This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Sunday's Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway appeared to have been settled between Denny Hamlin and Ross Chastain when a late caution sent the field into its first of what would be five attempts to restart and finish the race. Through the ensuing carnage and five restarts, Chastain crashed out and Hamlin had to give up the lead in favor of fuel. Through all the twists and turns, and and extra 31 laps, Joey Logano managed to stretch his fuel mileage to pick up his first race win of the season. It was an unpredictable end to a race that appeared to have been wrapped up when Hamlin retook the lead six laps before the scheduled distance. In the end, only three drivers that started inside the top 10 managed to finish there. In fact, three of the top four finishers started outside of the top 20 and Logano himself wasn't even in the top 10 just two laps shy of the race's initial 400 miles. It was definitely a race of opportunity for several drivers and Logano was the most opportunistic of all.
Logano's victory was valuable for the playoff spot it earned him, but it also gives him the comfort of securing that playoff position before another road course outing. The series returns to Chicago this week for the second installment of a NASCAR Cup Series street-course race, and last year's inaugural event was anything but predictable. Wet weather and the unique track gave the field plenty of tests and road course ace Shane van Gisbergen passed all of them to win in his series debut. He'll be back to defend that victory this coming weekend, but the series regulars won't want to be humbled by his abilities again.
UPGRADE
Joey Logano - Logano was 14th at the scheduled distance of Sunday's Ally 400, but great fuel mileage and a big helping of good fortune cycled him to the front to win his first race of 2024. As the overtime restarts piled up, the seas in front of the No. 22 opened, allowing Logano to continue stepping closer and closer to the front. In the end, he was able to get to the lead and stretch his fuel as far as possible. It was so close that he ran out of gas during his celebratory burnout after winning. His win was a long time coming, too. The former champion showed on multiple occasions earlier this season that he had the speed to get to Victory Lane, but something thwarted those efforts each time. However, all the bad luck was returned in his favor Sunday, who now is assured of a playoff spot ahead of another potentially challenging schedule stop at Chicago. Logano started ninth and finished eighth in that race last season.
Tyler Reddick - Reddick was one of the few drivers that started inside the top 10 at Nashville and actually finished there, too. He started Sunday's race sixth and picked up stage points in both segments before nearly having a shot at the victory during the final overtime restart of the day. Reddick's No. 45 machine was one of the fastest in those final two laps, but he couldn't find a way around Logano in the lead and was edged into third in the final inches before the finish line by Zane Smith. The top-five was his seventh of the season and his 12th top-10 finish of the season. Those 12 top-10s are more than any other driver so far, too. With five top-10s in the six races since the All-Star weekend, Reddick might be one of the hottest drivers right now. Chicago's street course should be more of the same, too. Reddick has been quick on road courses and scored stage points in both segments of last year's race.
Ryan Blaney - Despite qualifying 18th and spinning through the grass in one of the late-race incidents, Blaney rallied to finish sixth and score his eighth top-10 finish of the season. It was his third top-10 from the last four races including his win at Iowa. Blaney led a total of 26 laps Sunday afternoon and added some stage points in the second segment to make it a valuable afternoon for the team. The points and momentum are valuable as the team now shifts to building their arsenal for another championship run. They have more work to do at Chicago, too. Blaney started 17th at the track last season and went on to finish 33rd after a crash and losing time while the team made repairs. Blaney finished 12th and seventh in the two road course races run so far this season, but Chicago presents its own unique challenges.
Denny Hamlin - Sunday's Ally 400 appeared all but won for Hamlin until a rash of cautions and restarts seriously upset the order in the final miles. Hamlin started the race on pole and led 70 total laps before finally having to relinquish his lead to ensure his car had enough fuel to make it to the finish. Despite giving up the victory to ensure the finish, Hamlin still managed to finish 12th in the chaos that unfolded before the checkered flag. That was his first top-15 finish since he finished second at Gateway, too. While Sunday's finish ended his short slump of finishes worse than 20th, it was a race win that was within his grasp and that will be tough to take. Peaking during the playoffs is the most important thing, and Hamlin will continue building toward that this coming week in Chicago where he finished 11th last season.
Christopher Bell - Bell picked up in Nashville where he left off in New Hampshire, qualifying third and passing Denny Hamlin to win the first stage of the day, his eighth of the season. His strength continued through the second stage and a rain delay to sweep stage wins for the fourth time in his career, too. It was all too good to last through the remaining miles, though. His dominant performance came undone when he fell back in traffic. While racing his way back through the field in the final stage, Bell lost control and clouted the outside wall, knocking himself out of the race, ending his run of top-10 finishes since the All-Star Race. While the finish wasn't representative of his strength, Bell remains one of the fastest in the series at the moment. That should continue this week at Chicago where Bell started fourth and won both stages last season.
DOWNGRADE
Ross Chastain - Despite starting 20th, Chastain clawed his way to the front and looked set to be one of the two drivers to decide Sunday's Ally 400. He led 45 laps before Hamlin chased him down, making the pass for the lead, but a late overtime restart promised Chastain another chance to get back in front. Unfortunately, a mistake from Kyle Larson put the No. 5 into Chastain's rear corner, spinning him into the wall and causing a pile up of several cars. Chastain exited the race in the incident with just four points for the weekend's effort. Nashville is typically a place Chastain performs well at, and fantasy players would be wise to remember his speed from Sunday's race more than the unfortunate finish. He and the team are back to the drawing board as they seek to maintain their spot in the playoff standings.
Brad Keselowski - Keselowski's Nashville woes continued in Sunday's Ally 400. The owner driver was poised to turn around his poor record at the track with a fifth-place qualifying effort, but the afternoon didn't unfold as planned. He finished in the top 10 in both opening stages, but those points were the highlight of his day. While racing in the final segment, contact with Austin Dillon sent him spinning hard into the outside wall. As a result, Keselowski finished 25th, the last of the cars able to finish the race, and he has yet to score that elusive Nashville top-10 finish. He needed a decent result from Sunday, too. He had contact the week prior and now heads to another challenging track. He started 20th and finished 24th at Chicago last season and probably isn't expecting to be one of the drivers fighting for the victory.
Kyle Busch - Not much has been going Busch's way lately and Sunday's race at Nashville was no different. He qualified poorly but fought throughout Sunday's race to gain track position. By the final laps he had it and was fighting tooth and nail to keep it. However, several overtime restarts later, Busch ultimately became a victim of the late-race carnage and crashed out of the race. He now sits 19th in the championship standings and is now more than 100 points out of playoff positions. Busch's best finish since the All-Star Race was 12th at Sonoma, and his season has taken a hard turn for the worse. Given his position in the standings, Busch and the No. 8 team effectively need a race win to have their shot at the playoffs. Busch started 18th and finished fifth at Chicago last season, making up ground in the tricky conditions, but nothing has been going his way recently.
Ty Gibbs - Another driver thwarted by Sunday's multiple restart attempts was Gibbs. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver was poised for a respectable afternoon and a potential top-10 finish when he collided with the spinning machine of Ross Chastain. The damage to the No. 54 Toyota was heavy and took away any chance Gibbs might have had for a good finish. When the checkered flag finally waved, Gibbs was classified 23rd. Points from the first stage helped to lessen what would have been a bigger blow, though. Still, Gibbs sits 13th in the playoff standings and hasn't finished in the top 10 since Charlotte. Time is running out to get his season back in gear in time to make a championship run. Chicago would be a good place for Gibbs to start that turnaround, though. He has potential at the track given his rod course abilities and finished ninth there last season.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Zane Smith - Fortunate timing of his last stop coupled with several attempts to finish the race helped Smith land his best finish in the Cup Series to date. His second-place finish Sunday evening at Nashville was his first top-five in the series and just his second top-15 this season. Smith sits 34th in the point standings, nearly 300 points out of the top 16, and top finishes like Sunday's are a big boost when they occur for Spire Motorsports. The coming week's race at Chicago will be Smith's first on the street course. He finished 19th and 16th at the two road course races so far this season and was 30th and 34th in the two series races on road courses that he attempted last season. While Smith may not be the driver fantasy players opt for each week, Sunday's finish at Nashville was a good surprise for anyone who did.
