GEICO 500 Preview: Superspeedway Battle

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

Talladega Superspeedway is up next in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. The enormous tri-oval in Talladega, Alabama is the largest track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, measuring an amazing 2.66 miles in length, and stunning 33 degree banking in the turns. The track's size and banking make it a wide-open, four-wide, heart-pounding racing experience where speeds are high and margin for error is small. This will be a big departure from the recent short track stint in the schedule, and with it a change of faces at the top of our driver recommendations.    

This weekends, action will be similar to what we witnessed in the season-opening Daytona 500 were heavy packs that would eventually spread out into double lines or multiple packs over long green-flag runs. With the ability to race to the back or the front very quickly, moving through traffic presented little problem. The 41 lead changes during the Great American Race were way up and the second highest total we've seen at the Daytona oval in the past three seasons. The Daytona 500 also saw the return of the multi-car crashes. There were three caution periods due to accidents involving multiple cars, with two of the incidents being particularly large with many cars involved. With the return of the "big one" or "big ones" we may see some form of return to the sandbagging at the back. Despite the stage racing point system, some drivers might feel better about staying out of the wrecks and being around at the end to contend for the win. The 10 cars that DNF'd in the season-opener will make some drivers think twice about spending too much time in the eye of the storm.

The art of superspeedway racing hasn't changed despite all the rules and car changes over the past few seasons. Once again, winning on these superspeedways has been reduced to the lowest common denominator, which is when to make your move and who to do it with. As we saw in February, William Byron's late charge to the front and holding off several competitors during the last-lap crash/caution/finish, it's all about timing often times in these superspeedway races. We expect to see a similar racing style prevail at Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, but hopefully without some of the nasty crashes we witnessed in the season-opening Daytona 500. 

Speaking of the race earlier this season at Daytona, we can rely on those results to some extent in looking at the GEICO 500 this weekend. The cars that were strong at Daytona in February will likely be the same to run up front on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway. You can only put so much faith in historical stats and strong cars. At the end of the day, the driver that keeps all the doors and tires on his car and finishes the race is as good as gold. As far as historical data is concerned, we have every race since 2005 of Talladega electronic scoring to rely on for our fantasy racing picks this week. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 38 races at Talladega Superspeedway.

What used to be a solidly Chevrolet track has been tilted in another direction in recent races. The bowtie brand had swept three in-a-row at Talladega between spring of 2022 and spring of 2023 until last fall's YellaWood 500. Ryan Blaney would march to victory in that race and put Ford back in winner's circle here for the first time since 2020. That would be Blaney's third-career win at the Alabama speedway. In this event one year ago, it would be Kyle Busch's overtime, last-lap pass of Bubba Wallace that would set him up with his second-career Talladega victory. That was one of three victories last season for the two-time Cup Series champion, but surely not the last we'll see the No. 8 Chevrolet in victory lane. With Ford having ended Chevrolet's mini-run of dominance at Talladega Superspeedway last October, a lot of eyes will be on Blaney and his teammates at the blue oval brand as the look to keep control of this huge track.

Given what we saw in the Daytona 500 earlier this season, Ford dominance will be in question this weekend. William Byron would nab the win for Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports. Ford drivers would be completely shut out of the Top 5 as Toyota and Chevrolet drivers would take all those spots. Despite Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney leading a combined 57 laps in that event, both would be rolled up in late-race crashes and taken out of contention. Toyota's best hopes likely ride with Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell this weekend. The duo has been that brand's best performing drivers on superspeedway tracks the last couple seasons. Talladega races always hold plenty of thrills as well as surprises. We'll take an in-depth look at past history at Talladega and recent trends on superspeedway ovals and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing leagues this Sunday afternoon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – The three-time Talladega winner will likely be the driver to beat this weekend. Blaney won at this oval back-to-back in the fall of 2019 and spring of 2020. He's now led well over 280 laps in his career at this huge facility. In his last three starts at Talladega Superspeedway, Blaney has won and finished runner-up twice. That's a remarkable level of performance given how uncertain this style of racing can be at times. In last October's YellaWood 500, the driver of the No. 12 Ford Mustang unseated Kevin Harvick from the lead late in that race and held off William Byron by the narrowest of margins to grab that win. That just further underscores Blaney's ability in superspeedway racing. He'll be one of the top contenders in Sunday's 500-mile Talladega battle.

William Byron – This season's Daytona 500 winner has won and finished runner-up in his last two superspeedway races. The No. 24 Chevrolet team appears to be in the groove and fast on these tracks. Byron led 12 laps and finished runner-up to Ryan Blaney is last October's YellaWood 500 before he would go onto win in February at Daytona. For his next act, a first-career win at Talladega Superspeedway could be the encore. Byron has never won at this 2.66-mile tri-oval, but he has finished runner-up twice here since 2021. In that span he's led a combined 64 laps at the huge Alabama track. We expect a good qualifying effort from this driver and team and an even better race performance. If things fall his way in the luck column, Byron could walk away a first-time winner at Talladega.

Joey Logano – Logano is a three-time winner at Talladega Superspeedway, with all three victories coming since the 2015 season. He's led over 450 combined laps at this speedway for his career, making Talladega his favorite of the two superspeedway tracks.  Logano's last start on a superspeedway oval was his pole position and dominant 45 laps led in the Daytona 400. However, a multi-car crash would take him out of contention late in that event. That same speed and performance should be unloaded off the hauler this weekend in Alabama. The Penske Racing star cracks the Top 5 at Talladega at an impressive 30-percent rate, so he's almost always racing among the leaders at crunch time in this 500-mile race. Logano will be a strong contender to take home a fourth Talladega trophy this Sunday afternoon.

Brad Keselowski – The six-time Talladega winner has a real expertise at superspeedway racing. Keselowski's victory and runner-up finish at this facility in 2021 illustrate his capability of pack racing at Talladega. The veteran driver is coming off a strong runner-up performance this past Sunday in Texas and riding that momentum into Alabama this week. Two of his last four starts on superspeedway tracks have netted Top-5 finishes, so he's been battling among the leaders in these recent big oval races. Keselowski's 300+ career laps led at Talladega Superspeedway and his 47-percent Top-10 rate at this oval speak for themselves. He loves this Alabama track and is always a threat to win here.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is one of the better Toyota drivers when it comes to superspeedway racing, and he certainly has the resume to back that up. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time winner at this facility and he's sat on the pole here in four of the last seven Talladega races. With a Top-10 percentage near 45-percent at Talladega Superspeedway, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota is above average on cracking the Top 10 here. Three of his last five trips to the Alabama oval have netted Top 10's and his last appearance at the track netted a strong third-place finish in last October's YellaWood 500. This driver and team are a pretty safe bet here this weekend and carry a lot of upside as well.      

Kyle Busch – At best Busch has had uneven luck with superspeedway racing over the years. With two wins, and 27-percent Top-10 rate at Talladega, he's shown he can get to victory lane, but he can also struggle to consistently find the Top 10. However, since his move to Richard Childress Racing in 2023, the two-time champion has found his groove on the big ovals. Since moving to the No. 8 Chevrolet, Busch has one win, two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes on the superspeedway tracks. The average finish is coming in around a surprising 12.8 for the veteran. He marched to victory in this event one year ago, and he also flexed and led laps in the season-opener at Daytona. Busch is a sneaky good choice for the GEICO 500.

Chase Elliott – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is coming off a huge win at Texas this past week and looking to keep it going with a good performance in the GEICO 500. Elliott is a two-time Talladega winner, and his eight-career Top-10 finishes here check in at a very reassuring 50-percent rate. As he's demonstrated over the past two seasons of superspeedway events (22-percent Top-5 and 56-percent Top-10 rates, including one win) that he's always a threat to be racing among the leaders at the end of these high-risk events. Elliott had a fast Chevrolet in the season-opening Daytona 500 and led 13 laps, but was shuffled out of the leaders late and finished 14th-place. He'll hope for better luck this weekend, and with his history in this style of racing, don't count him out of visiting victory lane.            

Austin Cindric – The 2022 Daytona 500 winner has continued to build on the superspeedway excellence of the No. 2 Ford team that we saw with its previous driver, Brad Keselowski. Since that win, Cindric has driven to two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes on the superspeedway circuit. His last outing at Talladega netted 15 laps led and an impressive fifth-place finish in last October's YellaWood 500. Cindric now has two Top-10 finishes in his four-career Talladega starts for a steady 15.3 average finish. In the Daytona 500 to start this season, he qualified a strong sixth-place and led 13 laps before getting entangled in a late-race crash and finishing mid-pack. The Penske Racing youngster has the experience and skill in this style of racing to post a good finish at Talladega.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Talladega & solid upside

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran grabbed our eye with what he accomplished on the superspeedway ovals last season. Buescher grabbed the win in the summer Daytona race and he collected three Top-5 finishes in the four superspeedway events of 2023. He is prone to have the occasional disappearing act on these big ovals, but possesses the ability to grab Top-5 finishes when everything works out. That makes Buescher a good deep-tier driver consideration this Sunday. He hast just three-career Talladega Top-10 finishes, but all have come since the 2020 season. Just another piece of evidence demonstrating how this veteran driver has improved very recently in this style of racing.

Christopher Bell – Bell has demonstrated good speed in these big oval events since the new generation car was launched. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has won two pole positions, led 51 laps and collected two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in that span. Perhaps his best performance of the lot came earlier this year in the Daytona 500. Bell qualified on the second row, led 22 laps and finished an impressive third-place in the Great American Race. He was a Top-15 finisher last October in his last start at Talladega Superspeedway. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has eighth- and 14th-place finishes in his last two Talladega starts. We expect this driver and team to be Top-10 challengers in Sunday's GEICO 500.   

Alex Bowman – While Bowman has been an on-again off-again type of performer at Talladega Superspeedway (25-percent Top-10 rate and 23.9 average finish), he has experienced a surge in performance since the Cup Series moved to the new generation stock car a couple seasons ago. Bowman has two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his last nine superspeedway starts along with 44 laps led for a strong 12.6 average finish between Daytona and Talladega. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet opened the season with a very strong performance in the Daytona 500. Bowman qualified seventh on the grid and came home an impressive runner-up in the Great American Race. We can't wait to see what he does for a follow up this weekend at Talladega.        

Daniel Suarez – We don't typically think of Suarez when it comes to superspeedway racing, but he's been changing the way we think of him the past year. The driver of the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet has grabbed four Top-10 finishes in his last six starts between Daytona and Talladega. Suarez has been on a roll at Talladega Superspeedway during this time and rides a three-race Talladega Top-10 streak into Sunday's GEICO 500. Trackhouse Racing has been giving the veteran driver fast cars on these huge ovals and he's not been disappointing in the least. Given what he's accomplished over the last year on these big ovals, we can't wait to see what Suarez does this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway.

Corey Lajoie – Each time we visit these big superspeedway ovals, we're challenged not to think of Lajoie and his Spire Motorsports team. The small outfit has one big thing they do well and that's superspeedway racing. Lajoie owns nine-career Top-10 finishes and seven of them have come on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega. In fact, the driver of the No. 7 Chevrolet is on a bit of a heater right now in this style of racing. Lajoie is riding a three-race superspeedway Top-10 streak into Sunday's GEICO 500. The veteran driver grabbed an impressive fourth-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500 and a fourth-place finish in last October's YellaWood 500 at Talladega, which was the last time the Cup Series visited this track.  

Bubba Wallace – The 2021 Talladega winner has always had a knack for superspeedway racing. Although his performances at Daytona have tended to be better than his Talladega efforts. Still, the speed that the No. 23 Toyota team showed to start this season in the Daytona 500 is difficult to ignore. Wallace qualified mid-pack, but led 3 laps and raced among the leaders to finish an impressive fifth-place in the Daytona 500. That's been emblematic of his past couple seasons on superspeedway ovals. In the last nine combined Daytona and Talladega events, the 23XI Racing driver has a steady average finish of 14.9 and 75 laps led. He knows how to get to the front in these races and critically, when to make his move.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star has never been a big-time performer at the Talladega oval. With just three Top-10 finishes in 18-career starts the 17-percent Top-10 rate will discourage most players from deploying Larson in the GEICO 500 and for good reason. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet as crashed and DNF'd in four of his last eight Talladega starts. His career average finish now stands at a lofty 22.9 at this oval. Larson's last three Talladega starts have netted 18th-, 33rd- and 15th-place finishes. Despite his big victory at Las Vegas earlier this season and his big short track performances in recent weeks, we suggest benching Larson this week given his struggles in this style of racing.  

Tyler Reddick – Reddick had been on fire the last several weeks and is riding a four-race Top-10 streak into Talladega this week. There's likely good reason to fade the 23XI Racing driver this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway. Reddick's not had much luck finishing these races the past couple years. Four of his last nine starts between Daytona and Talladega have ended as DNF's. That includes his crash and 29th-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500. Poor luck and a lack of speed led to him running in the mid-pack when disaster struck in that race. His last Talladega start was no less disappointing. Reddick earned a 16th-place finish at the central Alabama oval last October. With a 25-percent Top-10 rate at Talladega and 21.5 average finish, he's a driver to looks past this weekend.

Ross Chastain – Despite some success in 2022 on the superspeedway ovals and even a victory at Talladega in the spring of that season, we recommend passing on Chastain and the No. 1 Chevrolet team this weekend. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has cooled considerably over the past year on the big tracks. Chastain has finishes of 23rd-, 17th-, 37th- and 21st-place in his last four starts between Daytona and Talladega. The veteran driver has led some laps during that time (36 total) but he's found finishing these races very difficult. His career numbers at Talladega Superspeedway now stand at two Top-10 finishes in 10-career starts for a lowly 20-percent Top-10 rate at the central Alabama track.     

Martin Truex Jr. – While 2024 has been turning more and more positive for Truex the last few weeks, there are the odd occasions to let the Joe Gibbs Racing star take a seat on the bench. This would be one of those instances. Superspeedway racing is just one of those areas where Truex struggles. The veteran driver has just two Top-10 finishes in his last nine starts between Daytona and Talladega. Truex has just one Top-10 finishes in his last 16 Talladega starts, and that has brought his career Top-10 average at the oval down to just 24-percent. That's compared against a staggering 13 DNF's at the central Alabama oval.  Don't be tempted into deploying Truex in the GEICO 500.