This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
NASCAR's desert oval was plagued by rain during Sunday's Quicken Loans Race for Heros 500, but it was Dale Earnhardt Jr. who was dancing in Victory Lane when the race was called. Downpours at Phoenix International Raceway delayed the start of Sunday's race by nearly seven hours and then ended the contest almost 100 laps short of the scheduled distance. Earnhardt benefited by pitting a lap earlier than Kevin Harvick--who had dominated the running–to be named the leader as the skies opened up.
The Chase for the Sprint Cup has been an unpredictable one in many ways this season, and Phoenix's rain set the final four drivers to face off this week in Homestead in equally unlikely fashion. The four still alive to fight for the title are Jeff Gordon (winner at Martinsville Speedway), Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr., all of whom are worthy title challengers. Just one race remains.
UPGRADE
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt had consistent top speeds throughout the weekend in Phoenix and started in third position. He only led 22 laps, but they included the right ones as rain began to fall late in the night. His victory Sunday night was his third at the track and fourth top 10 in the last four races. The Hendrick Motorsports team has plenty of momentum with Jimmie Johnson, Gordon and now Earnhardt all visiting Victory Lane in the last three races. The buoyancy could be a good omen for Gordon, who might have help from
NASCAR's desert oval was plagued by rain during Sunday's Quicken Loans Race for Heros 500, but it was Dale Earnhardt Jr. who was dancing in Victory Lane when the race was called. Downpours at Phoenix International Raceway delayed the start of Sunday's race by nearly seven hours and then ended the contest almost 100 laps short of the scheduled distance. Earnhardt benefited by pitting a lap earlier than Kevin Harvick--who had dominated the running–to be named the leader as the skies opened up.
The Chase for the Sprint Cup has been an unpredictable one in many ways this season, and Phoenix's rain set the final four drivers to face off this week in Homestead in equally unlikely fashion. The four still alive to fight for the title are Jeff Gordon (winner at Martinsville Speedway), Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr., all of whom are worthy title challengers. Just one race remains.
UPGRADE
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt had consistent top speeds throughout the weekend in Phoenix and started in third position. He only led 22 laps, but they included the right ones as rain began to fall late in the night. His victory Sunday night was his third at the track and fourth top 10 in the last four races. The Hendrick Motorsports team has plenty of momentum with Jimmie Johnson, Gordon and now Earnhardt all visiting Victory Lane in the last three races. The buoyancy could be a good omen for Gordon, who might have help from friends at the front of the field in Homestead. Earnhardt has never won at the Florida oval but has finished inside the top 15 in the last four events there.
Jeff Gordon – Gordon will arrive at Homestead-Miami Speedway as the only driver to advance to the championship finale via winning in the Eliminator Round of the Chase. His Phoenix finish of sixth was his sixth consecutive top 10, and helps him to the joint-best average finish in the last five races among the four championship contenders. Gordon's season is peaking after a difficult start to 2015, and his career comes to an end with one final shot at a fifth championship. He took victory at Homestead in 2012 and hasn't finished worse than 11th in the last four there. He could be a serious threat for the title with teammates supporting him this week.
Kevin Harvick – The Phoenix dominator wasn't able to pick up an eighth win at the track last week, but finishing second and leading the most laps shows he hasn't lost his edge. Circumstances conspired against the No. 4 driving into Victory Lane in the desert, but his result was enough to see him through to the championship finale. It's arguably a bittersweet result for the defending champion after leading 143 laps, but the bigger prize remains the Sprint Cup. Harvick has a fantastic Homestead record with consecutive top-10 finishes stretching back to 2008. He won the race and the title there last season, and will try to repeat that success on Sunday.
Kyle Busch – In one of the biggest surprises of the 2015 season, Busch overcame a serious injury that ruled him out of the first part of the season to climb into the top 35 in points, score four wins and earn himself a spot in the Chase. He survived each round of the Chase, and now is a contender to claim his first Sprint Cup. Busch stands shoulder to shoulder with Gordon as the drivers with the best average finish in the last five races, and his tenacity could be a virtue in this week's winner-take-all format. Busch has never won at Homestead but did lead 191 laps en route to a fourth-place finish there in 2012. He has two top-10 finishes in the last three races at the track.
Martin Truex Jr. – Truex's 14 top-10 finishes from the first 15 races of the season are the hallmark of what has been a career year for the Furniture Row Racing driver. His win at Pocono Raceway granted him entry into the Chase, and he has proven to be a survivor in the format. He joins Busch as the two drivers hoping to capture their first Sprint Cup. His results throughout 2015 have been a significant turn from his early career results, but he also doesn't have a terrible Homestead resume. His average finish at the track is 10th, and he has only finished outside of the top 10 there twice in 10 starts. Truex also has three top-10 finishes in the last five races.
DOWNGRADE
Joey Logano – A third-place finish in Sunday's race wasn't enough for Logano to remain in the championship hunt. His run in with Matt Kenseth in Martinsville started his derailment, and his tire failure at Texas put the nail in the coffin. His Phoenix finish represented a top effort from the team that struggled for speed most of the week and tied his best-ever finish in the desert. Unfortunately, the prior two results meant he needed to win. That didn't happen, and he's now 15 points behind Carl Edwards for a fifth-place finish. It might be difficult for him to overcome that gap this week with an average Homestead finish of 20th from six career starts.
Kurt Busch – Busch's pace in Phoenix practice and qualifying didn't guarantee him a finish good enough to remain in Chase contention on Sunday. The former champion was pacey all weekend, and finished seventh when the rains came. The season should still go in the record books as a good one for Busch. He missed the opening rounds of the season but remained in the title hunt all the way to the final race. He shouldn't be counted out this week just because he's out of the Chase. He won from pole at the track in 2002, but has just one top-10 finish in the last four races. He could still present a decent fantasy option this week.
Brad Keselowski – Keselowski's ninth-place finish in Phoenix was a respectable result given his lack of pace throughout the weekend. The Penske Racing Fords struggled to match the speed of the Chevrolets throughout the weekend, with Keselowski trailing teammate Logano. When the race finally got underway, though, Keselowski worked his way into the lead for four laps and brought home another top 10. It wasn't enough to keep his championship fight alive, but it was an out-performance from both cars in the Penske garage. The team's lack of pace raises fantasy questions for Homestead, though. Keselowski does have four consecutive top 10s there, but has the team lost the edge it had just a few weeks ago?
Sam Hornish Jr. – This season was a bust for Hornish. The driver made his return to the series in the No. 9 car, but learned he wouldn't be returning to the seat in 2016. He picked up just three top-10 finishes in 35 races, with the last one coming in August at Watkins Glen. News broke that he would be out of the team prior to Sunday's race, but the decision was bolstered by another lackluster weekend. He qualified 28th and finished 31st. This team had three top fives and seven top 10s in 2014. Hornish may be racing his final Sprint Cup race this weekend at Homestead where he has a best finish of 21st.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Aric Almirola – Those paying attention would have had Almirola on their radars all season. He has had some strong and consistent strings of results after making a Chase appearance last season and shouldn't be counted out in 2016. He had never scored a top 10 at Phoenix in nine attempts but landed one last week. The top 10 was his sixth of the season, and highlights the fact that he can be a reliable fantasy play most weeks. His best Homestead finish was fourth in 2010, and he has been a fixture in the top 20 there since 2010. Almirola's average finish in the last seven races is 14.1, making him a confident third or fourth driver in fantasy leagues.
