This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Pocono Raceway is a place for the strategists, and the track did not disappoint them. Track position proved to play a pivotal role in the outcome and Team Penske gave Ryan Blaney the advantage when he needed it. The reigning champion took control of the race for the first time with less than 50 laps to go, weathering two restarts to stretch his lead and drive to his second win at the site of his first series victory. The win moved him further up the standings and showed that Penske is making strides toward being at their best when the playoffs get underway. It was a day in which Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing were expected to prevail, but Penske fired a championship warning across their bow with the confident victory for Blaney and another top-five for Joey Logano.
With Pocono in the rearview mirror, just five races remain in the regular season. Four playoff spots remain for drivers to win their way in, and chances are running out quickly. This week, the series returns to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The race marks the return to the oval for the first time since 2020. The new car is expected to improve the single-file processional races on the 2.5-mile rectangle had become before the racing moved to its infield road course. Kevin Harvick won the last two Indy oval races and only Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch have won there in the past. The historic track's return makes everything new again to set up a unique challenge this week as the quest for the playoffs continues.
UPGRADE
Ryan Blaney - Blaney and his Team Penske crew worked on their car throughout Sunday's race, ultimately giving the reigning series champion the fastest car for the final laps. He took control of the race with just over 40 laps remaining and never looked back, holding off all challengers through two restarts to claim his second victory of the season. Blaney and team have been gaining momentum for several weeks and will be hoping to maintain that trajectory into the playoffs. Sunday's win made Blaney just the fifth driver this season to win multiple races with several more opportunities remaining before the knockout rounds for the championship commence. At Indianapolis, Blaney has six prior starts on the facility's oval. His best finish of those was seventh in 2019 and his average is 20.2. Fantasy players should expect him to improve upon that this time, though.
Denny Hamlin - While Hamlin has yet to move off of three 2024 wins, he continues knocking on the door. Hamlin has been one of the most consistent contenders at the front of the field and Sunday's stop at Pocono was the same. He qualified fourth, won the second stage, and then challenged Blaney for the win at the finish but couldn't get the job done. His second-place finish was his eighth top-five of the season and he now sits fourth in total points. Yet again, Hamlin is making an early case for being a championship favorite, and many will wonder if this is the year he can finally get the job done. At Indianapolis, Hamlin has eight top-10 finishes from 15 starts. His average finish in that time is 13.4 and he finished third there three times. Hamlin seems likely to continue his streak of top finishes again this week.
Alex Bowman - Bowman's third-place finish Sunday at Pocono was his second top-five finish in a row and sixth for the season. It came a week after winning at Chicago to secure his spot in the playoffs and momentum has swung has direction. That momentum is coming at a good time, too. With just a handful of races remaining before he needs to be at his best, Bowman and the No. 48 crew need every opportunity to put the pieces together to make a run deep into the elimination rounds. While Indianapolis is not a playoff track, the No. 48 team will be using it for preparation. Bowman has five prior starts at the track and a best finish of 21st. This week's race will be an excellent opportunity for them to test how far they have come and how much further up the finishing order their work can propel Bowman at a place he hasn't had success at before.
Martin Truex Jr. - While Sunday's race did not generate the victory Truex was hoping for, it was a step forward that could lead to a race win in the near future. Truex was quick all weekend at Pocono, qualifying third and going on to lead 14 laps and winning the first stage. That was the only stretch of the race he spent in the lead, but he did finish eighth to record another top-10 after back-to-back finishes worse than 20th. Truex now has 12 top-10 finishes this season but would arguably trade all of those for a victory. He sits top of drivers without a victory in the standings, but his spot in the playoffs is not yet secured. Each week that passes without a first-time winner this season is a step toward confirming his spot in the playoffs, but a win of his own is the ultimate goal. He gets another chance at Indianapolis this week, which is a place he has just three top-10 finishes from 16 career starts.
Joey Logano - While his teammate won the race, Sunday was also a good day for Logano. The driver of the No. 22 machine started in the top 10 and spent the entire race there, too. Logano added valuable stage points in each of the afternoon's segments before moving forward to claim his fourth top-five of the season and second in the last three races. Logano's race, combined with Blaney's win, show that Team Penske is making up ground as the playoffs approach. Fantasy players should be paying attention to those positive steps because it could make these drivers championship contenders if the team can continue the progress. Indianapolis should be a good measure of their improvement, too. Logano has eight top-10 finishes from his 12 starts at the track. If he can be among the top 10 or better again this week, the front of the pack may be within reach in time for a championship run.
DOWNGRADE
Ross Chastain - Still lacking a win in 2024, Chastain's playoff hopes took a hit Sunday at Pocono. He lost control in the second stage and clouted the outside wall. The damage was heavy enough to end his day, which left him with a 36th-place finish. That result was his third consecutive finish outside of the top 20, and now he sits on the playoff bubble. Only 27 points separate him from safety in the playoff battle, but another first-time 2024 winner in the remaining regular-season races would knock him out of the championship slots. Chastain has made three prior starts on the Indianapolis oval. His average finish from those tries is 21.7 and and his best result was 17th. Chastain's championship hopes are slipping through his fingers and he needs to make something happen in the next five races.
Kyle Busch - Busch's championship situation continued its deterioration Sunday at Pocono. The former series champion only qualified 24th, and he failed to score any stage points in the race's first two segments. That was all bad enough, but in the final stage he was turned and slid through the grass, and back into traffic, triggering a multi-car crash. Busch's day was done with the incident and it was the fourth race from the last five he finished worse than 25th. Busch now sits 19th in the standings and is more than 100 points behind the playoff positions. With five races left, Busch is fighting for his season and needs to win to be part of the championship picture. Busch is a two-time Indianapolis winner, though. He hasn't raced at the track with Richard Childress Racing, but he finished sixth the last time he was there. His average finish on that oval is 12.1 from 16 career starts.
Todd Gilliland - Gilliland's prosperous few weeks came to an abrupt end Sunday at Pocono. After sensing some problems with the brakes, his No. 38 machine's front rotor failed on the front straight, knocking him out of the running with just 115 laps complete. Prior to that race, the Front Row Motorports driver had been climbing up the standings with a series of top finishes. He hadn't finished lower than 17th since Dover in April in what was one of the best strings of results of his career. The test will now be about how quickly he and the team can recover. The mechanical issue that ruined his race Sunday should not indicate any systemic trouble but the loss of momentum can hurt as well. Up next is a track Gilliland has not yet competed on in the Cup Series and entering the weekend with confidence would have been a boost.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - Pocono was another setback for Stenhouse, who previously had been on an upward swing of finishes. While racing in the pack, Stenhouse's No. 47 was a victim of the contact between Busch and Corey Lajoie, crashing Stenhouse out of the race in the process. The DNF was a second result of 30th or worse from the last five races, which also includes three top-10s. While Stenhouse and team have solved some of their trouble, the next step on the improvement journey is consistency. Stenhouse has climbed to the top 25 in the standings but would have needed consistent top-15 finishes to still be in contention for the playoffs. At this point, he needs a race win from one of the next five races to do it. Indianapolis is a place to lower expectations of a quick turnaround, too. Stenhouse's best finish from eight starts is 12th, which was his only top-20 finish there.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Ty Gibbs - The Pocono race weekend started on an optimistic note for Gibbs when he earned his second series pole position. The race itself started well for him, too. He led the first 17 laps, but that was about the extent of the positivity. Gibbs slipped back in the running and failed to score stage points in either segment before retiring the car with rare engine trouble after roughly 130 laps. It was a disappointing outcome to a day many thought might bee his best opportunity of scoring his first series win. Gibbs still holds one of the four remaining playoff spots but that position won't be secure without that elusive win. However, despite Sunday's stumble, Gibbs has been demonstrating the speed that could win a race. This week's visit to Indianapolis will be his first on the big oval and questions about mechanical reliability may linger.
