Food City 500 Preview: World's Fastest Half Mile

After a good weekend of competitive racing in Phoenix, we head back East this week and return to the roots of NASCAR, and more short track racing. We take a trip to the "World's Fastest Half Mile" at Bristol Motor Speedway for this weekend's Food City 500. Bristol's half-mile oval with 36-degree corner banking makes it one of the most unique tracks on the circuit. This bull ring will not only test driver's skill but their patience as well. Trading paint and short tempers are the norm at BMS. When you put 36 of the world's best and most competitive drivers in this half-mile mixing bowl, contact and hard racing are a natural result. Avoiding a poor qualifying run and bad starting spot on the grid is very important here. Much like the superspeedways, you don't want to be in the eye of the storm when things go wrong. The teams that can pull off the right handling setup and qualify up front will likely stay out of the worst part of the battle in this 500-lap event. You don't want to deal with the handicap of starting beyond mid-pack and having to navigate the field as the leader is bearing down on your rear bumper. Since this will be our first time racing this spring event on pavement in four years at the Tennessee short track, there are some unknowns entering the weekend. NASCAR has raced on a dirt surface here since 2021, so the change back to pavement will be a big wrinkle in forecasting this weekend. 

Since this is just the second of the season's true short track races, we'll have to put a lot of emphasis on the historical data as well as the current hot streaks to get a feel for this weekend's top drivers. Last Sunday's Phoenix race was a short track event, but nothing at all like the action we'll see this weekend in the Bristol mixing bowl. Recent statistics at Bristol Motor Speedway will be an invaluable tool in evaluating our driver lineup.  That information combined with who has the hot hand right now will be our primary indicators.  The loop stats in the table below span the last 34 races at Bristol Motor Speedway. This will be a dependable set of data to judge the best of the short track drivers in the series. 

Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota drivers have each won at the half-mile oval in the past three seasons on the pavement. Denny Hamlin snagged the win last fall for Toyota. Kyle Larson has the lone Chevy victory three seasons ago, and Ford was last in victory lane at Bristol when Chris Buescher won the 2022 Bass Pro Shops/NRA Night Race. When the series last visited Bristol last September it was Hamlin outsmarting the field and holding off Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell to take his third-career victory at Bristol Motor Speedway for Toyota. He's now second in wins among active drivers at Bristol Motor Speedway with those three victories. With Hamlin's shaky start to this season, we'll see if he can carry that success forward to kick start his 2024 campaign. However, there are several strong suitors from the Chevrolet side of the ledger. Larson's name immediately comes to mind with his one-career Bristol victory and three runner-up finishes. The Hendrick Motorsports star has already scratched the win column this young season and is always a major threat on short tracks. William Byron and Chase Elliott will also carry a lot of weight for the bowtie brand this weekend, but to a lesser extent. The Ford drivers that will draw a lot of scrutiny this weekend will be Chris Buescher, Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski. This trio have had the most recent success at the Bristol short track and are each off to good starts to this season. We'll lay out the streaking drivers and the short track experts and give you the drivers to dominate your fantasy league at Bristol Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Those in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – With one win and three runner-up finishes at Bristol since 2018 to go along with over 500 laps led, Larson has probably been the sharpest driver in recent seasons at Bristol Motor Speedway. His average finish at the Tennessee short track during this span is an eye-popping 5.3. It's really a wonder that Larson and the No. 5 team haven't converted more of these 500-lap Bristol battles into wins. But he's clearly one of the upper echelon performers here. Larson has already broken through to victory lane in the first four races of the season (Las Vegas) and he's performing very well at his better tracks. The return from dirt to pavement should suit Larson very well. Every time he starts here, he's a major threat to win.     

Denny Hamlin – The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is a three-time Bristol winner and he has four-career poles and 10 Top-5 finishes at the Tennessee short track. That works out to a strong 30-percent Top-5 rate at Bristol Motor Speedway for Hamlin. While he's tended to be a better night race performer here than the day Spring race, he's still had his share of Bristol success in the early-season installment. Hamlin rides a three-race Bristol Top-10 streak into this weekend's action, including his victory at Bristol last September. The veteran driver led 142 laps and dominated the last time the Cup Series visited the high banks of Bristol. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is coming off a pole position and 68 laps led this past week at Phoenix and is clearly getting sharper with each race this season.

Christopher Bell –  This past week's Phoenix winner served notice that he'll be a factor on the circuit's short tracks. Bell took over late in last Sunday's Shriners Children's 500 and ran away to a big win in the Arizona desert. For an encore, Bell and the No. 20 Toyota team will take on a Bristol oval where they've had recent success. He won last season's race on dirt at the Bristol short track, but more importantly, Bell's last two starts on pavement at BMS have netted one pole position, 330 laps led and a pair of Top-5 finishes. This driver and team have been inching closer and closer to Bell's first win on the Bristol pavement, and this weekend his time may have finally arrived.

Chris Buescher – Buescher languished at this challenging half-mile oval for many years, but his recent move to Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing has jump started his performance at Bristol. In five starts with the No. 17 Ford team he has one win, two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes on the Bristol pavement. Buescher's last start at Bristol Motor Speedway yielded an impressive fourth-place finish in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race last September. He doesn't qualify particularly well here (23.1 average start) but don't let that deter you from fantasy lineup deployment. Buescher has shown a knack for driving through the field to earn Top-5 finishes and lead laps here.  

Solid Plays – Those who are an almost lock for a Top 10, and an outside shot at the win

Kyle Busch – Coming to Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend, Busch is looking to find some consistency and build some momentum to start the season. He's had good speed through the first four events, but the finishes have not followed to this point. He's the active wins leader at Bristol Motor Speedway with eight total victories. The last of those eight wins came in 2019. That is only bolstered by the fact that Busch cracks the Top 5 at BMS at a strong 41-percent rate and he's tallied over to 2,500 laps led at Bristol for his career. The Richard Childress Racing star's short track success is an impressive resume at multiple tracks, including Bristol Motor Speedway.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski is a three-time winner at the Bristol oval, and as recently as the 2020 season. While this isn't his most consistent short track, the owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has enjoyed some terrific success at BMS. Keselowski has led over 1,00-career laps at the half-mile Tennessee track, so we're used to seeing him race up front here over his career. The 36-percent Top-10 rate is a bit lower than we like to see for a solid plays driver, but most recently he's cracking the Top 10 at Bristol at a 67-percent rate since 2019. Keselowski is coming off a strong fourth-place finish this past Sunday at Phoenix, and that's a good sign that he and this race team are getting thing pointed in the right direction.     

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is not a top Bristol performer, historically speaking. His 36-percent Top-10 rate at the Tennessee short track would drop him below normal solid play recommendation. However, the reigning Cup Series champion has started the 2024 campaign on a heater. Blaney has grabbed three Top-5 finishes in the first four events and sits a lofty first-place in the championship points coming to Bristol. The Penske Racing star has five-career Top 10's at BMS and has led close to 500 laps at the half-mile oval. Blaney's last Top 10 at the track came in 2021, so it has been recent. Coming off an impressive fifth-place finish at Phoenix this past week, we have high expectations for this driver and team in the Food City 500.

William Byron – The Hendrick Motorsports star didn't have a great performance at Phoenix this past week, but Byron should rebound nicely at Bristol Motor Speedway this Sunday. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has had some pretty nice consistency and success at Bristol Motor Speedway in recent outings. Four of his last five starts on the Bristol pavement have netted Top-10 finishes and he rides a three-race Bristol Top-10 streak into this weekend. Byron is off to a good start this season with his Daytona 500 win and Top-10 finish at Las Vegas recently. He enters the weekend a lofty fourth-place in the driver point standings. Byron should keep his short track success going Sunday at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Sleepers – Those who have a good history at Bristol, and can give you a solid finish

Chase Elliott – Despite some handsome stats at Bristol Motor Speedway, we've tempered our expectations a bit for the No. 9 Chevrolet team at BMS. Elliott has seven-career Top 10's here for a decent 54-percent Top-10 rate and sharp 11.9 average finish. He's led over 400 laps at this half-mile oval and rides a two-race Bristol Top-10 streak into this weekend. However, Elliott hasn't started the season quite on fire just yet. In fact, he's yet to crack the Top 10 through four events. That stated, he has been Top 15 in three of the four events to date. Elliott's stats and current streak at Bristol make him a fantasy worthy start for the Food City 500, but clearly he won't be one of the top contenders this weekend.

Ty Gibbs – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster is on fire to start the season. Gibbs has three Top 10's in the first four events and is coming of a stellar third-place finish at Phoenix this past Sunday. He rides fifth-place in the driver standings coming into the Food City 500. Gibbs has just two Cup Series starts on pavement at Bristol Motor Speedway. The debut was forgettable, but his effort last September was pretty spectacular.  The driver of the No. 54 Toyota qualified a strong eighth on the grid, led 102 laps and finished fifth-place in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. That performance really stands out and it's great considering that it's this driver and team's last look at the high banks of Bristol. Considering his great start to the season we expect big things for Gibbs this weekend.     

Tyler Reddick – After a slow start on the big ovals, Reddick seems to be getting his act together after visits to Las Vegas and Phoenix. The 23XI Racing youngster earned second- and 10th-place finishes in those events and has climbed to fifth in the driver standings as a result. Reddick doesn't have stellar Bristol stats to his credit. He sports just a 20-percent Top-10 rate and subpar 18.4 average finish at the Tennessee short track. However, his good string of momentum that is building and his performance last week at Phoenix are fresh on our minds. Reddick qualified well, led 68 laps and forged an impressive Top-10 at that flat Arizona oval. All good signs that bode well ahead of the Food City 500.   

Michael McDowell – McDowell had been a terrible career performer at Bristol Motor Speedway. That is that he had been until the 2020 season and NASCAR's move to the newest generation stock car. In his last five starts on the pavement at Bristol, the Front Row Motorsports veteran has earned two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes for an eye-popping 13.0 average finish across the five-race span. That is dramatically better than his career long average of 27.9. McDowell's last two Bristol efforts have netted 11th- and sixth-place finishes. Coming off a strong eighth-place finish at Phoenix this past week, we believe McDowell will be one of the steady fantasy racing plays at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Erik Jones – Jones has always had a knack for the Bristol short track. Across three different race teams in his Cup Series career, he's earned four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes for a solid 14.3 average finish on the World's Fastest Half-Mile. The driver of the No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota has started the season reasonably well. Jones has one Top 10 and two Top-15 finishes thus far and comes to Tennessee ranked 17th in the driver standings this week. The veteran driver qualified well at Phoenix this past weekend, but ran into troubles during the Shriners Children's 500 and didn't get the finish he deserved. Jones will look to rebound this Sunday in the Food City 500. Given his success at this short track over the years, he should be set up for a good performance.     

Noah Gragson – With two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in the first four events, the start to the 2024 season couldn't have gone any better for Gragson and his new No. 10 Ford race team. The young driver is coming off a gritty 12th-place performance at Phoenix this past week and looking to continue turning heads at Bristol Motor Speedway. This will be Gragson's Cup Series debut on the Bristol pavement. He has two forgettable Cup starts on the Bristol dirt, but that's all right as that is a completely different animal compared to this weekend. The young Stewart Haas Racing driver had very impressive Xfinity Series numbers at Bristol Motor Speedway with two wins and four Top-10 finishes in six-career starts. Those are very encouraging stats ahead of his Cup debut on the pavement at Bristol this weekend. 

Slow Down – Drivers to Avoid This Week

Joey Logano – The talented Penske Racing driver has had a tough start to the 2024 season. Despite having fast cars and leading laps, Logano has just one Top 10 through four events and he struggled tremendously at Phoenix this past week. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has led over 600 laps since 2012 at the Bristol oval, and collected two wins. However, more recent appearances have been very disappointing. Logano has no Top-10 finishes in his last six Bristol starts and the last two years have been particularly rough with finishes of 27th- and 34th-place. This is the combination of a struggling driver and visiting a struggling race track for he and the No. 22 Ford team. Logano is a hard pass this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. – Most short tracks really never have been Truex's cup of tea. However, he's shown tremendous improvement at Martinsville and Richmond in recent seasons.  Still, Bristol Motor Speedway has been more of a place of challenges than rewards for the Joe Gibbs Racing star. Truex has just four Top-10 finishes in 33-career starts at the World's Fastest Half Mile. Only one of those Top 10's has come since the 2018 season. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota is currently riding a two-race Bristol Top-10 drought into this weekend's action, and one of those two finishes were a DNF.  Considering how this driver and team are racing right now, there's not much chance of a reversal of recent Bristol norms. 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – While Stenhouse had a "sweet spot" in his career at Bristol between 2014 and 2018, that has run its course and is well over. The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran has just one Top 10 in his last eight starts on the Bristol Motor Speedway pavement. That has lowered his career Top-10 average there to just 37-percent and inflated the average finish to 17.8. If this past week's 21st-place finish at Phoenix is any indicator, the driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet could be in for another lean weekend of racing in the Food City 500. Stenhouse is currently 20th in the driver points and is riding an 18.8 average finish for the season into Bristol. We expect superspeedways and intermediate ovals to be his best producing tracks this season, and not the series' short tracks.

Austin Cindric – Cindric has always been a better superspeedway and road course performer than short track driver. He has two-career starts on the Bristol pavement and they are 20th- and 32nd-place finishes the last two seasons. Those tend to validate the assertion. The driver of the No. 2 Ford has just one Top 10 in four starts to the begin the season, so struggles have been plenty outside the superspeedways. Cindric crashed early in the race this past week at Phoenix and finished a disappointing 36th-place in the Shriners Children's 500. We believe putting this driver and team on the bench this week is the right move. Save Cindric's next start for Talladega later this spring.