NASCAR Barometer: William Byron Takes Commanding COTA Victory

William Byron had the perfect race weekend, commanding Sunday's EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas from pole position to the checkered flag to grab his second race win of the season. There were very few cars that could challenge Byron at the front, and those that could dealt with more track position challenges than the No. 24. Byron and team delivered a mistake-free afternoon with lightning fast pit stops to keep their guy out front and in position to win. In doing so, Byron also becomes the first driver to win multiple races this season, further cementing his spot in the championship playoffs.

Sunday's race was a rare one where there were no caution periods for on-track incidents. The only two rests drivers got were due to the scheduled stage breaks, which meant a grueling day for the drivers. The hot conditions and physical course was taxing and left drivers exhausted after the 68-lap race. There isn't much time for them to recover, though. This week the series heads to Richmond Raceway for the second short-track race of the season. Short-track racing also tends to be physical and grueling, which means recovery will be a priority for everyone this week. Kyle Larson and Chris Buescher took the wins at Richmond last season, and Buescher is winless so far in 2024. The championship quest barrels onward this weekend with a short-track battle at Richmond.

UPGRADE

William Byron - Byron qualified on pole and went on to control Sunday's race from the lead. He led the majority of the first stage before pitting before the break and was able to work his way back to the front each time he slipped back in traffic through the pit cycles. He led 42 laps in total and spent much of the afternoon more than a second ahead of the field. A caution-free race meant the race was his to command from the front, and that is exactly what he did, holding off Christopher Bell in the final laps to win. Byron's second season win is good news for Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports, who seemed a step behind the Toyotas the past few races. A return to short-track racing this coming week will be a good barometer to gauge that parity for the coming weeks. Byron led 117 laps at Richmond last spring before finishing 24th after contact and a spin.

Christopher Bell - Bell started on the second row and held tough in the opening laps, biding his time until the cars ahead pitted, and then went on to pick up the first stage win Sunday at the Circuit of the Americas. The playoff point that comes with that stage victory could prove very valuable for him as he continues to prepare for the championship playoffs after winning his way in at Phoenix. Bell's pace continued throughout the race, too. He chased down Byron in the final laps, but ran out of distance to truly challenge the No. 24. The runner-up finish was Bell's third top-five of the season and continues his run of excellent early-season form. Bell has never won at Richmond, but he does have four top-five and five top-10 finishes from seven series starts. He led 26 laps and finished fourth in the spring race there last season despite starting 21st.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin cycled to the front as the leaders pit at the end of Sunday's second stage and grabbed a stage win as well as a valuable playoff point. Aside from that bright spot, Hamlin spent the majority of the afternoon running in the mid-pack traffic. It was a good effort from him and the team to capture a stage win on a day they were unlikely to compete for the overall victory. Days like that, where they maximize points without having the car to win, is a championship-caliber skill to use as they build their arsenal for the playoffs. Things should continue to be on the upside for the No. 11 squad, and Hamlin has to be optimistic with back-to-back short-track races ahead. He is a four-time winner at Richmond and hasn't failed to lead a lap in the last seven races at the track. He finished second there last fall after starting third.

Ty Gibbs - Racing at the front of the field was an expectation for Gibbs on Sunday, and he delivered. The second-year driver started on the front row and spent the entire afternoon running inside the top five. While the expectations were met, his recent run of finishes has been exceeding expectations. His third-place finish Sunday afternoon was his fifth consecutive top-10 finish and three of those were top-fives. Gibbs heads to the coming week's race second in points among non-winners, just five points behind teammate Martin Truex Jr. At Richmond, Gibbs has one top-10 finish from three series tries. That result was a ninth-place finish in last year's spring race. Gibbs is on a roll and it looks like like a visit to Victory Lane is coming in the near future. Fantasy players should continue to be optimistic about his chances nearly every weekend at this point.

Alex Bowman - Another Hendrick driver that had a good day at COTA was Bowman. Despite starting 17th, Bowman steadily moved his way forward, working his way into the top five by the finish. For a short time, Bowman was even catching teammate William Byron with less than 20 laps remaining. That speed enabled him to hold on to the fourth finishing position, which was his second top-five in a row. Those finishes have pushed him into the top 10 in the championship standings and are also putting him closer to a race win. Looking ahead, Bowman is a past winner at Richmond. That victory came in the 2021 spring race when he started 21st. He also started on pole in last season's spring race, leading eight laps before finishing eighth. The coming week could be a chance for Bowman to grab his third-straight top-10 finish, potentially contending for the win, too.

DOWNGRADE

Erik Jones - Sunday's 32nd-place finish was a disaster for Jones. The situation wouldn't have been that bad were it not for a penalty for speeding on pit road with 18 laps to go that sent him tumbling down the running order. Jones was able to still finish on the lead lap but, given the race's lack of cautions, the gap created by the mistake was just too much to overcome so late in the contest. The finish was the second outside of the top 30 from the last five races, and leaves him sitting 21st in the championship standings, 28 points away from the playoff positions. A growing points gap is not going to be easy for this team to overcome. Jones has just one top-10 finish at Richmond from 13 career starts. That finish came back in 2017, too. His best finish at the track last season was 23rd, but he needs consistent top-20 and top-15 finishes now.

Michael McDowell - The hood went up on pit road early for McDowell Sunday at Circuit of the Americas. The car's power steering failed and left him struggling throughout the distance, but McDowell soldiered on and gained a heavy arm workout by muscling the machine to the finish. It was a long and exhausting day for the driver that fantasy players should have expected to be among the top finishers at the track. Mechanical troubles do happen, though. The key for this team will be minimizing any further issues and giving McDowell the equipment he needs when he can capitalize on his strengths, like road courses, since there aren't chances like that for them every week. For example, McDowell's only Richmond top-10 finish came last spring when he finished sixth after starting 15th. He also led nine laps in the fall race but finished 22nd. A top 10 next weekend would be a great recovery.

Shane van Gisbergen - Van Gisbergen had an eventful weekend. He was within reach of Saturday's Xfinity Series win only for late-race restarts to give others a chance at knocking him from the lead, which ultimately let Kyle Larson through for the win on fresh tires. SVG also suffered a poor qualifying effort for Sunday's Cup Series race. Running in traffic proved to be a detriment as he spent much of the day around the 13th position. A pit road speeding penalty added to his woes, forcing him to claw his way forward from even deeper in the field. In the end, SVG finished the afternoon 20th and on the lead lap, which was relatively decent considering how much he endured through the afternoon but nowhere near what he is capable of. A better qualifying effort next time out, and avoiding mistakes on pit road, should put him in position to challenge for another series win, though.

Justin Haley - After an impressive runner-up finish at Chicago last season, Haley has become a driver for fantasy players to consider selecting on road courses. He largely delivered on those expectations Sunday in Texas, too. The Rick Ware Racing driver kept himself out of trouble most of the day and survived the long green-flag runs to cross the line at the finish inside the top 20. That result would have been his third top-20 finish from the last five races, too. His car was disqualified after post-race inspection found it to be too light, though. That disqualification put him last in the finishing order, causing him to lose ground in the points race, too. The team said they did not intend to appeal the decision, which means they must pick things up and try to claw back the ground lost. A top-20 this week at Richmond would be a good turnaround. Haley's best finish from six starts there was 21st in the fall of 2022.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Zane Smith - Smith's 19th-place finish Sunday at Circuit of the Americas was his first top-20 result since the Daytona 500. Fans of NASCAR knew heading into Sunday's race that Smith could be one of the drivers to watch considering he won the last two CRAFTSMAN Truck Series races at the track. He proved that suspicion Sunday with a clean and smooth drive to his best finish since the opening round of the season. Considering he qualified 34th, the 19th-place finish is even more impressive, suggesting he could have finished even higher with better track position from the start. Sunday's effort should boost the team as they work to claw their way into top-20 finishes on a regular basis. Smith and the team are still learning and growing together, but finishes like Sunday's can offer them a platform from which to continue improving.