This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
After an uncharacteristically caution-free night at Richmond Raceway, all of the fireworks came in the final miles. Austin Dillon pieced together a great night only for a crash to set up a quick trip to pit road for an overtime finish. After being beaten by Joey Logano for the lead, Dillon surged from behind in the final corner to tag the No. 22 machine, knocking Logano out of the lead. Dillon barely held control over his car as he then collided with Denny Hamlin, who was poised to slip through the crashing pair to win. As the smoke cleared, it was Dillon who forced his way back to the front to take the checkered flag and one of the four remaining playoff positions. Logano and Hamlin both recognized the desperation of the move that thwarted their chances, but neither minced words when it came to criticizing Dillon's actions. The Richard Childress Racing driver will have to watch out for payback in the coming races as both Logano and Hamlin will have the No. 3 machine firmly in their sights for retribution once the playoffs commence.
After the wreckage was cleared at Richmond, all sights focused on the coming week's trip to Michigan International Speedway. The coming week will be the 107th race at the track, and it was Chris Buescher who captured the victory there last season. With Dillon's victory, there is one less playoff spot to claim through victory, and Buescher will be aiming to repeat his run last season to emulate Dillon by winning his way into the 2024 playoffs. Just three races remain for the championship contenders to be set.
UPGRADE
Austin Dillon - Desperate times call for desperate measures, and Dillon's season was certainly desperate. Upon finding himself in position to barge his way to the win, he seized the opportunity and claimed an unlikely playoff spot with it. It had already been a comparatively good weekend for the No. 3 team with a top-10 qualifying effort, stage points in both segments, and laps led. The race victory was the cherry on top, salvaging an otherwise dismal season that had just two top-10 finishes prior to Sunday's victory. Dillon will need a major turnaround to advance through the championship knockout rounds, though. He and the team have three races to reverse their fortunes again in preparation. At Michigan, Dillon has two top-fives and five top-10s from 20 career starts. He finished 19th and led two laps in last year's race.
Christopher Bell - Bell delivered as one of the prerace favorites for success Sunday night at Richmond. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver qualified fifth and climbed his way into the lead after just 45 laps. He went on from there to win the opening stage and then finished second in the second stage, too. In the end, Bell led a total of 122 laps, dropping from the lead for the final time with just over 50 laps remaining and losing a shot at the win due to a speeding penalty. However, his sixth-place finish was his 13th top-10 of the season, which is the second most this season behind Tyler Reddick. Bell continues to make his case as a championship favorite and still has three races to continue building his case to advance deep into the knockout rounds, if not all the way to Phoenix. Michigan will be a test, though. In five series starts, Bell has a best finish of 13th despite starting on the front row two times.
Bubba Wallace - Wallace raced the Richmond weekend like his playoff hopes were on the line, and he successfully leapfrogged Ross Chastain in the standings to return to the playoff positions. With three regular-season races remaining to get the job done, Wallace holds a razor-thin margin over Chris Buescher in 17th. While he will face intense pressure to stay there, Wallace delivered Sunday. First, he qualified inside the top 10. He then stood his ground, scoring stage points in both segments of the race before cinching his way forward to claim a fourth-place finish. It was his fifth top-five of the season and second in as many races. Pressure is well and truly on the No. 23 team and so far they are rising to the occasion. That trend could continue at Michigan, too. From 10 series starts, Wallace has one top-five and two top-10s with a combined 43 laps led in his last two visits to the circuit.
Daniel Suarez - Goodyear's option tire opened the door to some competitors Sunday night at Richmond. With the extra grip and well-timed tire changes, Chastain surged to the front and led 93 total laps on the race, adding his fourth career stage win and first since 2022 on the way to a 10th-place finish. It was his fifth top-10 of the season, and the stage win gives him a valuable point that he will carry into and through the playoffs. Having won earlier this season, Suarez's playoff hopes were already secure, but the team needed to hone their arsenal for the knockout stages. Sunday night's top-10 was their second top-10 in a row and third finish of 11th or better from the last five races. Peaking at the perfect time is a goal in the current championship format, and this No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team is definitely reaching their best at the opportune time. Now the goal will be to maintain that momentum through the next three races and into the championship rounds.
Ross Chastain - While he slipped a bit in the playoff standings, Chastain gave it his best effort at Richmond and took home his third top-five finish of the season. Part of the reason for Chastain's success was their ability to put the Goodyear option tires to good use. The softer rubber coupled with a sound pit strategy enabled both Trackhouse Racing cars to surge forward in the field. In the end, Chastain was the biggest mover of the race coming from the 22nd starting position to finish fifth. The effort keeps Chastain within the playoff conversation and he now is tied with Chris Buescher with just a three-point gap to Bubba Wallace. The battle for the final playoff position will remain a heated one, but continued efforts like Sunday's will keep Chastain in contention if it can be sustained. At Michigan, Chastain scored his best track finish last season when he finished seventh.
DOWNGRADE
Joey Logano - Richmond was yet another race where Logano showed the speed necessary to battle for the win but had his effort cut short by some unexpected circumstance. Sunday's issue was simply being a car standing between Austin Dillon and a race victory. Logano started Sunday's race inside the top 10 and pulled himself into the top five early. While poised to pick up another victory with a quick overtime restart, Logano was unceremoniously rammed into the wall, tumbling down the finishing order as Dillon continued to bulldoze his way to the front. Logano's win means the incident isn't as impactful to his season hopes as it could have been, but the No. 22 team lost their opportunity to collect a top finish that would be adding to their confidence ahead of the playoffs. He and the team will have to put the distraction behind them this week at Michigan where Logano has three prior victories from 27 starts.
Kyle Busch - A sprained wrist following his accident at Indianapolis was just one more obstacle Busch had to contend with at Richmond. The Richard Childress Racing driver qualified 12th and failed to make an impact further up the running order through the night. A slow stop in the middle of the second stage also curtailed the team's efforts to improve on their position, and Busch settled for a 12th-place finish. The result was his fourth finish outside of the top 10 from the last five races, and Busch now sits 20th in points with a 122-point gap to Bubba Wallace and the final playoff position. The team now has just three regular season races remaining to steal a victory to earn a playoff position. Busch has won at Michigan in the past, but he also crashed out of the last two races at the track.
Alex Bowman - Bowman's string of top finishes leading up to the summer break came to a halt Sunday night at Richmond. Prior to the two week vacation, Bowman secured his playoff spot with a win at Chicago and then immediately grabbed his sixth top-five of the season with a third-place finish at Pocono. He crashed late in the Brickyard 400 and hoped for a better return at Richmond. Instead, Bowman's weekend started with a 17th-place qualifying effort and a failure to find the settings necessary to move forward. His 28th-place finish Sunday night was his second consecutive finish outside of the top 25, which is his first two-race stretch like that of the season. Bowman and the No. 48 team need to return to their top-10 finish potential quickly, and the coming week's stop at Michigan could be a tough one to do that at. Bowman has just one top-10 there from last five and he dropped out of last year's race due to steering issues.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - A late crash ruined a potential top-15 result for Stenhouse. Instead, his forgettable 2024 season continued to deal body blows to the veteran. Sunday's 36th-place result was the third finish outside of the top 30 for him and the team from the last five races. The disappointing season has Stenhouse sitting 26th in points with only three chances remaining to score an unlikely win to secure a playoff spot. Points are out of the question. Stenhouse needs a victory to salvage the season. That victory isn't likely to come at Michigan either. Stenhouse's best finish at that track was an eighth-place finish in 2017, and he hasn't finished better than 12th since then. He 21st last season after starting 27th. Daytona will likely be Stenhouse's best remaining chance to steal a victory and claim an unexpected playoff appearance.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Martin Truex Jr. - Following Richmond, Truex will be thankful for the significant point tally he amassed early in the season and ruing the missed chances he had at race wins. With three races remaining in the regular season, Truex is still sweating out a potential playoff appearance in his final full-time season in the series. The team's momentum has clearly stalled, and that couldn't have been more evident at Richmond, a venue he has dominated at in the past. There was reason for optimism when he qualified second, but that quickly evaporated as he suffered a pit mishap in the second stage and was then dealt an engine failure that took him out of the race. His last-place finish was his fourth result worse than 20th from the last five races. Truex might have been celebrating a clinched playoff spot Monday morning, but he will instead have to sweat it out at least one more week.
