This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Rain washed out qualifying and interrupted the running of Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400 forcing the final two stages of the race to be postponed until Monday. Sixteen different drivers led laps in a hotly contested race that saw 26 lead changes where strategy and track position played a key part in the outcome. As pit and tire strategy played out through the leaders in the final stage, the Toyota of Tyler Reddick consolidated a position at the front. Two late cautions set up overtime restarts where Reddick grabbed the lead and held off William Byron to the finish, capturing his second victory of the season. His victory leaves three playoff spots available to be claimed by a first-time 2024 winner with just two regular season races remaining to be run. That means Martin Truex Jr., still winless in 2024, will breathe slightly easier with a comfortable points margin to the cutline despite contact with the wall late Monday afternoon. Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace remain locked in a tight battle for the 16th and final playoff position, though. Chastain will head to Daytona with a one-point advantage over Wallace after the pair finished 25th and 26th respectively.
The coming week's race at Daytona is likely the biggest question mark of the two races remaining to finalize the 2024 playoff field. William Byron captured the victory there in February's Daytona 500 while it was Reddick who prevailed at Talladega. Teams will have different agendas depending on their playoff standing, which should make Saturday night's battle under the lights one that could shake up the playoff standings again to set up a frantic Southern 500 at Darlington to close out the regular season.
UPGRADE
Tyler Reddick - After six straight finishes of sixth or better, Reddick finally scored his second 2024 victory Monday afternoon at Michigan. Reddick looked like a contender as he raced in the top 10 Sunday afternoon before the rain but fell back to 20th Monday when racing resumed. The fast oval had not been kind to Toyota in recent years, but Reddick positioned himself to race for the lead through the final pit cycle, battling at the front for the win through two overtime restarts to capture the victory. The No. 45 team has been consistently quick since the All-Star Race, and the momentum they are building bodes well for their chances of advancing deep into the playoffs. At Daytona, Reddick only has two finishes inside the top 20 from 10 career starts and both of those were top-fives. He crashed out earlier this season in the Daytona 500 after starting third.
Kyle Busch - Busch dueled his way to the front and won the second stage when racing resumed Monday at Michigan. After running confidently in the top five throughout the afternoon, the team tried one final two-tire stop in an attempt to put Busch into the lead as stops cycled through the field. It wasn't enough in the end. Despite having a quick car, and one of his best races recently, Busch's No. 8 machine lacked the edge necessary to enable him to stay out front. His fourth-place finish was his third of the season and second top-10 from the last five races, though. After a very difficult season, Busch and his Richard Childress Racing team may be starting to find some traction. Unfortunately, that turnaround is likely coming too late for the playoffs. Busch has one Daytona victory from 2008, but he led laps in the last six Daytona races and finished 12th or better in four of the last five visits.
William Byron - A two-tire stop just before the conclusion of the second stage got Byron off pit road first. That track position gave him an advantage as he led the opening laps of the final stage. His pace remained throughout the final segment, and Byron was in position to battle for the win during the final overtime restarts. However, the No. 24 wasn't able to hold off the charging Reddick, who led Byron to the checkered flag. The second-place finish was Byron's eighth top-five finish of the season and demonstrates the teams increasing competitiveness as the playoffs loom. With two races remaining to perfect their package for a championship run, the No. 24 crew have things pointed in the right direction. Byron won the season-opening Daytona 500 and the fall race in 2020. While the coming week's race may not be a direct link to the playoffs, it will be another spot the teams can use to continue moving themselves forward.
Denny Hamlin - A spin through the infield in the first stage from Hamlin brought out the first caution of the race. Damage to his car was minimal, but it meant that he went from battling for the lead to having to make up ground. Luckily, he and the team didn't encounter any further problems and were able to work their way back into an unlikely top-10 finish. The effort put forth to salvage a top finish despite the trouble shows the resilience and perseverance of this team. In just a few more weeks, the points regained following another spin could mean the difference between advancing to the next round of championship eliminations. If the team can continue performances like Mondays, they may be tough to overcome in the championship fight. Hamlin has three Daytona victories, but he hasn't finished in the top 10 at the track since the 2021 Daytona 500.
Ryan Blaney - Blaney started inside the top 10 at Michigan and leveraged the race's first caution to get to the front and win the race's opening stage. The Team Penske driver remained inside the top 10 through the majority of Monday's resumed running and was still there for the final restart of the day, too. Contact and having to check up on the final return to green eliminated the defending series champion's momentum and he slipped back to an unrepresentative 18th-place finish at the line, though. Blaney and team should still feel confident as their build toward the playoffs continue. Michigan's finish was their first result worse than 11th since New Hampshire, and they still have two regular-season races to come at tracks they have been fast at before things really begin to count. Blaney's lone Daytona victory came in the fall race of 2021. He crashed out of the last two races there but led laps in five of the last six.
DOWNGRADE
Christopher Bell - Michigan started out as an opportunity for Bell to extend his streak of top performances to a third straight race, but contact in a multi-car crash knocked him out of the race early. Like others caught in the melee, it will be important for Bell and his No. 20 team to recover quickly and not let the bad luck be a trigger that starts a slump. With the playoffs just on the horizon, the team will be working to ensure everything is perfected in advance. They have two more races to get that job done to ensure they start the playoffs on their best possible footing. The coming race at Daytona could be a boost in that direction, too. Bell has two top-10s from nine Daytona starts and both of those came in his last three tries. He led 22 laps on his way to third at the track in February.
Joey Logano - One week after being pushed out of a victory at Richmond, Logano was one of a handful of drivers to suffer right-rear tire issues late in the second stage. The playoff contender was able to limit the damage done, pitting for fresh tires, but dropped out of the top 20 at a place where track position is a crucial element of success. That loss of track position bit quickly when he was collected in a multi-car pileup at the end of the second segment, though. Following that hard contact, the team packed up their equipment and began to shift their attention to the coming week's race. Logano has one Daytona victory from 31 career starts, but that doesn't reflect his ability at the track. At the superspeedways, Logano is often pushing at the front and the fact that he led laps in the last 11 straight Daytona races demonstrates his true potential.
Kyle Larson - Larson had a fast car for Sunday's race at Michigan, but he lost control in traffic late in the second stage. His spin collected several cars, causing significant damage to the No. 5, taking him completely out of the race. With the playoffs approaching, it will be important for Larson and the team to put Monday's disappointment behind them and gain as much knowledge and momentum as possible from the next two races before the knockout rounds begin. Looking ahead, Larson only has five top-10 finishes from 20 career Daytona starts. He finished 11th in the Daytona 500 in February, which was his best finish since finishing 10th in the 2021 Daytona 500. While the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets have been very fast at the track, Larson has had his share of trouble. Getting to the end of Saturday night's race with a decent result would be a step forward in overcoming Michigan's pain.
Austin Cindric - The cancellation of qualifying forced Cindric into a poor starting position to start Sunday afternoon. When racing resumed Monday morning things weren't much better and Cindric got loose while racing in traffic and smacked the outside wall, compounding his problems. The Team Penske driver was not a factor following the incident and circulated through the afternoon to collect a 28th-place finish, which was his second finish outside of the top 20 in as many races. While his recent trajectory is a concern, Cindric does not have to worry about securing a spot in the playoffs. However, Daytona is a place that plays to his strengths. He won the Daytona 500 in 2022 and is often competitive there. He led 13 laps in this year's Daytona 500 but finished 22nd after getting caught up in a late-race crash. Cindric needs to capitalize on the coming week's race in order to take some positivity into the first round of the playoffs.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Zane Smith - Smith came from the 27th starting position to claim his second top-10 finish of the season and fourth top-20 from the last six races. The former NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series champion is delivering a noticeable uptick in results since the All-Star Race after scoring just two top-20 result in the races prior to then. Monday afternoon's Michigan result came against the run of play from the majority of the race, too. Smith spent a significant portion of the distance running outside of the top 20 but then used the multiple restarts in the final segment to claw his way forward. His momentum could help him this coming week at Daytona, too. The superspeedway was the site of his first top-15 finish of the season, and his Spire Motorsports know how to give their drivers the right package for that venue.
