NASCAR Barometer: Drydene 400

Kyle Larson Wins, Advances to the Round of 12

Kyle Larson finally found the breakthrough he has been searching for since his last win more than a year ago by winning the opening race of the round of 12 at Dover International Speedway in Sunday's Drydene 400. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver had significant potential at Dover after a strong start to the weekend after qualifying on the front row and pulled everything together to seize the opportunity to score an important win and take some momentum away from the championship favorites. The victory is his first of the season and sees him safely through to the next round of playoff eliminations, which is the furthest any car in the Ganassi organization has ever progressed.

Several playoff contenders suffered trouble Sunday and will be working to dig themselves out of an early hole with two races to get the job done. Joey Logano, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney all finished outside of the top 30 with mechanical troubles. While Larson is safely through, those three and Clint Bowyer all sit outside of the cutoff line heading into Talladega. William Byron sits tied with Logano in the final transfer spot and his gap to teammate Alex Bowman grew to 17 points. 

UPGRADE

Kyle Larson – Larson finally seized the opportunity at Dover International Speedway and claimed his first victory at the circuit. The win came at the optimal moment for him as it propels him into the next round of the playoffs, which is further than any other Chip Ganassi Racing car has ever gone before. Now Larson can relax and work on improving through the next two races to come out of the gate swinging again in the penultimate elimination round. Larson has an average finish of 20.6 from 11 career starts at Talladega with a best finish of sixth in the 2016 edition of this week's race. The focus for Larson is now firmly on the final four races of the season and doing enough to see his way through to the finale at Homestead.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin started Sunday's Drydene 400 from pole and dominated the first stage to win the opening segment of the round of 12. He was quick throughout the second stage and then lost the edge in the third and final segment. Still, he was strong enough to finish fifth on an afternoon where he even felt at one point that the engine would expire. He remains a threat to win the championship this season. Hamlin continues to put himself in position to win races and that is a great position to be in as the races begin to wind down. Hamlin crashed out of this spring's Talladega race but does have a win at the circuit from 2014. He finished fourth in last year's race.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex worked past Denny Hamlin to drive away for the second stage victory of the afternoon in Dover but didn't have the speed to track down and overcome Kyle Larson for the first win in the round of 12. Sunday was a strong afternoon for Truex and shows that he should continue to be considered the favorite to capture this season's title in Homestead. He will have to navigate five more races to make it there, though. Next up is a gamble, too. Truex's best Talladega finish was fifth twice (2006 and 2015). He hasn't finished better than 20th at the track since 2016, though. His average finish from the last five starts there is just 25.4.

Alex Bowman – Bowman's war of wills continued paying dividends last week in Dover. The Hendrick Motorsports driver overcame the adversity that hit other playoff contenders and turned in a third-place finish. That was his second consecutive top-five finish and third top-10 in the last five races. Performances like that will see him progress through the playoffs and remaining in position to win could help him accelerate that effort. Bowman was the runner up at Talladega earlier this season, which was his best finish at the track. He has had two top-10 finishes at that track since taking over the wheel of the No. 88 and just one position better this week would see him safely into the next round of playoff eliminations.

DOWNGRADE

Joey Logano – Logano wasn't even able to make it to the green flag before trouble struck at Dover, putting him behind the competition before the round of 12 even truly began. A broken rear axle sent him to the garage before the pace laps were completed, leaving him in the garage and making repairs while the rest of the field started the race. When he returned to the circuit he didn't make many friends as he continued to race hard despite being more than 20 laps behind the leaders. Logano spoke earlier in the week of wanting to leave Dover with a top finish and not having to make up ground at Talladega where he is a three-time winner.

Chase Elliott – While Logano was the first car in the garage it wasn't too long before Elliott also suffered a major mechanical issue and exited the race. The first race of the round of 12 wasn't even 10 laps old before the prior race winner was in the pits with significant trouble. Elliott has just two races left to haul himself out of the hole Dover dug for him and Talladega this week is not exactly a place anyone will be confident of getting a result from. Elliott won at there earlier this season and could use another well-timed win this week to erase last week's despair, though. He isn't completely in a must-win situation in the playoffs yet, but things certainly became dimmer after Dover.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney was having a top-10 day on an afternoon when many of the other playoff contenders faced trouble until he suffered his own trouble. With about 100 laps remaining in the race he lost his brakes and was forced into the garage to make repairs while the rest of the field circulated under green-flag conditions. It was a terrible start to the round of 12 and didn't do anything to help build confidence in this team that has not been performing where they would like through the past few months. This week opens the door for uncertainty, which might end up being a good situation for this team that is struggling. In 10 Talladega starts Blaney has just two top-10 finishes, though. His best finish in the last five races at the track was 15th earlier this year.

Ryan Newman – Newman suffered another poor finish at Dover just one week after being eliminated from the playoffs. He seems to be losing his top-10 touch, which is bad news for fantasy owners. His 22nd-place finish on Sunday was his second consecutive finish worse than 20th, which was something he hadn't experienced since March. Newman has spent a long time proving this season but doesn't have the consistency he needs this moment. He finished seventh at Talladega earlier this season and Roush Fenway Racing has a notable superspeedway program. That could be the medicine he needs to return to his top-10 form. Until then, though, fantasy players may wish to be cautious when looking for options to fill out their rosters.

Chris Buescher – Buescher is looking ahead to even greener pastures in 2020. He spent his prior seasons in the Cup series with under-funded teams, scraping for top finishes whenever he could. The 2019 season has been good to him with four top-10 finishes, flirting with the top 20 in points. However, Sunday at Dover was a disappointment as an engine failure cut his day short and relegated him to the 36th position. That was Buescher's worst finish since the Daytona 500 back in February. Earlier this season he started 31st and finished 30th at Talladega. His best finish at the track came last spring when he finished 11th. His average finish from eight career starts there is 22.1.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Matt DiBenedetto – Knowing he won't be back with his current team next season hasn't slowed DiBenedetto down any in recent weeks. His efforts earned him an excellent opportunity for the 2020 season and he continues to deliver top finishes despite being in a lame-duck position at Leavine Family Racing. A prime example of that was his quiet seventh-place finish last week at Dover. That finish was his seventh top-10 of the season and his first since Darlington. This has been the best season of DiBenedetto's career, but perhaps next year he can achieve even more with a better funded team. DiBenedetto has a best finish of 18th (twice) at Talladega with a career average finish of 27.8 from nine career starts.