Hollywood Casino 400 Preview: Chase for the Cup Intensifies

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

This week the second round in the Chase for the Cup will pick up the intensity. For the 12 drivers remaining in the playoff field the pressure continues to increase and so do the stakes. This Sunday we travel to Kansas Speedway and take the next steps in determining this season's champion. This is the first racing in the second round and the kickoff to the Round of 12 in the Chase. Getting off on the right foot in this next leg of the playoffs is very important and we expect the racing urgency will reflect it.

For this fourth race in the Chase for the NASCAR Cup, the series pays its second visit of the season to Kansas Speedway just outside Kansas City for the Hollywood Casino 400. When we think of the Kansas oval we think of the many intermediate ovals on the circuit.  This oval may not be exactly like Charlotte, Texas or Atlanta, but it could easily be the most important oval regarding the Chase for the NASCAR Cup Series championship by the time we reach Phoenix in November. As we visit the 1.5-mile oval in Kansas this weekend the schedule offers up a huge advantage to fantasy racing players and the drivers alike, as it was only just May of this year that the stars of NASCAR were locked in combat at this intermediate oval. The data from that race, the Advent Health 400, will be fresh and applicable to the field for this weekend's Hollywood Casino 400. 

Since we're making our second visit of the season to Kansas Speedway, we need to take a brief look back at history at this intermediate oval. These numbers will be even more important than normal and even more relevant given that we've seen a lot of repeat winners at this facility. As you'll see in the table below, some of the hottest drivers in the series are making a very important start at Kansas Speedway this weekend. Here are the loop stats for the last 32 races at Kansas Speedway.

The race earlier this year at Kansas Speedway was very entertaining. Kyle Larson would pass Chris Buescher in overtime to grab his second-career victory at the facility and Chevrolet's first win in the last five Kansas races. Considering what Larson accomplished at Bristol this past Saturday night, we could see a sequel to what happened earlier this season at the Kansas oval. Denny Hamlin and Ross Chastain also had a strong presence at the front in the Advent Health 400. The current streaking drivers and strong performers at Kansas Speedway appear to be a diverging group this weekend. However, with the playoffs now well underway there will be many suitors for victory lane at Kansas and grabbing that valuable spot in the next round of the Chase for the Cup. 

Despite his four victories, Larson has been an uneven performer at times this season and he didn't start the playoffs well with troubles at Atlanta Motor Speedway a couple weeks ago. He's looking to right the ship for a push deeper into the playoffs and a strong claim to this season's championship. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet is coming back to Kansas Speedway at the right time seeking redemption and rejuvenation. For a handful of other hopefuls, it's another opportunity to win this weekend and keep their championship hopes alive or build momentum for next season. With championship implications weighing heavily, we expect to see some real urgency in the racing, and some rebound performances for drivers that got roughed up in the frantic racing at Bristol Motor Speedway this past weekend. We'll highlight the drivers you need this Sunday afternoon and the ones you need to avoid in order to dominate the day at Kansas Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson completely dominated last week at Bristol and that's an ominous sign for the playoff field of drivers. The Hendrick Motorsports star earned his automatic berth into the Round of 12, but that won't slow him down at Kansas Speedway. Larson has been zeroed-in on this track in recent visits. He has won or finished runner-up in four of the last six Kansas Speedway events and he's led a combined 247 laps in his last three races at this intermediate oval. Larson's start here in May of this year yielded a fourth-place qualifying effort, 63 laps led and his second-career Kansas victory in the Advent Health 400. With major stakes on the line, Larson should be a top contender to win the Hollywood Casino 400.     

Chris Buescher – Buescher has never been a top performer at Kansas Speedway, but he flirted with his first-career victory at the track in this May's Advent Health 400. He led 53 laps and was in great position late before Kyle Larson foiled his win in overtime. That runner-up finish was just Buescher's fourth Top 10 in 17 starts at Kanas Speedway. However, we believe what the Roush Fenway Keselowski No. 17 Ford team learned in that performance largely trumps Buscher's career resume at this mid-sized oval. The veteran driver is not a part of the playoff scramble this weekend, so Buescher is a bit of a spoiler in that sense. However, don't underestimate this driver and team's ability to mix it up at the front and battle for the win at Kansas.        

Denny Hamlin – After an inconsistent season, Hamlin appears to be getting his act together as we head deeper into the playoffs. The Joe Gibbs Racing star did just enough to pass into the Round of 12 of the Chase at Bristol last weekend. Hamlin is the active wins leader at Kansas with 4 total and he also has well over 500 laps led at this facility, much of which has come since the 2019 season. His career totals and averages aren't the greatest and they may cause some to pass on Hamlin this weekend, but that would be a mistake. Much of Hamlin's success at Kansas Speedway has come in just the last five seasons. He rides a strong six-race Kansas Top-5 streak into Sunday's action. Make no mistake, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota will factor in the outcome Sunday afternoon at Kansas.

Christopher Bell – Bell has never won at Kansas Speedway, but he's been inching ever closer with each visit. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has won three of the last five pole positions at the mid-sized oval, including the last two poles in-a-row. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has led 72 combined laps for his career at Kansas and claimed six Top-10 finishes in those nine starts (67-percent). In May's Advent Health 400, Bell piloted the team's Toyota to a strong sixth-place finish from the pole position. With the playoffs well underway and advancement into the Round of 8 on the line, we expect the best out of this driver and team. This could be the weekend where Bell breaks through for his first Kansas win.     

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – Elliott has been one of the more consistent intermediate oval performers of 2024. He grabbed a win at Fort Worth and has four Top 10's in six starts for a strong 7.7 average finish on the cookie cutter tracks this season. Elliott is a one-time Kansas winner and he's finished runner-up here on two occasions. Expecting a visit to victory lane in Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400 may be a bit of a stretch right now for the No. 9 Chevrolet team, but Elliott's 65-percent Top-10 rate at this oval is a good statistic to focus on heading into Sunday's 400-mile playoff battle. He rides a three-race Kansas Top-10 streak into this important playoff race.

Kyle Busch – Despite not being a part of this season's playoffs, we believe this veteran driver brings some fantasy racing value to the table this Sunday. Busch is a two-time Kansas winner and he's led well over 400 laps for his career at this 1.5-mile oval. His 16-career Top-10 finishes at the oval work out to a reasonable 49-percent rate. Busch does have better mid-sized ovals in his resume, but he's good enough here to post a Top-10 finish most starts. He rides a two-race Kansas Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. Despite all Busch's inconsistencies this season, let's not overlook that he's been a 67-percent Top-10 finisher on the intermediate ovals in 2024. That includes Busch's eighth-place finish in May's Advent Health 400.

Ross Chastain – Chastain was ice cold leading up to the Chase for the Cup playoffs, but he has racked up two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in the last four events. Now he'll look to build on that momentum with a good performance in the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas. You're going to have to set aside career performance at this track (27-percent Top-10 rate) and focus strictly on recent outings. Chastain Three Top-10 finishes in his last five Kansas starts (60-percent) into Sunday's action and his 10.2 average finish across that span is hard to ignore. Intermediate ovals have been rewarding tracks this season for this driver and team with a steady 50-percent Top-10 rate in 2024. Chastain should be a good performer in the Hollywood Casino 400.

Alex Bowman – Bowman is well positioned in this season's championship battle and is in good shape coming to Kansas Speedway this weekend. The veteran driver rides a three-race intermediate oval Top-10 streak into Sunday and that includes his steady seventh-place finish at Kansas back in May. Bowman has 17-career Cup Series starts at this 1.5-mile oval and he's fetched nine Top 10's for a steady 52-percent rate. The Hendrick Motorsports star rides a four-race Kansas Top-10 streak into this important playoff race and that's a big confidence booster. Bowman should be a face among the Top 10 in Sunday's 400-mile playoff battle.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Kansas & solid upside

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski didn't advance into the Round of 12 of the Chase, but that shouldn't temper our expectations for the owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford. Intermediate ovals have been dependable for Keselowski this season with a pair of runner-up finishes at Fort Worth and Charlotte and steady 13.3 average finish. As it relates to Kansas Speedway, Keselowski has two victories and 14 Top-10 finishes (48-percent) to go along with 351 laps led for his career at this intermediate oval. He's finished ninth- and 11th-place in his last two Kansas outings and has a good handle on this mid-sized oval. He should challenge the Top 10 and certainly crack the Top 15 this Sunday afternoon.  

Tyler Reddick – Reddick has had a couple tough races on the Glen and Bristol coming into Kansas Speedway this weekend. He should rebound though with a return to intermediate ovals. The 23XI Racing youngster is participating in the Chase for the Cup playoffs and racing with urgency as we drive deeper into the playoffs. Reddick now has 10-career Cup Series starts at the Kansas oval with one win (this event last season) and four Top 10's in those efforts. His No. 45 Toyota was strong here in this event one year ago, capturing the victory. Reddick has been cracking the Top 10 on 1.5-mile ovals at a blistering 67-percent this season and strong 11.0 average finish.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star was on the struggle bus at Bristol last week, but his last look at a mid-sized oval paid off spectacularly with a win a few weeks ago at Atlanta. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has three-career victories at Kansas Speedway and over 500 laps led. His 40-percent Top-10 rate here is a bit disappointing, but Logano knows how to race up front here and win. Intermediate ovals in general have been similar for Logano in 2024. He has one win, but only two Top-10 finishes (33-percent) on the mid-sized ovals this season. The way the No. 22 Ford team is running right now, you want to give careful consideration to Logano in your fantasy lineups this Sunday afternoon.  

Bubba Wallace – Wallace makes an intriguing fantasy racing play this Sunday in the Hollywood Casino 400. The 23XI Racing veteran led 58 laps and won this event two years ago in convincing fashion. Wallace has 13-career Cup Series starts at the Kansas oval and only three Top-10 finishes. Interestingly though, all three of those Top 10's has come since 2022 at Kansas Speedway. Wallace has seemingly figured something out about this track that he didn't used to know. That valuable experience coupled with his recent performance on intermediate tracks should be enough to power Wallace towards another Top-10 run at Kanas Speedway.  

Daniel Suarez – With a win early in the season at Atlanta, Top-5 at Texas and follow-up second-place finish at Atlanta a few weeks ago, Suarez has been a surprise performer on the mid-sized ovals this season. The average finish is checking in at a strong 11.7 across all six races on the 1.5-mile ovals. Kansas Speedway has held some modest success for the driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet over the years. However, more recent starts have yielded one Top 10 and four Top 15's in his last seven starts. This is not an oval where Suarez is likely to steal a victory, but rather more likely to qualify well and battle it out to a Top-15 finish. He's a reliable fantasy play with some upside in the Hollywood Casino 400.

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing youngster has historically struggled at this intermediate oval. Kanas Speedway has only yielded seven Top 10's to Blaney in 19 starts (37-percent) and he's only cracked the Top 10 once in his last four visits to the Kansas track. Blaney's performance on 1.5-mile ovals in general this season has been inconsistent but still managing a 50-percent Top-10 rate. This is why we've slotted him deep in the sleepers list this week. With the playoffs underway we're going to take a more optimistic footing on Blaney and the No. 12 Ford team. They should gut it out and do whatever it takes to press for a Top 10. His last four results at Kansas Speedway are reasonable ninth-, 16th-, 12th- and 12th-place finishes. Not stellar by any stretch, but competitive. We're counting on playoff urgency to spur this driver and team to a better finish this Sunday.    

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is coming off a disappointing 24th-place finish at Bristol and elimination from the Chase playoffs. With a return to Kansas Speedway, we would normally expect Truex to step back into the spotlight. However, the last several weeks have been very disappointing for the No. 19 Toyota team. Truex is a two-time Kansas winner with over 900 laps led and his 18 Top-10 finishes register a strong 56-percent Top-10 rate and 12.6 average finish. Still, the veteran driver has had his struggles on the intermediate ovals this season (33-percent Top-10 rate). Mired in a deep slump entering Kansas Speedway gives us pause about any fantasy racing aspirations for Truex.   

Ty Gibbs – Intermediate ovals have been an inconsistent affair for the driver of the No. 54 Toyota. Gibbs has struggled at Fort Worth, Kansas and Atlanta. Kansas Speedway has been a track of limited success for him since elevating to NASCAR's top division with just one Top 15 in four-career starts (25-percent) and a poor 28.5 average finish. Gibbs qualified a strong sixth-place in May of this year at Kansas Speedway but would end up laboring to a disappointing 32nd-place finish. That's not exactly a vote of confidence as the series returns to the Kansas oval. It would seem there are better fantasy options in the mid-field of drivers this week for the Hollywood Casino 400. 

Austin Cindric – Six-career starts at Kansas Speedway have only yielded a pair of Top-15 finishes for the Penske Racing driver and an inflated 24.0 average finish. Cindric hasn't cracked the Top 30 in his last three starts at the Kansas track and that's quite concerning heading into Sunday's action. The driver of the No. 2 Ford has been inconsistent all season on the mid-sized ovals. Cindric has two Top-10 finishes (33-percent) and an average finish of 20.8 on these size ovals while three of his starts on these ovals have resulted in finishes outside the Top 20. The data points don't lie and they're very concerning heading into Kansas Speedway.            

William Byron – The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has gone cold at the wrong time of the season. Byron has just one Top-10 finish in his last five starts and is coming off a lackluster 17th-place finish at Bristol this past weekend. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has been pretty consistent on the intermediate ovals this season (67-percent Top-10 rate), however, he really struggled at Kansas Speedway earlier this season. Byron labored to a distant 23rd-place finish in the Advent Heath 400. That mirrors his recent struggles at this facility. Byron has 15th- and 23rd-place finishes in his last two Kansas Speedway starts, with a conspicuous lack of laps led. He's one of the "A" tier drivers to pass on this weekend in this important playoff race.