This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Joey Logano and his Penske Racing Ford was the combination to beat in Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Logano led the field to the green flag from pole position, but lost grip in the first turn to give up the early lead in what was probably his biggest mistake of the day. Sunday's win was Logano's first of the season and earns him a spot in NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup. No car was able to truly challenge the No. 22, and he held off all advances during restarts to claim the Michigan victory ahead of this week's break in action, before the season resumes in Sonoma, California.
While Chase Elliott continued to take strides toward the front of the field, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. extended their runs of bad luck. While true parity at the front of the field is difficult to see, Michigan was an extremely difficult track to project for fantasy players. Sonoma has also been more difficult to forecast in recent seasons, but a look at momentum following last week's race should reveal clues as to what to expect in two weeks.
UPGRADE
Joey Logano – Logano had another stellar outing last week in Michigan. The Penske Racing driver was the one to beat all afternoon, as he commanded from the front. While his start from pole wasn't the greatest and he lost traction in the first turn, he rebounded to be the fastest car almost all afternoon.
Joey Logano and his Penske Racing Ford was the combination to beat in Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Logano led the field to the green flag from pole position, but lost grip in the first turn to give up the early lead in what was probably his biggest mistake of the day. Sunday's win was Logano's first of the season and earns him a spot in NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup. No car was able to truly challenge the No. 22, and he held off all advances during restarts to claim the Michigan victory ahead of this week's break in action, before the season resumes in Sonoma, California.
While Chase Elliott continued to take strides toward the front of the field, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. extended their runs of bad luck. While true parity at the front of the field is difficult to see, Michigan was an extremely difficult track to project for fantasy players. Sonoma has also been more difficult to forecast in recent seasons, but a look at momentum following last week's race should reveal clues as to what to expect in two weeks.
UPGRADE
Joey Logano – Logano had another stellar outing last week in Michigan. The Penske Racing driver was the one to beat all afternoon, as he commanded from the front. While his start from pole wasn't the greatest and he lost traction in the first turn, he rebounded to be the fastest car almost all afternoon. He eventually sealed the victory by virtue of a picture perfect restart with less than 10 laps remaining in Sunday's race. From there the No. 22 was able to confidently cruise to victory ahead of the other 39 challengers. Logano finished fifth in last year's Sonoma race, and being this season's most recent winner will give him momentum during the off week.
Chase Elliott – Elliott had another fantastic day in Michigan. The rookie driver led 51 laps in Pocono only to turn around and lead at Michigan as well. Fuel was an overarching concern for the No. 24 in the final laps of Sunday's race, however. His last pit stop produced refueling trouble that made the team question whether there was enough gas in the tank to get him to the finish. Luckily, a late caution ensured he was able to get there. The Sonoma road course will be a new challenge for the young driver, but his maturity and strong team should get him through.
Martin Truex Jr. – Bad luck continues to haunt the No. 78 team despite the win in Charlotte. Truex lost control of his loose car heading into turn four on Sunday to bring out the first caution of the race. By continuing to fight throughout the afternoon, the team worked its way back inside the top 10 in the final 50 laps. Truex lost grip on a late restart, which lost him some ground, and he ultimately crossed the finish line in 12th position. Truex won at Sonoma in 2013, but crashed out of last season's contest. If this team can shake off the bad luck that has shadowed them, Truex could be tough to beat.
Brad Keselowski – An early gamble on fuel almost ended in disaster, as Keselowski sputtered just before the first caution period of the race. The caution saved him from losing significant ground early in Sunday's race. It came at the perfect time for Keselowski, allowing the No. 2 car to pit as the leader instead of coasting into the pits under green. The team rebounded into the top 10 pretty quickly after the scare and ultimately was a fixture among the top runners for the rest of the afternoon to score a top-five finish, while his teammate visited Victory Lane. In six Sonoma starts, the Penske Racing driver has just one top-10 finish, which was in 2011.
Tony Stewart – After spinning and taking out teammate Danica Patrick in Pocono, Stewart leveraged the new rules package to turn in one of his best recent performances in Michigan. The veteran driver was a fixture inside the top five all afternoon in a performance that was reminiscent of the Stewart of old. When the checkered flag waved, Stewart was seventh, and that was his second top-10 finish of the season. The former champion has two road course wins in Sonoma, but hasn't finished in the top 10 there since 2012 when he was runner-up. Stewart is in a much better position now than he has been the past few seasons, which is a fitting sendoff for the former champion in his final season.
DOWNGRADE
Kyle Busch – An expired engine forced Busch to finish outside of the top 30 for the fourth time in a row last week. Flames shooting out of the bottom of his car sent him to the garage in a plume of smoke in Michigan, and he was never to return and finished last in the field. He hasn't finished in the top 10 since Kansas in early May, and the current streak can be classified as a slump for the No. 18 crew. Busch is the defending Sonoma winner, but momentum is certainly not in his corner after such a long string of poor results. Things will have to turn around for the Joe Gibbs Racing team, and Sonoma could be a good place for that to happen.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Contact between Chris Buescher, A.J. Allmendinger and Earnhardt put the field under caution in Michigan and put the No. 88 effectively out of Sunday's race. Practice pace had been decent for the No. 88 team, but a deep starting position and that spin created a large deficit to be recovered by the veteran driver. All the damage caused from getting bumped by Buescher forced Earnhardt off the track and eventually out of the race, where he recorded his fourth 2016 finish outside of the top 30. Earnhardt has gotten better results at Sonoma more recently in his career. He scored two top-10 finishes in his last two tries, which were his two highest finishes at the track in 16 career starts.
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson's unfortunate luck continued in Michigan. The No. 48 was fast in practice and was putting together a decent race until a loose Trevor Bayne made contact and pushed Johnson into the wall and caused right-rear damage late in Sunday's race. Johnson has had just one top-10 finish since Richmond, which came in last month's Coca-Cola 600, and hasn't been able to break free of the slump that has marred his recent progress. Sonoma could provide an opportunity for Johnson to outperform his recent results, however. He has one win at the track and hasn't finished outside of the top 10 since 2008. However, including his 16th-place finish in Michigan, Johnson has only finished in the top 10 once in the last six points races.
Ryan Blaney – Blaney was in a prime position to capitalize on a fast car in Michigan, but his hopes went up in smoke after late contact slowed his march toward a top finish. The car was capable of scoring a top-10 finish on Sunday but ran outside of the top 20 with less than 30 laps remaining due to the contact. Blaney is another rookie with no Sprint Cup experience on a road course, so Sonoma should be a big challenge for him. He has two top-10 finishes in the last four points races, but the weekend in Sonoma will be all about gaining experience. It would be difficult for fantasy owners to realistically expect him to be a top contender in two weeks.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Ryan Newman – Newman is worthy of the biggest surprise at Michigan due to his quiet creep forward in performance. The Richard Childress Racing driver has been struggling in 2016 so far, but slowly has started to turn in regular top-15 finishes and hasn't finished worse than 12th in the last three races. While it still isn't where Newman would like to be in the running order, progress is visible. His ninth-place finish last year at Sonoma was his sixth at the track in 14 career starts. While Newman likely needs a victory to make his way into this season's Chase, the team is no longer just treading water. More should be forthcoming, and fantasy owners can stop avoiding him.
