NASCAR Barometer: Keselowski Hits the Las Vegas Jackpot

The NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers faced delayed start, rain, high winds and dust storms at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Sunday's Kobalt 400. Brad Keselowski was the driver who outlasted the conditions and competition to claim his first win of 2016. It wasn't a smooth ride for him to the front. He was one of many drivers forced to overcome speeding penalties from pit road, and had to overtake both his teammate and Kyle Busch in the final laps to put the trophy in his hands.

Penske Racing was a disappointment in the first two races of the season, but cured their ills in Las Vegas. Both Keselowski and Joey Logano practiced well, and had top starting positions from qualifying. Their pace wasn't just for single laps, either. The pair was among the fastest five cars all afternoon despite the conditions, which were unprecedented. NASCAR's new aerodynamic rules coupled with the variable weather made for a very unpredictable race. Six drivers had double-digit tallies for laps led, and predicting the winner was even more difficult than normal. All of that uncertainty bodes well for an exciting season, but raises the challenge of picking a top fantasy roster each week.

UPGRADE

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski was putting his rediscovered Penske prowess to good use at the front of the field Sunday until being nabbed for speeding on pit road late in the Kobalt 400. He was one of many drivers to run afoul of the speed limit on Sunday, and his penalty was to start at the rear of the field with less than 100 laps left in the race. The hole he dug himself wasn't too much of an issue, though. Keselowski charged back to the front and had speed that no one else could match in the final laps. With this win he could pull himself out of his teammate's shadow; scoring his first Phoenix win this week would cement that.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson picked up right where he left off in Atlanta by jumping out front in the middle of Sunday's race to pace the field. By the time the race distance was nearly complete, the No. 48 had put himself into a four-car battle for the win. As the leaders began dropping from the point Johnson remained steadfast in contention. While it wasn't enough to take back-to-back wins, it was good enough to demonstrate that this team is going to be an early-season contender for wins nearly every week. That could be bad news for the competition this week, too. Johnson has four Phoenix wins. He hasn't visited Victory Lane at the track since the fall of 2009, but don't count him out.

Kurt Busch – Busch took the pole position at his home track to lead the field to green in Sunday's race. The Stewart Haas Racing driver led until NASCAR's competition caution at lap 30. He exited that caution period at the back of the field after being penalized for speeding on pit road. Ultimately, however, it was a late accident that took him out of contention for the win. Still, his pace was enough to earn him a ninth-place finish on a very challenging day. He should be capable of challenging for the win again next week if the tenacity remains.

Joey Logano – Penske Racing appears to have fixed the issues that slowed them the first two races of the season. Logano benefited from those fixes by qualifying well and leading laps early. He remained in contention late into Sunday's race and battled for second with his teammate in the final laps. He didn't have the pace of Keselowski, and was forced to settle for a top-five instead of the win, as a result. Logano has yet to notch a win at Phoenix but finished in the top 10 in each of his last five visits to the circuit. Penske could be back to the championship-contending form they had in 2015, which means fantasy players need to have Logano on their radars each week.

Kyle Busch – For the second week in a row, Busch has had a car capable of remaining inside the top runners all afternoon. The defending champion joined teammate Matt Kenseth at the sharp end of the field in the closing laps and managed to stay out front well into the closing miles of Sunday's race. In the end, Keselowski simply had the faster car in the final laps, and Busch wasn't able to maintain the speed he needed to hold him off. Busch's last Phoenix win came all the way back in 2005, but he did score three top-10 finishes in the last four races there. If the team continues to perform like they have so far, wins will be coming very soon.

DOWNGRADE

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth's rough start to the 2016 season continued in Las Vegas. Despite having one of the fastest cars throughout the race, he lost control and was smacked from behind by Chase Elliott late in the race. Las Vegas marked the third consecutive race where Kenseth had a car capable of winning but lost due to a crash or penalty. The team could use a reset button, but they can take solace in the fact that they had the speed to win. Phoenix may be a good opportunity for the No. 20 team to get a decent finish under its belt as a confidence builder. Kenseth hasn't won there since 2002, but a top-10 run would pay dividends in lifting the spirits of this challenged team.

Carl Edwards – A crash in qualifying sent Edwards to a backup car and forced him to start Sunday's race at the back of the field. His race prospects didn't appear to diminish much, though. His spare car was actually faster than the primary car he first tried to qualify. However, the penalty of starting in the back of the field was just too much for him to overcome. Edwards was racing in the middle of the pack when a crash ahead of him damaged his car and eliminated any chance he had of salvaging a top result from the weekend. Instead, Edwards now has to wait until next week in Phoenix to find redemption. He's a two-time winner at Phoenix.

Kyle Larson – For being one of the most promising young drivers on 1.5-mile ovals in his freshman season, Larson has struggled since. His third season in the Sprint Cup series hasn't started as he hoped, and his difficulties continued in Las Vegas. Larson's first incident involved him losing control while racing A.J. Allmendinger. He hit the wall in that spin, and then spun and hit the wall again when Regan Smith crashed ahead of him later in the race. Larson's day was well over before the final incident, but Sunday was representative of this young driver's struggle to live up to expectations. Larson's lone top-10 finish at Phoenix came in this week's race last season, and a solid race finish would be a good thing.

Denny Hamlin – Sunday's race in Las Vegas marked the second week in a row in which Hamlin failed to make an impression. Hamlin's Daytona win in February started his season on the perfect foot, but he has largely gone missing since. The last two finishes have both been outside of the top-15, and, to make matters worse, the No. 11 hasn't shown much speed in practice and qualifying at either circuit. Perhaps it's a case of having a post-victory hangover, but Hamlin hasn't been a great fantasy option the last two races. He has plenty of time to turn things around, but fantasy players might wish to press the pause button on Hamlin for the time being. Monitor how well he runs in practice in Phoenix, where he won in 2012, before selecting him.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Austin Dillon – A frustrating day for Dillon turned worse when he was forced to serve a drive-through penalty for speeding on pit road with just over 100 laps remaining. The penalty was Dillon's second gripe about pitting after he berated his crew on the radio for losing him spots earlier in the race. The frustration Dillon feels is born from the fact that he's becoming more competitive each week. Despite not having a top-10 at Phoenix from four career starts, his performances have been improving, and the desire to capitalize on his pace is what's driving his passion. Sunday was one of his best finishes in the series, and he may earn even more in the near future.