NASCAR Barometer: Elliott Wins Second Road Course of 2019

Chase Elliott overcame skidding off track and into the barrier to win his second road course race of 2019 at the Bank of America ROVAL 400 Sunday. The victory was his third of the season and pushes him further up the playoff standings as the round of 12 is set to kick off this week at Dover International Speedway. Elliott led 35 of the 109 laps, taking the lead from Kevin Harvick on the final restart of the race, after starting 19th. That is just part of the story, though. On the lap 66 restart he sped deep into turn 1 and into the barrier in a disastrous mistake that could have ended his day. It didn't, though, and Elliott marched back, taking advantage of cautions and track position to be in position to pounce again five laps before the end.

The initial 16 playoff contenders are now down to 12 as the second round of eliminations begins this week at Dover. Aric Almirola, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch and Erik Jones all bow out of the fight and will work to be best of the rest in the remaining races. Martin Truex Jr. takes the point from teammate Kyle Busch thanks to his two victories in the round of 16 and enters Dover with the chance to sweep victories at the circuit this season.

UPGRADE

Chase Elliott – Elliott continued to demonstrate his road course prowess at Charlotte on Sunday, winning the second stage and then recovering from a mistake to come back to the front and win his second road course race of the season. It was a stunning drive from the playoff contender, as his race looked finished after he drove too hard into the first turn and ending up in the wall. The mishap didn't slow him down, though, and he drove back to the front to overtake Kevin Harvick on the final restart. Elliott is a past winner at Dover and has an average finish of 4.4 from seven career starts at the track. He was fifth earlier this season after starting from pole.

William Byron – Byron pieced together an impressive weekend on the Charlotte road course and saw himself through to the second round of playoff eliminations as a result. He qualified on pole Friday and then went on to lead 23 laps and finish sixth in Sunday's race. It was a well-earned result for the young driver who kept his nose clean throughout the chaotic race. He enters the round of 12 in 11th and will head to Dover looking to gain ground. In three starts at the track his average finish is 13.7, but he led five laps there earlier this season in a top-10 finish after qualifying on the front row. Another weekend like he had in Charlotte would get him off to a great start this round.

Kyle Larson – Larson took advantage of a late restart to take the lead and win the first stage at Charlotte. Unlike last season those would be the only laps he led in the race, though. Still, he finished 13th and is safely through to the next round of the playoffs. He sits ninth after the points are reset and will try to get out of the blocks quickly this week. He has been incredible at Dover despite never winning, too. His only finish worse than 12th at the track was 26th in 2016. He finished third there earlier this season and started from pole in the 2018 spring race. His average finish from 11 career starts there is 8.0.

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer did exactly what he needed to do in Charlotte to see himself into the round of 12. He will start the next three-race round 10 points behind the top eight and will need this round to go more smoothly than the last. His top-five effort throughout the Charlotte weekend was the difference-maker compared to the 25th-place disaster in Las Vegas with which he started the round. He won't be able to afford a slip like that this time, though. He has three top-10s from the last four Dover races and finished ninth there earlier this season. He has never won at the track but led 40 laps on his way to a runner-up finish last spring.

DOWNGRADE

Erik Jones – Jones faced a must-win situation to advance in the playoffs in Charlotte, but like the previous two races of the round, it ended in disaster for him. He didn't show the speed capable of projecting him into the round of 12 at the road course and then was caught up in a crash on a late restart in just the first stage. It was typical of how his playoffs have gone thus far, and due to that his championship hopes will have to wait at least one more year. There is still racing to do, though, and Jones has turned his Dover performances around recently. He has two top-10s in the last two starts there and an average finish of 11th from five career starts.

Kurt Busch – The win Busch needed to move into the round of 12 did not materialize Sunday. The former champion qualified a dismal 23rd and couldn't work his way cleanly to the front. He was involved in contact and only managed to finish 20th. Problems throughout the round of 16 made it very difficult for him to advance, and without pulling off the small miracle in Charlotte, he had no chance. His playoff run is over and now he will look to pick up top finishes and wins if they present themselves. Busch is a former winner at Dover, but that victory came all the way back in 2011. He was 13th there earlier this season after back-to-back fifth-place finishes at the track.

Ryan Newman – Newman's consistent charge to top-10 finishes came to a grinding halt in Charlotte when he slipped to a 32nd-place finish on a day he needed another top 10. That result simply wasn't good enough, and it ended his time in the playoffs. The poor finish was just his second finish outside of the top 12 in the last seven races and was his worst result of the season. He failed to earn any stage points and was caught in two accidents. Bad days like that quickly put an end to championship hopes. Still, Newman has performed better than expectations for much of the season and could still bring home top-10 finishes for fantasy players, including this week at Dover.

Aric Almirola – Almirola's run in the playoffs ended in Charlotte, too. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver hadn't finished in the top 10 since July and that wasn't good enough for him to advance among the top 12 drivers in the series despite him picking up stage points from finishing seventh in the first segment. The rest of the race just wasn't what he needed to see his way through, and another finish outside of the top 10 sealed his fate. This team will need to spend the remaining races in 2019 figuring out where to get the extra bit of performance they need to climb further up the standings. That work begins at Dover this week where Almirola hasn't finished in the top 10 since 2015.

Kyle Busch – Busch's wins from the regular season are paying dividends for him now. He only had one top finish in the first three races of the playoffs and slipped to second in points behind teammate Martin Truex Jr. after totals were reset for the round of 12. He failed to finish Sunday's road course race due to suspension trouble, which was his second finish worse than 35th in the last five races. Frustration at not being at the front and winning will be mounting, and Busch will have to handle it well to keep his playoff push alive. He has a 60-point cushion to the drop zone, but maintaining that will get harder as each round progresses. He drove from 22nd to 10th at Dover earlier this year and needs a top finish to begin reversing the trend.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Alex Bowman – Bowman's weekend at the Charlotte road course started well with a front-row qualifying effort, but it all came undone in Saturday's practice when he wrecked and was forced to use a backup car for the race. That switch meant he had to start from the rear. If things weren't already bad enough, he lost control on the back straight on the first lap and pitted to make repairs, putting him well behind where he needed to be early, and then was in a crash near the end of the first stage. Bowman was second at Dover earlier this year but will have to beware of retaliation from other drivers after his aggressive driving in Charlotte saw him through to the round of 12.