First Data 500 Preview: NASCAR's Elite 8

This week we visit the circuit's shortest track, kicking off the Round of 8 in the Chase for the Cup at  Martinsville Speedway, nestled in the foothills of southern Virginia.  After visiting superspeedways and intermediate ovals for most of the Chase, we swing to the other extreme for this week's First Data 500. With the big shift in racing style, the drivers had better be prepared for the surprises that the bullring at Martinsville will provide.

Martinsville Speedway is best described as a "paperclip" shaped track for its twin 800 foot straight-aways capped with hair-pin corners banked at a modest 12 degrees.  Racing at Martinsville requires mental toughness, physical stamina, and razor sharp concentration, and that doesn't even include the durability of your equipment which takes a brutal pounding on this abusive small oval.  So, survival will be the name of the game this weekend as the Chase drivers take to the short track in southern Virginia.  Martinsville Speedway demands the ultimate performance from both the driver and the car, so it is fitting that this bullring is one of the pivotal races that crowns NASCAR's champion.  Some of the top contenders for this season's championship are excellent short track drivers, so we should see some real fireworks at the front of the pack this Sunday afternoon.  For those eight fortunate drivers advancing to the Round of 8 of the Chase, the stakes will be very high in this 500-lap brawl.  Among those are the Joe Gibbs Racing teams of Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin.  Busch and Truex have been improving dramatically at the Virginia short track in recent seasons.  Last weekend's winner, Hamlin, is a five-time Martinsville winner.  So these Toyota drivers appear to be in line for a major championship boost this Sunday.

 Let's take a quick look at the recent history of Martinsville Speedway.  We have a select group of drivers that rise above the field on short tracks, and we expect to see them running up front on Sunday.  As the loop stats will illustrate, there's a group of the usual suspects we expect to dominate short track racing at the top.  Among these are Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch.  The trio have combined to win 16 races at this small oval.  So these guys will be among the contenders to win the First Data 500.  In the table below are the loop stats for the last 29 races at Martinsville Speedway.

A lot has happened since the last race at Martinsville Speedway in March of this year.  Martin Truex Jr. got on a roll and won four out of eight races in the spring and early summer.  Justin Haley pulled his surprising, upset victory at Daytona Fourth of July weekend.  Alex Bowman nabbed his first-career Cup Series win at Chicago.  Chase Elliott orchestrated a comeback win for the ages at the Charlotte Roval.  Brad Keselowski was shockingly eliminated from the Chase field after Kansas this past week.  Kyle Larson snapped a 75-race winless streak with his big Dover victory during the Chase.  Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney are trying desperately to keep pace with the top championship contenders entering this event, so they'll be racing for the win on Sunday at Martinsville to keep those hopes alive.  All-in-all it has been a wild season of NASCAR racing since the last time we visited the historic Virginia short track. 

If this week's race plays out like the spring installment at Martinsville, we should be in for some similar action.  Penske Racing star, Brad Keselowski, would dominate almost the entirety of the race and lead 446 laps en route to his second-career win at Martinsville Speedway.  It capped just three lead changes on the day, which was a NASCAR modern era record low at the oval.  There's good reason to believe we could see a similar scenario develop in Sunday's First Data 500.  The recent short track race at Richmond Raceway produced just six lead changes despite the stage racing which tends to shuffle the deck a few times during the event.  Joe Gibbs Racing finished 1-2-3 in that Richmond race, so all eyes will be on the No. 18, No. 19 and No. 11 Toyotas this Sunday afternoon.  We'll examine the short track specialists who thrive on small ovals like Martinsville, and give you the tips that will help you win your fantasy league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Coming off the big Kansas win, Hamlin comes to Virginia with his best shot at winning the championship in years.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has won five-career victories at Martinsville Speedway, and he's led over 1,500-career laps at the half-mile oval.  A win here would lock him into the championship round at Homestead in a few weeks.  The No. 11 Toyota team has won here as recently as the 2015 season and his career 52-percent Top-5 rate at Martinsville speaks volumes.  Hamlin finished runner-up in this event one year ago, and he finished fifth-place at Martinsville in the spring.  This driver and team are on fire right now, and visiting Hamlin's best short track. 

Kyle Busch – The Round of 8 begins and Busch has his game face on.  He was all business last week at Kansas finishing third in the Hollywood Casino 400, and now he sets his sights on a championship round qualifying win at Martinsville Speedway.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota has been improving dramatically at this track since the 2015 season.  Busch has two wins, 16 Top-5 and 17 Top-10 finishes in 28-career visits to the Virginia short track.  He's led well over 1,400-career laps at the facility, and most of those have come in the past six seasons.  Busch's two wins have come in the last seven starts, and he rides a jaw-dropping eight-race Martinsville Top-5 streak into this weekend's action.  There's no doubt about it, the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing team will factor in the outcome of this 500-lap battle.

Martin Truex Jr. – The pressure to advance into the next round of the Chase will definitely be a motivator for this driver and team, although Truex has never won at Martinsville Speedway.  He's not quite the 500 lb. gorilla on short tracks that he is on intermediate ovals.  Still, his Martinsville resume has improved dramatically since 2015.  In his last six visits to south central Virginia, Truex has nabbed two poles, led 211 laps, and claimed two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes.  Prior to this recent streak the Joe Gibbs Racing star only had six Top-10 finishes in his first 21 starts at Martinsville Speedway.  This surge in performance has roughly paralleled the improvement in teams that he's experienced.  Truex will run up front and challenge the Top-5, with a modest chance at surprising for the win. 

Chase Elliott – Now that we're racing for all the marbles the best is coming out of young Elliott and the No. 9 team.  He's claimed one pole, one victory, one runner-up finish and four Top-10 finishes during the Chase.  Elliott appears focused like a laser beam on the prize.  This will be just his ninth-career start at Martinsville, so we don't have a lot of data to review.  However, he had a very strong outing here in the spring of this season.  Elliott led 49 laps and was one of the few drivers who could keep pace with Brad Keselowski.  Elliott finished second that afternoon in March for his career-best Martinsville finish.  The young Hendrick Motorsports star is not to be underestimated in this Sunday's First Data 500.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski doesn't have the resume that some other Monster Energy Cup drivers have at this short track, but he's been building it rapidly the past few seasons.  He has two victories and seven Top-10 finishes in the last seven starts at Martinsville Speedway.  The last of those two wins came in his start here in March.  Keselowski led 446 laps and dominated the STP 500.  The Penske Racing star has been well known for his short track prowess during his 10 seasons of competition.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford is eliminated from the Chase, but his desire to finish well and perform with the best in the series this weekend is at a high point.  We look for Keselowski to race with the leaders this weekend.

Kevin Harvick – It's been a great season for the No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing team, and Harvick has his intentions set on claiming another championship in these final four races of 2019.  While Harvick has been anything but consistent of late, he has been pretty fast each weekend he unloads the car from hauler and that's half the battle.  Martinsville Speedway is one of those facilities that have been an up-and-down affair for the veteran driver.  Harvick has one-career victory and 18 Top-10 finishes at the paperclip in Virginia.  With a win guaranteeing an automatic spot in the final-four championship contenders at Homestead in a few weeks, and coming off a Top-10 Kansas performance we believe Harvick will elevate his game this Sunday afternoon.

Clint Bowyer – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has been far more consistent of late, but he was still eliminated from the Chase after Kansas last Sunday.  The good news is that we're visiting one of his better short tracks this weekend.  Bowyer's last Martinsville start in March was a good performance in which he qualified 10th on the starting grid and raced to an impressive seventh-place finish in the STP 500.  He now has 16 Top 10's in 27-career starts at this oval, which is a strong 59-percent rate.  Bower has four Top-10 finishes in his last five Martinsville starts, so he's been even sharper recently.  You can bet that the team will bring a similar set up and the same speed they brought to Virginia in March for the STP 500.  Bowyer knows this event is one more good chance for him to grab a victory in 2019, and he'll race with that urgency.  

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star comes to Martinsville looking to end a three-race Top-10 drought, and looking to keep advancing in the Chase for the Cup.  Logano will look to take his first step towards Homestead this weekend, and hopeful to challenge for his second championship.  The driver of the No. 22 Ford has been fast in recent Martinsville Speedway outings.  He has five poles, three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in his last nine starts at this facility.  Logano qualified on the pole position, led some laps, but finished poorly in March at Martinsville.  With so much more on the line in this race, Logano should fetch the finish he deserves in Sunday's First Data 500.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Martinsville & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – Blaney struggled in his first three starts at Martinsville Speedway, but the young driver has begun to turn the corner at this facility the past couple seasons.  His last four starts have yielded three Top-10 finishes.  That includes Blaney's impressive fourth-place finish at the Martinsville oval in March of this year.  Short tracks have been a real challenge for Penske Racing driver Blaney, but we've begun to see this turn in the opposite direction since the 2018 season.  We can only imagine that the notes and the setup from March's STP 500 are still fresh in Blaney and crew chief Jeremy Bullins' note book.  They should be strong again in Sunday's First Data 500. 

Kurt Busch – Despite being a two-time Martinsville winner, this short track really hasn't been one of Busch's best ovals.  With only six Top-10 finishes in 38-career starts, he checks in at a lowly 16-percent rate and 20.8 average finish.  However, there has been some very positive signs in recent outings.  Busch's last three starts have yielded 11th-, sixth- and 12th-place finishes.  By no means are these stunning performances, but they do show that the 19-season veteran has found something to help navigate the challenging paperclip.  Coming off Top-10 finishes in two of his last three races, Busch is riding some good consistency into the foothills of Virginia this week.  He brings a good upside prospect with him into this 500-lap battle.    

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has every motivation to perform well in this Sunday's First Data 500.  Almirola is eliminated from the Chase, but is using these final four races of 2019 to get primed for next season.  Martinsville Speedway has not been his best short track over the years, but he hasn't been all bad here either.  In fact, his last three finishes there have been three Top-15's and one Top 10.  Almirola was a steady ninth-place in March's STP 500, and that's been about his high water mark at Martinsville of late.  We expect the notes taken during that outing to be very helpful to the No. 10 SHR team in Sunday's First Data 500. 

Jimmie Johnson – Our seven-time Monster Energy Cup Series champion is a nine-time winner at Martinsville, and has led well over 2,800 career laps at the paperclip-shaped track.  Johnson has been eliminated from the Chase, so championship hopes are not in the picture.  However, his years of performance at this oval is unquestionable.  Johnson seems to have slipped from atop his dominant pedestal at Martinsville Speedway.  He no longer is the driver to beat each time we visit here.  However, he's been a steady performer here the last three seasons.  With four Top-15 finishes in his last five starts, this track yields good, but not great performances for the No. 48 Chevrolet team. 

Ryan Newman – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran isn't a part of the championship picture, but he has had some good finishes during the Chase.  Newman has two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in the last six events.  He comes to a short track that has held a lot of success for him over the years.  Martinsville Speedway has yielded three poles, one victory and 16 Top-10 finishes to the driver of the No. 6 Ford Mustang.  Newman has been sharp even in recent visits to the paperclip with two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last five trips to Southern Virginia.  In this event one year ago the veteran driver finished eighth-place, and that has been pretty much the high water mark of late for Newman at this facility.  He should be a Top-15 finisher again this Sunday afternoon.    

Daniel Suarez – The young Stewart Haas Racing driver is looking to overcome back-to-back DNF's at Kansas and Talladega the past two weeks.  Martinsville Speedway seems the appropriate set up for Suarez to rebound.  He was a Top-10 finisher in our last short track event, which was at Richmond a few weeks ago early in the playoffs.  The last two Martinsville starts have fetched ninth- and 10th-place finishes for the driver of the No. 41 Ford.  That gives Suarez two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his five-career starts at Martinsville Speedway, or a respectable average finish of 16.8.  Suarez brings Top-10 potential and relative security in fantasy racing deployment this weekend.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Larson – For Larson the Chase for the Cup continues at Martinsville Speedway this week, however, this has been one of his worst ovals on the circuit.  In 11-career starts at the Virginia speedway, the Chip Ganassi Racing star has only grabbed 23 laps led and one Top-10 finish vs. four DNF's.  Statistically speaking, Martinsville is Larson's worst oval in just about every measure.  He tends to qualify well here (12.6 average start), but don't let qualifying dupe you into fantasy racing deployment.  Larson finished 37th in this event one year ago, and he finished a subpar 18th here in spring's STP 500.  His 23.6 career average finish at Martinsville Speedway sounds about the right mark for Sunday's First Data 500.

Darrell Wallace Jr. – This has been a long, tough season for the Richard Petty Motorsports youngster.  While Wallace has had some successes along the way, and many things to celebrate, there have been a lot of bumps in the road too.  In particular, Wallace is struggling to close out the season.  With only one Top-20 finish in his last four starts, the young driver has settled to a lowly 28th-place in the driver point standings entering this weekend.  Wallace's three-career efforts at this historic short track have yielded one Top-20 and two finishes outside the Top-30.  Coming off the crash and DNF at Kansas this past week, we have to wonder if Wallace is up to the Martinsville challenge. 

Erik Jones – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been a real fantasy racing asset this season on the intermediate ovals.  However, Jones' performance on the short tracks has been more miss than hit.  Despite coming off a seventh-place finish at Kansas this past weekend, we have to recommend against starting the No. 20 Toyota team at the Martinsville short track.  Jones has five-career starts here and just two Top-20 finishes vs. three outside the Top 20.  His effort at this oval in March of this year resulted in a disappointing 30th-place finish.  Just staying on the lead lap here has been a challenge for the driver of the No. 20 Toyota.  Jones has some fantasy racing appeal in the coming events like Texas and Homestead, but this is clearly a week to put him on the bench and save those starts for later. 

William Byron – Byron was eliminated from the Chase this past week at Kansas Speedway, but it wasn't for lack of effort.  He grabbed a strong fifth-place finish in the Hollywood Casino 400.  That was one of three Top 10's Byron snared during the Chase, in an all-out effort to advance in the playoffs.  However, the points fell short and now he's racing out the season for the best standings finish he can achieve.  Byron will face a tall task at Martinsville Speedway.  In three prior starts the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has finishes of 20th-, 39th- and 22nd-place.  He hasn't been able to stay on the lead lap, and he's struggled to find passing room on this small oval.  Despite his recent good racing, Byron is an underperform candidate at Martinsville Speedway.