs to be. Tyler Reddick (DK $8,500, FD $9,500) just needs to avoid trouble this week to assure he stays alive in the championship hunt. His best Bristol finish was a fourth-place result in 2020. He finished in the top 15 two other times but only finished 30th in March after being one of the many drivers hit by tire trouble. Like teammate Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. (DK $8,400, FD $10,500) needs to make up ground to keep his championship flame alight. The season has been a long list of misses for the former champion and he is facing first-round elimination after barely scraping into the playoffs to begin with. He finished second in the spring race and led 54 laps, but has never won at Bristol.
Chase Briscoe (DK $7,800, FD $7,200) is above the cut line in the playoffs entering the weekend, but he still faces a tall order to keep both Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin behind him. He will likely need stage points and a top finish to keep those contenders behind him and he has not finished in the top 10 in four series tries.. He has a track win and two runner-up finishes from his Xfinity Series days, though. Alex Bowman (DK $7,600 FD $7,800) only needs to score 19 points Saturday night to assure he stays alive in the championship fight. While it isn't impossible, it is unlikely that a scenario arises in which he doesn't advance. That should free Bowman to race for a top finish, which he did in March and finished fourth. He has two other top-fives and four total top-10s at this track. Noah Gragson (DK $6,600 FD $5,000) is just racing for a top finish. We didn't get to see what he could do in this series at the track in March when he too was hit by tire trouble. He finished 34th as a result but has had some good success in the Xfinity Series at the track with two victories and two other top-10 finishes from six starts.
