This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Rain threatened to disrupt Sunday night's visit to Richmond Raceway before things even got started, but thanks to Goodyear and NASCAR's development of a treaded tire last season, the race was able to get underway largely as scheduled. Even more impressive was the fact that no incidents occurred while running on the damp track and NASCAR made the call to switch to dry tires at the 30-lap mark. The clean start was indicative of the race as a whole, too. Only twice, outside of the scheduled stage breaks and competition caution to move to dry tires, did the field come under yellow and all 36 cars were still running at the finish. The race's long green-flag runs meant pit strategy and tire management made the difference. After starting the race out front, Kyle Larson lost the lead as tire strategy played out in the second segment, giving rise to Martin Truex Jr., who went on to dominate much of the race's second half. However, one final late caution set up a dash to the pits, which Denny Hamlin used to get out first, setting himself up to claim his second win of the 2024 season. In all, the night was a success for Hamlin and NASCAR.
The series gears up for another short-track battle this week, too. Staying in Virginia, the teams head to Martinsville Speedway. The flat track's long straights and tight turns pose a different set of challenges than Richmond, but promises the same door-to-door action typical of NASCAR's short tracks. Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney won last year's races at the circuit. Martinsville also hosts the penultimate race of the playoffs, which means this week's race has extra significance to teams hoping to return in the fall still in contention to be one of the final four championship contenders.
UPGRADE
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin grabbed his second 2024 victory, getting by teammate Martin Truex Jr. in an overtime finish. It was his second win from the last three races and second on a short track. Despite missing stage points in the first two segments of the night, Hamlin kept himself in contention throughout the distance. When the opportunity arose, his pit crew seized it. A quick stop before the final restart put him in position to challenge for the win, an opportunity Hamlin wasn't going to let slip away. The playoff contender pounced when the green waved, and pushed his way into the lead to capture a second race win and the momentum that comes with it. That momentum could extend to this week, too. Hamlin is a five-time Martinsville winner who finished inside the top five in both races at the track last season with a combined 192 laps led.
Kyle Larson - Larson put his car on pole position for Sunday night's Richmond race, dancing carefully on a wet track and treaded tires at the start to stay up front and capture the first stage win of the night. The former champion dominated the first stage, but opted for a one-stop strategy in the second stage that didn't play out as anticipated. The race's first caution due to an incident left Larson behind the leader, losing him the valuable track position he had been using to stay out front. He never recovered from that loss. Late contact with Bubba Wallace ending up just being another hurdle on his quest back to lead, but a quick recovery got him back in shape to challenge for a top-five, and that third-place finish was his third top-five of the season. Larson won the spring race at Martinsville last season and has five top-10s from his last seven starts at the short oval.
Martin Truex Jr. - A two-stop strategy in the second segment put Truex in the lead Sunday at Richmond for the first time. A late caution in that stage meant he stayed at the front for the segment win and into the final run to the checkered flag, too. From there, the race was in his hands until an unexpected caution with three laps to go set up an overtime finish. On that final restart, Truex was muscled out of the way and slipped down to fourth place by the finish, missing out on taking home the night's big prize. When all was said and done, the former champion led 228 laps and captured a stage win but heads to Martinsville still seeking his first win of 2024. He is a three-time winner at that track and started from pole in the fall race last season. The team has not been lacking pace, but will feel hard done having let the Richmond opportunity slip through their fingers.
Joey Logano - At Richmond, Logano finally got the finish he has been waiting for in this early season. The Team Penske driver qualified inside the top 10 and picked up stage points in both segments before capitalizing on a late-race restart to score a second-place finish. It was Logano's first top-five of the season, which boosts him to 19th in the standings and gives he and the team a success to use as a platform for more. The team has dealt with their fair share of bad luck early this season and they'll be hoping Sunday night's turnaround was the beginning of the end of that. The team has been consistently quick so far, which will give them hope of race wins and top finishes sooner rather than later. Logano has one career win at Martinsville and finished in the top 10 there in his last nine starts. Richmond's top finish should give them the confidence and momentum they need to back it up with another this coming week on another short track.
Chase Elliott - Elliott bagged his best finish of the season at Richmond with a fifth-place finish. The former champion started alongside his teammate on the front row but slipped backward early. Elliott stopped the bleeding on dray tries and drove to a top-10 finish in the opening segment. The rest of the night was one of avoiding mistakes and keeping his car in contention for a top finish. He did just that, driving t his first top-five of the year, which ranks him ninth in the playoff standings. Elliott is winless since 2022 and anxious to return to the playoffs after missing out last season, and Sunday's fifth-place finish is a good step on that path. That finish may make him one of the more attractive fantasy options at Martinsville, too. He won there in 2020 and has three top-10s from his last four track visits. Elliott is a driver many expect to be contending for wins each week, but it has been a long road back to the front after a challenging 2023 season.
DOWNGRADE
Kyle Busch - Busch's woes continued Sunday night at Richmond. After qualifying in the middle of the pack, Busch was the first to bring out the caution late in the second stage when he drifted high and clouted the outside wall. After pitting for tires, Busch marched his way back through the field but wasn't able to capture any stage points. He also dealt with poor balance throughout the night and steadily fell down the running order to a 20th-place result, which was his fourth finish of 20th or worse from the last five races. The team is not on the same page. Whether it is mishaps on pit road or a miss in the setup of the car, Busch has not gotten what he needs to contend for wins on track. They get another chance this week at another short track, though. Busch is a two-time winner at Martinsville, but he hasn't finished higher than 21st in the last three races there.
Austin Dillon - It isn't just Busch who is having trouble this season at Richard Childress Racing. Teammate Austin Dillon has been struggling, too. Richmond was much of the same for him. Dillon qualified a lowly 22nd and ended the night in 24th, which was an otherwise uninspiring effort. Following Richmond, Dillon sits 28th in the standings with no top-10 finishes yet. His only top-20 finish so far was a 16th-place result at Las Vegas. That trend has to turn around if Dillon expects to contend for the playoffs. Regardless, Richard Childress Racing is behind the competition with work to do before the season becomes a lost cause. There may not be any quick fixes either. At Martinsville, Dillon has just three top-10 finishes from 20 career starts. His best finish at the track last season was a 12th-place finish in the spring race. A repeat of that this coming week would be a significant improvement.
Austin Cindric - A top-10 start didn't translate into a top finish for Cindric. In fact, his 23rd-place finish at Richmond was fourth finish outside of the top 20 from the last five races. Cindric's only top-10 finish so far this season was his fourth-place finish at Atlanta. Superspeedways and road courses continue to be the best venues for fantasy players to consider selecting Cindric, but even the prior week's road course race only netted an 18th-place finish. Continuing this run of form will not get the team into playoff hunt, and that should be something this team is aiming for. Unfortunately, right now they're just working to cling to their 20th-place position in the standings. Despite a ninth-place Martinsville finish last fall, the coming week's race is not likely to be a big change in form for him either. Until weekly results turn around, fantasy players may wish to avoid the No. 2 team.
Ryan Blaney - Sunday night's 19th-place finish was the third straight finish outside of the top 10 for Blaney. That trend is a complete reversal of the three straight top-five finishes he scored before the Bristol race. With teammate Logano finishing second, Blaney will have left the race weekend wanting more. Blaney now sits eighth in the standings and without a victory. The past few weeks have been a short skid for the team and they'll be focusing on Martinsville to ensure they stop the slide. Blaney won there last fall, though. He led 145 laps that race from the 11th starting position. All 10 of Blaney's last starts at Martinsville have resulted in finishes of 11th or better, too. Blaney and team will be expecting to make a rapid return to the top 10, but fantasy players may want to monitor this minor blip in results to ensure it doesn't turn into something bigger.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Josh Berry - It might not have been much of a surprise after his second-place Richmond finish while substituting for Chase Elliott last season, but Berry backed that result up with a confident race in his full-time No. 4 ride Sunday night. He started the race with stage points in the first segment and went on to keep his car inside the top 10 for much of the evening. He led two laps and finished 11th on the night, which was his best finish of the season so far and second top-15 from the last three races. Consistent top-15 finishes, along with being able to race inside the top 10, will keep this team moving forward and into the top 20 in the standings. The coming week's race at Martinsville should be an opportunity for them to do just that. This will be Berry's first series start at the track, but he did win an Xfinity Series race there in 2021.
