NASCAR Barometer: Jimmie Johnson Is Bigger in Texas

Jimmie Johnson became the first non-Chase driver to win a Chase race in 2015 by snatching a victory out from under Brad Keselowski's nose on Sunday at the AAA Texas 500. Keselowski dominated Sunday's race, except for the final miles. The No. 2 car was the fastest in practice and qualified on pole. He led more than 300 laps, only to lose in the final laps to the charging Johnson. The No. 48 may have helped his teammate Jeff Gordon in his upcoming championship effort in Miami by stealing Keselowski's victory, but it was a definitive battle between the two fastest cars at the track all weekend.

Sunday's win was Johnson's third-consecutive victory at Texas Motor Speedway and his fourth in the last five. He's no longer in the Chase for the Sprint Cup but still stamped his mark among the top drivers in the series again Sunday by claiming the trophy. With only teammate Jeff Gordon locked in as one of the final four drivers eligible to win the Chase, Johnson ensured there would be plenty of tension next week at Phoenix International Raceway. The remaining three championship spots will be claimed in the next week. Joey Logano is in a dire position and needs to win at Phoenix after two poor races in this elimination round.

UPGRADE

Jimmie Johnson – The most dominant driver in recent history at Texas has been Johnson. He qualified inside the top 10 again on Sunday and avoided the trouble that plagued many of the contenders. He was the fastest car in the final miles and just edged Keselowski to take the win and prohibit him from joining teammate Joey Logano in the championship fight in Miami. Johnson's championship hopes are gone this season, but Keselowski still has one chance remaining to join the final four. Johnson has four Phoenix wins and missed the top 10 in the last two, but still could be a top challenger next week, too.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski paced practice at Texas and also qualified on pole for Sunday's race. The Penske driver jumped out to an early lead after the green flag and avoided the early tire troubles that plagued much of the field. He dominated the majority of race, leading more than 300 laps, but didn't have enough speed to hold off Johnson –who had the fastest car on the track – in the closing laps. Keselowski has never won at Phoenix, but hasn't finished worse than 11th in any of the last seven races in the desert. This will be his final shot to join teammate Logano for a chance to claim his second Sprint Cup championship.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick was the second major player to have right-rear tire trouble on Sunday. The No. 4 didn't suffer as much damage to his car as the No. 22, but the failure still put the defending champion behind the competition for the rest of the afternoon. That wasn't Harvick's only problem on the day, either. To demonstrate how strong the No. 4 was, he still managed to finish third despite all of his trouble. However, by virtue of Phoenix being the next race on the schedule, Harvick gets an automatic upgrade for fantasy rosters. He's won the last four races at the track and five of the last six. There's no better driver at Phoenix and he should be the favorite next week.

Martin Truex Jr. – Despite not having the best qualifying effort, Truex put his machine solidly into the top 10 at Texas. He didn't have the pace of the top contenders, but still managed to put the pieces together in Sunday's race. He finished eighth to land his fourth top-10 finish in the last five races and lives to fight for a spot in the final four championship contenders in Miami. Truex has raced better in 2015 than ever before, and his solid run Sunday puts him in prime position to qualify for the championship fight in Miami. Truex has never won in Phoenix but has two top-10 finishes in his last four visits to the track.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.– Earnhardt was one of the many drivers for whom Sunday afternoon was long. The Hendrick driver was already behind the rest of the field early, only to be hit in the rear and spin again about midway through the distance on Sunday. Despite all of the drama, the No. 88 was one of the fastest cars on the track. He worked his way through the field multiple times and was running in sixth position at the finish after numerous troubles. Earnhardt has two Phoenix wins but finished dead last there earlier this spring. He was on a string of four consecutive top-10 finishes prior to that misstep. If he has the pace he had Sunday, but without the issues, he'll be hard to beat.

DOWNGRADE

Joey Logano – After crashing at Martinsville, Logano was the first driver to have trouble in Texas. Unfortunately for the No. 22, it was a huge issue that took him completely out of contention for the afternoon. The rear tire failure destroyed the left rear of the car and forced him to the garage to make extensive repairs. The damage wasn't good news at a high-speed track that favors an unblemished car. Logano was too far behind when the car returned to the track and he finished 40th. Logano now faces a must-win scenario to keep his championship hopes alive at Phoenix, where his best finish is third. His average finish at the Southwestern track is 14.5.

Kyle Larson – Larson was one of the many victims of flat left-rear tires. The sophomore driver suffered his tire damage right around the 100-lap mark, which demoted him to the outside of the top 20 runners. The damage ruined his afternoon and precluded any hopes of a decent finish. By the time 500 miles were complete, he scored in the 37th position, which wasn't representative of his speed on the week or what he was able to at these types of tracks last season. In three visits to Phoenix Larson has one top 10, which came earlier this season. This season, Larson has struggled to achieve the heights of his rookie year in the Sprint Cup and will hope to improve next season.

Ryan Newman – Newman was another driver who suffered a left rear tire failure in Sunday's race. He wasn't able to fully recover and finished 22nd in what was a terrible outing for the team. This was his worst finish in the last five races and extends his string of disappointments, after such a strong and consistent 2014. There are still two more races in the season, though. Newman won at Phoenix in 2010 and also has no finishes worse than 11th in the last four races at the track. Next week could be one where Newman outperforms his 2015 statistics, but a win would come as a surprise given his current momentum.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been one of the top drivers in recent races but wasn't able to continue that through Texas. The No. 11 car was knocked out of the Chase in the last round of eliminations but continues to be competitive. He started inside the top 10 at Texas but struggled throughout the day and finished a disappointing 38th, which was as bad as his Talladega finish and was what ultimately eliminated him from the championship fight. Phoenix hasn't been as kind to Hamlin recently as it was at the start of his career. He's been having an up and down season and may be losing some of the strengths he discovered as the Chase began.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Erik Jones – Jones was drafted to drive the No. 20 late in the week when Matt Kenseth's penalty appeals were rejected. He won the Camping World Truck Series race on Friday and also competed in the Xfinity series race on Saturday. His pace in Kenseth's car on Sunday was remarkable through practice and he was a fixture in the top 15 until late trouble thwarted his effort. Despite the problems, he still tallied a top-15 performance in a race in which he never expected to run. Jones' Sprint Cup career is in its infancy, but his performance on Sunday shows that there's a lot more to come from this young driver. He's one to pay attention to in the coming seasons.