NASCAR Barometer: Hamlin Wins a Daytona Photo Finish

The driver who seemed to most want this year's Daytona 500 victory was Denny Hamlin. He wasn't content to just sit in line in the closing miles and made the move that would prove to be the defining moment in this year's race. Hamlin came from behind to overtake teammate Matt Kenseth and to edge Martin Truex Jr.'s No. 78 car out of the win by less than a tenth of a second. Hamlin foreshadowed his win on Sunday by lodging solid performances in each of the competitive events during 2016's Speedweeks at Daytona.

Sunday's race was a wonderful opening to the 2016 season that showcased close racing, favorites having trouble, and teammates working together to pull out the win. Martin Truex Jr. leveraged his new partnership with Joe Gibbs Racing to come home an agonizingly close runner-up, while the remainder of the JGR teammates battled one another once Dale Earnhardt Jr. was out of the mix. The race was one of the more quiet events in recent Daytona memory, but the finish ended up being the closest in history.

UPGRADE

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin seemed to have one of the only cars capable of challenging Dale Earnhardt Jr. in Sunday's Daytona 500, and he was the first one brave enough to make a move in the closing laps to unseat Matt Kenseth for the win. With that move, the No. 11 car held off Truex to give Hamlin his first Daytona 500 victory. In doing so he put one foot firmly in the 2016 Chase for the Sprint Cup. To make things even better, Hamlin won in Atlanta in 2012 and started fourth in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 last season. The new season truly begins this week, but Hamlin has practically guaranteed himself a spot in the championship chase by securing his win at Daytona.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex leveraged his new team alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing, and it paid dividends in Daytona. The No. 78 wasn't the fastest car in his duel qualifying race but was solidly in front all afternoon for Sunday's big prize. Truex seemed like he was a virtual member of JGR and that enabled him to run at the front, providing a solid start to the 2016 season. In the end, he only missed winning his first Daytona 500 by a fraction of a second to Hamlin. A braver driver may have taken the win, but second is a solid performance for Truex. Truex has never won in Atlanta, but he does have two top-fives and five top-10s from 17 starts there.

Kyle Larson – If any questions remained about Larson's ability to keep his nose clean and contend for victory in the Daytona 500 they were answered on Sunday. Larson finished seventh despite not leading any laps this weekend. The first race of his third season in the series started with a top-10 finish, and that puts him in early contention to claim a spot in this season's Chase. Larson is an early pick to be among those championship contenders, but we'll see how he performs on a 1.5-mile oval next week in Atlanta. In two Sprint Cup visits to the track his best finish is eighth. Larson is a driver to watch in 2016, and I wouldn't be surprised if he finally gets that breakthrough win.

Austin Dillon – His name may not have been called out very often during Sunday's Daytona 500, but Dillon pieced together a very good top-10 finish. His ninth-place was his fourth top-10 at the speedway and matched his best finish in the Daytona 500. Dillon displayed significant progress in 2015 and his 2016 start shows signs of him truly coming of age. Dillon ran a very mature race on Sunday and should be in line for more top finishes in 2016. His best finish in Atlanta was 19th in 2013, but I expect that he'll be able to accomplish much more in the sole visit to that track in 2016.

Kyle Busch – Though Busch wasn't the one making the move for the win on Sunday, he was in contention to win and scored a significant top-five finish. Busch hopes to successfully defend his championship this year, and he didn't start too terribly after winning his qualifying race on Thursday. Busch was a quiet runner at the top of the order on Sunday and picked up his first top-five of the season as a result of that performance. Busch has two previous wins at Atlanta Motor Speedway and should be a factor this week at the first 1.5-mile oval on the schedule. Busch has his title defense off to an excellent start in 2016.

DOWNGRADE

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt took the lead early in Sunday's Daytona 500, but it was Kyle Busch who successfully supplanted himself at the front of the field after the first caution of the race. Once he fell into the pack, the No. 88 found it much more difficult to race to the front and didn't take charge of the race again. His afternoon ended when he lost the air on his car in the final turn and spun into the inside wall. Earnhardt's only Atlanta win came in 2004, but he's only finished outside of the top 10 there once in the last four races. He's a capable driver at this week's track and may be a factor for the win again this week.

Chase Elliott – The 2016 Daytona 500 pole sitter had a respectable start in Sunday's show, but ran afoul of Daytona's infield grass. The No. 24 was running inside the top 10 when he became the second car in as many laps to lose control off of turn 4. Elliott successfully avoided all other cars as well as contact with the wall, but wasn't able to continue after the nose of his car buried itself in the infield grass. The front end damage was too much for Elliott to continue, and his first Daytona 500 as a full-time Sprint Cup driver ended in the back of the track ambulance en route to a checkup in the medical center.

Carl Edwards – Edwards wasn't able to demonstrate the speed of his teammates all week at Daytona. The No. 19 fell victim to the spinning Brian Vickers early in Sunday's race. Unfortunately, it was the No. 19 that came off worse from the incident when Edwards was turned into the outside wall. The damage to the car forced Edwards behind the competition, and the team played catch up for the rest of the afternoon. He managed to work his way back into the mix and finished fifth, but couldn't have contended with his teammates for the win. Edwards still has to make a step forward, and that step needs to come soon. He has three Atlanta wins, so that move could come as soon as this weekend.

Greg Biffle – After running inside the top 10 for much of Sunday's Daytona 500, Biffle lost a right-rear tire that forced him to pit road. The incident brought out a caution period and put Biffle well behind the competition. It was disappointing for the Roush Fenway Racing driver who has finally reeled in the competition and could be within the top runners. Biffle had high hopes for Sunday, but those hopes never panned out. He'll have to wait until next week in Atlanta to try again. He hasn't won at the Georgia oval but does have 10 top-10 finishes from 21 starts. If Ford and Roush have improved over the winter we will see just how much this week.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Regan Smith – While I wasn't surprised by Smith's top-10 finish on Sunday, many others may be. The No. 7 finished eighth in Sunday's Daytona 500 in what was a confident showing from the driver and his new team. Smith didn't lead any laps, but he started 27th and worked his way forward to a top-10 finish with an overheating car. It was a mature performance from a team punching above their weight. All that may change this week, though. In seven Atlanta starts Smith has never finished inside the top 10 and has a best finish of 14th in 2010. While not every week will be one to take Smith, last week would have been one of them.