This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Ross Chastain pulled off an unlikely victory, his first of the 2024 season, after starting 20th and holding off playoff contender William Byron in the final 20 laps. The race looked like it would be Christopher Bell's to lose in the early miles only for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver to slip up and allow Byron through to the stage victory. History repeated itself at the end of the second stage when Bell again slipped and made contact with the wall. Byron's Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman scored that stage win. In the final stage, Chastain clawed his way through the competition and grabbed the lead from Martin Truex Jr. on the final restart. From there, the Trackhouse Racing driver held the gap to Byron steady through to the checkered flag, upsetting the playoff contenders and bagging his first victory of the year.
Chastain's victory means no playoff driver is yet confirmed among the final eight contenders, and two wild-card races remain to determin who will advance. Talladega Superspeedway is the first of those stops, a place Tyler Reddick triumphed in the spring. He, Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, and Daniel Suarez all head there outside of the transfer positions. None of the championship contenders will feel comfortable heading to Talladega, where big trouble can happen in the blink of an eye. The need for points, top finishes, and race wins are sure to ramp up the action in another superspeedway showdown next week.
UPGRADE
Ross Chastain - Sunday's race started quietly for Chastain. He started 20th and failed to score stage points in either segment. However, the team was playing the long game, and Chastain's car was at its best in the second half of the afternoon. The Trackhouse Racing driver picked his way forward and then got the chance to take the lead on the final restart of the race. Once he did, there was no looking back as he managed the gap to William Byron all the way to the checkered flag to win his first race since last year's season finale. Without the playoffs to concern him, Chastain will be looking for more race wins to build momentum into the offseason. This coming week at Talladega will be another stop the team will carry the belief they can win. Chastain won in 2022 and finished 13th there earlier this season.
William Byron - Byron qualified well and stalked the leader through the first stage Sunday at Kansas. When Christopher Bell made a mistake, Byron was there to take advantage, taking the lead and holding off two Team Penske Fords to capture the first stage victory of the day. He and the team maintained that strength throughout the rest of the afternoon, finishing fourth in the second stage and remaining in position to race for the win at the finish. In the end, Chastain's gap was just too much for the No. 24 to overcome and Byron was forced to settle for a runner-up finish to start the second round of the playoffs. However, being the top finishing playoff driver gives him the lead in the standings with two races remaining before eliminations take place. Next up is Talladega, where Byron finished 15th or better in his last five visits, including a runner-up finish in last season's fall race.
Alex Bowman - A late restart at the end of the second stage left Bowman on the front row, which he then used to grab the lead and win the second segment to earn valuable points. He started the round behind the cutline and every point will matter if he is unable to win. Sunday's haul paid off as he moved up to sixth in the standings with an eight-point advantage over Tyler Reddick in the first of the elimination places. There are still two races to go in the round, but the No. 48 team can look at Sunday's Kansas race as a mission accomplished. Next up, and arguably more tricky to navigate, is an unpredictable superspeedway. Bowman has two top-five finishes at Talladega, one of which came earlier this season. He also finished 13th or better in three of the last four races at the track. The team has improved their performances since the start of the playoffs and are confident of continuing that trend through to Phoenix.
Ryan Blaney - Mistakes on pit road can be disastrous, especially in the playoffs when there is little if any room for error. Unfortunately, a mistake is exactly what happened to Blaney in the final stage Sunday. A loose wheel forced him to make an unscheduled stop, losing position toward the sharp end of the field and falling off of the lead lap. However, he and the team battled back and used multiple late restarts to work themselves back into a top position to finish the race fifth. That, coupled with stage points from both opening segments, helped push Blaney from fifth in the standings to second with two races remaining in the round. Blaney is one driver that will likely feel more confident going to Talladega, too. He has three victories there and finished first or second in three of the last four visits. Sunday's race may end up being another defining moment from the reigning series champions.
Chase Elliott - Kansas had been a good venue for Elliott in the past, but he lost his qualifying effort after the team had to replace an engine before the race. Elliott started at the rear of the field and spent most of the afternoon trying to work his way forward. With perseverance, he made it to the top 10 in the final miles, which did more than simply salvage much needed points for the playoffs. He finished ninth in the race, which enabled him to remain inside the transfer spots in the playoff standings. Sunday's outcome might have been better without the engine change, but it was a championship effort to overcome the trouble and not lose ground. With two more races left in the round, the No. 9 crew remain in good position to advance. Elliott has two prior Talladega victories and hasn't finished outside of the top 20 there since 2021 and a road course stop follows. The next few races could play to his strengths.
DOWNGRADE
Kyle Larson - One week after dominating at Bristol, Larson became the first playoff contender to suffer an issue at Kansas. A cut rear tire caused a spin into the wall, and Larson immediately headed to the pits for repairs. The team worked diligently throughout the rest of the race to make repairs, but Larson continued slipping backward in the final laps and finished 26th. He was the second to last finisher among the playoff contenders and fell from first in the standings to fourth with only 18 points separating him from the elimination zone. Larson's trouble at Kansas was a missed opportunity in this round of the playoffs at a track he has the potential to win at. The next race may not present the same opportunity. Larson has been terrible at Talladega, scoring just one top-five finish in 19 series starts. His best finish from his last four races at the track was 15th last fall.
Kyle Busch - Circumstances were shaping up nicely for Busch, putting him in the hunt to get his elusive 2024 victory, but a stumble occurred as he attempted to lap Chase Briscoe as the finish approached. While making the pass, Busch's outside lane was squeezed and the two-time series champion lost control and spun out of the lead. That misstep erased any chance he had for victory and left him little time to recover before the finish. When the flag waved, Busch was scored in 19th, which was completely unrepresentative of what he should have been capable of. The incident was more of what has largely been a trying season for the No. 8 team, but flashes of competitiveness remain, and a win before the season is over is not out of reach. Busch is a two-time Talladega victor who finished 20th or worse in three of his last four track visits but won there last spring.
Austin Cindric - The playoffs started well for Cindric as he advanced to the second round through two top-10s and a 13th-place result. The team made strides after winning their way into the championship battle and that work showed in the last three races. Difficulties crept in at Kansas, though. Cindric qualified 17th for the race but was able to score stage points in the first segment. He continued to run among the top 15 with a potential top-10 within reach until a spin and slight contact with the inside wall pushed him back down the running order. After the incident, Cindric was not able to fully recover and and finished 34th, last among the playoff drivers. He now sits last in the standings with 29 points separating him from the top eight and needing top results from the next two races. Both tracks are places Cindric can get the job done, though. He finished fifth at Talladega last fall.
Tyler Reddick - Sunday's stop at Kansas was largely expected to be an opportunity for Reddick. With the start of the new playoff round, Reddick entered the weekend third in the standings and was the defending race winner. The weekend started as planned with a fourth-place qualifying effort, but that promise quickly evaporated. Reddick fell down the running order quickly and failed to score points in either stage. His situation didn't improve as the day went on and he finished 25th. The missed points sent him tumbling down the championship standings, too. Leaving Kansas, Reddick is now out of the top eight and four points behind Joey Logano. The No. 45 team cannot endure another miss like Kansas and expect to advance. Time runs out quickly in this playoff format and Reddick is on the backfoot. He did win at Talladega earlier this season, but no driver has been able to sweep victories at a track yet this season.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Zane Smith - The second half of the season continues to pay dividends on Smith. He had an impressive race Sunday at Kansas, finishing 10th for his fourth top-10 finish of the season and second in the last three races. All of those top finishes have come since June, and Smith has been adding frequent top-20 results along the way, too. That roll has been impressive not just because Smith is in his first full season in the series, but he is also driving for one of the underdog teams in Spire Motorsports. Even better news is that the whole organization has been finding success. Teammate Carson Hocevar grabbed stage points in both of Sunday's segments before being part of a late crash. Another positive note is that Talladega is a spot Smith and the team can have another chance at success, too. Three of the team's four drivers finished in the top 20 there in the spring.
